Pool size for TPMS and Eastern lotteries

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

Sorry, I definitely don't trust central office to do this in a pure lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

You believe MCPS when they say it’s a lottery? I don’t. Or maybe the final selection process is a lottery, but there’s so much involvement from central office in determining who goes in it that it’s not as unbiased as they want you to think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

Yeah it’s “race blind” after they recalculate everyone’s MAP score using FARMS and EML as proxies for race.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

Yeah it’s “race blind” after they recalculate everyone’s MAP score using FARMS and EML as proxies for race.

Exactly, they re-jigger the percentiles to get the #s they want. And we don't know that it's a true lottery even then.

[Anonymous]

If your home MS school is very good AND you have the time and money to offer academic enrichment experiences outside of school, it’s probably not worth taking a spot at Eastern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If your home MS school is very good AND you have the time and money to offer academic enrichment experiences outside of school, it’s probably not worth taking a spot at Eastern.

This is where we landed this past year. Plus our son doesn't love humanities, he strongly prefers math and sciences. I also think personality wise he is better off in his home MS (and seems to be happy there this year). He does well in school but he also really loves sports and Eastern is just that much further from practices etc. I'd rather the seat go to a kid who would thrive in a humanities magnet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If your home MS school is very good AND you have the time and money to offer academic enrichment experiences outside of school, it’s probably not worth taking a spot at Eastern.

We never got in off the waitlist, but we have been good with our home middle school and hiring a tutor to supplement in ELA for literature and writing. But it is irritating that that is needed. They really should be offering an advanced English class that is actually advanced, rather than making it on level and shoving everyone in there.

[Anonymous]

If you are in bound for TPMS and in the pool of the top 15 percent you are likely to get a space. There are 25 spots and 15 percent of 250 or so kids is 37 - so at least a 2/3 chance.

[Anonymous]

I think everyone here underestimating how many people turn down spots. There considerable movement in the waitlist especially at Eastern and esp since it became a lottery

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

Sorry, I definitely don't trust central office to do this in a pure lottery.

Sadly, it doesn't matter what you believe the reality is. It's a lottery and they've explained this multiple times. The evidence also supports this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If your home MS school is very good AND you have the time and money to offer academic enrichment experiences outside of school, it’s probably not worth taking a spot at Eastern.

We never got in off the waitlist, but we have been good with our home middle school and hiring a tutor to supplement in ELA for literature and writing. But it is irritating that that is needed. They really should be offering an advanced English class that is actually advanced, rather than making it on level and shoving everyone in there.

Have you asked your MS why they don’t offer an advanced English class that is actually advanced? See what the teachers and most importantly the APs and Principal have to say.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have always been told that what is at stake is the 1st quarter grade of the 5th grade year. DC's teacher just also said to us recently that it is the main grade in the subject that is considered (not the subgrades). Has anyone else heard the same or different?

That is what has been used for the past 3 years. Prior to that, they used grades from 4th grade. They didn’t notify anyone (students, teachers, parents) that they were changing the criteria until after they conducted the review and sent out lottery results after winter break that year. So those 5th graders did not know that quarter 1 was the quarter that mattered until it was way too late. All to say that they can change the criteria at any time, they have a history of being opaque, etc. and they don’t seem to feel the need to actually communicate to families what the review process will include until they’ve already completed it.

Also, certain years kids seem to get only one offer from one magnet with no one winning the lottery from both, and other years it seems as though the lottery is run so that kids get offers from both at the same time (if in pool) and can choose. It’s never been explained.

Oh and don’t forget there is a set aside for kids in bounds for the school. A big chunk of seats are reserved for students in the zone.

That's the nature of lotteries. They're random.

You'd think, yes. And the PP should take heed that those differences year to year are natural results of probabilistic randomness across independent lotteries.

Then again, the "lottery luck" of certain families across elementary Centers for Enriched Studies and criteria-based magnet middle schools, along with the then-higher likelihood of selection to HS magnet programs strains credulity. Not impossible, but...

DCCAPS uses a third party to conduct the lotteries. One can hope that there are oversight mechanisms in place, but neither that nor transparency have been MCPS's strong suit to this point.

DP - I agree with the bolded. It's not credible to me that there's no direct input for getting certain kids into the various magnet programs, not knowing the kids we do who have consistently gotten in. MCPS has done almost nothing to build trust in a fair process. It's almost strange to me that people actually believe it's a true lottery.

What are you suggesting? That there is a conspiracy to get “certain kids” in? (Who?!!) That they are too incompetent to run a lottery that genuinely gives everyone an equal chance of selection? Something else?

Conspiracy? No. It's easy to allow elementary schools to identify a few kids who they strongly recommend for placement into one of the MS magnets. And heck, maybe they do that and then a lottery for the rest of the kids.

Given MCPS' track record, it's deeply naive to think they care about making this process a "fair" one.

Sure, but it's a lottery, so selections are name+race blind; names are picked randomly from the pool. That's the definition of a lottery.

Yeah it’s “race blind” after they recalculate everyone’s MAP score using FARMS and EML as proxies for race.

DP/a prior poster. Though race-based equity goals might have driven adoption of those particular adjustments, there are reasonable rationales that underlie them and research that backs them. Still, some similar adjustments that might address other differential conditions have not been pursued.

If there is any foot-on-the-scale selection, I'd think it would be outside of the operation of the formal lottery mechanism, though I don't know of a particular mechanism. The "lottery luck," as mentioned, could be well within expected statistical variation across a large enough population. However, MCPS OSA doesn't audit results consistently or across enough variables (e.g., family connection, a more robust/granular set of demographics, etc.) to rule out favoritism. Nor have they tracked whether those identified but not selected via lottery incur a likelihood, versus their identified-and-selected peers, of lower performance (e.g., on standardized tests) or lower chance of later selection to a criteria-based program.

Given that magnet seats are among the scarcest and most sought resources (with the perception being not only that they provide greater enrichment, but also that the differential sequellae are as described), that is one place where the system really could gain trust with the community with the kind of openness that demonstrates their commitment to meeting the needs of all students in a reasonably equivalent manner.

[Anonymous]

Any idea on when results for the tests might be known? DD took the test last year. Did they send it in some email, and I missed it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Any idea on when results for the tests might be known? DD took the test last year. Did they send it in some email, and I missed it?

Which tests? The one used for these lotteries is the MAP. Fall MAP scores are under "Documents" in ParentVue if you haven't seen the report yet. They don't come home on paper: the one that does is the MCAP, which isn't used for the middle-school programs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If your home MS school is very good AND you have the time and money to offer academic enrichment experiences outside of school, it’s probably not worth taking a spot at Eastern.

We never got in off the waitlist, but we have been good with our home middle school and hiring a tutor to supplement in ELA for literature and writing. But it is irritating that that is needed. They really should be offering an advanced English class that is actually advanced, rather than making it on level and shoving everyone in there.

Have you asked your MS why they don’t offer an advanced English class that is actually advanced? See what the teachers and most importantly the APs and Principal have to say.

They said that everyone does it and that despite the name, it's an on-level class. There is no class that offers enrichment.