Official Government Shutdown 2023 Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

Same. And why would Dems want McCarthy as speaker? He just authorized impeachment. Every day shut down is worse for Republicans, and closer to a decent budget for Dems

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don't see this shutdown lasting longer than 10-15 days. House Dems and moderate republicans have already said they are willing to support a short term clean CR. they just can't get McCarthy to bring the bill to the floor because he will lose his speakership (unless dems support him). With this, the pressure would be on McCarthy to put his ego and ambitions aside and just bring that bill to the floor. Republicans will already lose the narrative as they always do with shutdowns, but this could be catastrophic for them and McCarthy if they don't accept the bi-partisian approach here.

Also, I don't understand McCarthy. He already supported the bi-partisian debt deal. That's what started this trouble for him with the freedom caucus. Dude you are already on the books for supporting the bi-partisian budget deal. and this shutdown will end with a bi-partisian agreement. so let the crazies challenge your speakership. cut a deal with moderate dems to save yourself.

But if government shuts down then, why would people be motivated to even pass a CR then?

Well, if Biden takes the Obama route and really shuts down the government then people are going to notice. In recent shutdowns past they've been really short or the definition of essential has been pretty broad. I remember two during the Trump Administration. During the long one the definition of essential for my agency was very broad (or stretched to be so) and I don't think any of us were furloughed. During the short one we were deliberately given no guidance and it was chaotic. We were never told to go home so most people just stayed.

In contrast, during the one in 2013 people actually were furloughed and things actually shut down. I think it's pretty well agreed that the Republicans took the hit for that. In this case, it's already agreed that we are at this particular point because of GOP legislators. I don't think a shutdown is going to change that calculus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

right! but also after 2 missed checks this will have to end. There is no DOD appropriation. Military wives ain't going more than 30 days with no check. this will get really ugly for republicans. McCarthy should just give in now and support the deal passed through the debt ceiling negotiations. That is more favorable for republicans than what they will get if we have to endure a 2 week to 30 day+ shutdown.

[Anonymous]

yeah I don't get republicans. they literally will get nothing if they shut us down beyond a week. After that, democrats have the upper hand. in 1995 they got nothing. in 2013, they got nothing. in 2018/2019 they got nothing. maybe if they didn't try so hard to erase history, they'd learn something and get smarter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:yeah I don't get republicans. they literally will get nothing if they shut us down beyond a week. After that, democrats have the upper hand. in 1995 they got nothing. in 2013, they got nothing. in 2018/2019 they got nothing. maybe if they didn't try so hard to erase history, they'd learn something and get smarter.

+1,000,000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

The thing about being the party of grown-ups is what's in it for them is not wrecking the country. That's now only a Democratic value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don't see this shutdown lasting longer than 10-15 days. House Dems and moderate republicans have already said they are willing to support a short term clean CR. they just can't get McCarthy to bring the bill to the floor because he will lose his speakership (unless dems support him). With this, the pressure would be on McCarthy to put his ego and ambitions aside and just bring that bill to the floor. Republicans will already lose the narrative as they always do with shutdowns, but this could be catastrophic for them and McCarthy if they don't accept the bi-partisian approach here.

Also, I don't understand McCarthy. He already supported the bi-partisian debt deal. That's what started this trouble for him with the freedom caucus. Dude you are already on the books for supporting the bi-partisian budget deal. and this shutdown will end with a bi-partisian agreement. so let the crazies challenge your speakership. cut a deal with moderate dems to save yourself.

But if government shuts down then, why would people be motivated to even pass a CR then?

Well, if Biden takes the Obama route and really shuts down the government then people are going to notice. In recent shutdowns past they've been really short or the definition of essential has been pretty broad. I remember two during the Trump Administration. During the long one the definition of essential for my agency was very broad (or stretched to be so) and I don't think any of us were furloughed. During the short one we were deliberately given no guidance and it was chaotic. We were never told to go home so most people just stayed.

In contrast, during the one in 2013 people actually were furloughed and things actually shut down. I think it's pretty well agreed that the Republicans took the hit for that. In this case, it's already agreed that we are at this particular point because of GOP legislators. I don't think a shutdown is going to change that calculus.

.

The Trump people violated the Anti-Deficiency Act on some things like National Parks but of course the findings weren’t made until after the shutdown was over. Doing that again would be a knowing violation which iirc is a felony.

[Anonymous]

Seems like folks wouldn't miss a paycheck for two weeks after the shutdown as payday is this Friday so there's some room before people start getting angry. And by people I basically mean the military because that's the only group people seem to care about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like folks wouldn't miss a paycheck for two weeks after the shutdown as payday is this Friday so there's some room before people start getting angry. And by people I basically mean the military because that's the only group people seem to care about.

Out of curiosity, I looked at my pay stubs from the October 2013 shutdown, which lasted from the 1st through the 16th. In addition to being paid at the beginning of the shutdown (official pay date October 3, payment for pay period that ended 9/21), I also received a mid-shutdown paycheck for the six days I worked between the end of the prior pay period and the beginning of the shutdown (official pay date 10/17, but it hit my bank account the prior weekend).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can federal employees apply for unemployment if we are furloughed? Do we qualify if we can't see other jobs, since legal won't be able to approve a second job?

My understanding is yes but you have to pay it back once you get paid right?

It’s state dependent. But in general, this is the corrrect answer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

Same. And why would Dems want McCarthy as speaker? He just authorized impeachment. Every day shut down is worse for Republicans, and closer to a decent budget for Dems

Dems protected McCarhy in debt ceiling vote. The probably would on a clean CR too— because he’s the best bad option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like folks wouldn't miss a paycheck for two weeks after the shutdown as payday is this Friday so there's some room before people start getting angry. And by people I basically mean the military because that's the only group people seem to care about.

We would get paid this Friday, and then receive a partial paycheck two weeks from then, IF our agencies process it before the government shuts down. I don’t want a shutdown at all, because I feel like it will be at least a month long if it happens, which is horrible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

Same. And why would Dems want McCarthy as speaker? He just authorized impeachment. Every day shut down is worse for Republicans, and closer to a decent budget for Dems

Yeah, from my understanding they're not coming back until Tuesday and that's so they can start impeachment proceedings which is just absolutely bonkers. I'm hoping I've missed something because it doesn't seem like an easy pivot from that to a bipartisan CR.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't see what's in it for the Democrats to bail out the republicans who can't get their sh*t together. Wouldn't it have to be a pretty favorable budget for the democrats? I just don't see it happening.

Same. And why would Dems want McCarthy as speaker? He just authorized impeachment. Every day shut down is worse for Republicans, and closer to a decent budget for Dems

Yeah, from my understanding they're not coming back until Tuesday and that's so they can start impeachment proceedings which is just absolutely bonkers. I'm hoping I've missed something because it doesn't seem like an easy pivot from that to a bipartisan CR.

Nope. You understand correctly. And they will absolutely continuE the impeachment inqUiry during a shutdown, rather than try to resolve the shutdown.

BTW— the House didn’t vote for the impeachment inquiry either. ThE vote would have failed the House.

[Anonymous]

The only way for McCarthy to save his speakership is to cut a deal with the dems. He’s toast if he doesn’t. It will also deflate the FC.