2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district

This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.

You're right - I don't know where the 60% comes from. Will try to find out.

https://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/106209/web.264614/#/summary

The Trump +6.8% 2020 result is for Florida’s 13th congressional district, which has boundaries that are different from the Pinellas County lines.

Sorry, yes, meant 6.8 not 60 - thanks for the explanation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district

This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.

Biden did win Pinellas County (by only 1200 votes!) but he did not win this congressional district, which doesn’t include a whole bunch of St. Pete.

Wikipedia says he actually won that district by 4 points. So not much changed from 2020 (if you even believe a congressional district poll).

St. Pete polls are pretty good IIRC. I think the discrepancy is that the 13th district lines changes after the 2020 census.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

More on the Suffolk poll:
“The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.

“The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.”

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Unless Harris gets up to the 9-10 point range on the national polls, they are meaningless. The swing states are obviously everything and they will likely stay within the margin of error through the polling season.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

More on the Suffolk poll:
“The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.

“The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.”

When Biden first dropped out I remember hearing that Harris was much stronger amongst the “double haters” - people who didn’t like either Trump or Biden. Those are people who may have broken one way or the other or just stayed home, but she was their choice vs. Trump in much higher numbers.

[Anonymous]

Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

remind me what Nate Silver said about 2016 polls?

[Anonymous]

Post-DNC poll from Quinnipiac:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 10% in this poll. Biden was also up 10%.

This is brutal for Kamala Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unless Harris gets up to the 9-10 point range on the national polls, they are meaningless. The swing states are obviously everything and they will likely stay within the margin of error through the polling season.

There is no such thing as an Electoral College penalty. You cannot apply overperformance in a national poll to a specific state.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.

Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%).

The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%).

In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

[Anonymous]

She should be up by 8-10 percentage points after DNC.

This is very bad news to be tied.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:She should be up by 8-10 percentage points after DNC.

This is very bad news to be tied.

She literally just entered the race a little over a month ago.