2024 POTUS - polling only

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.

Biden did win Pinellas County (by only 1200 votes!) but he did not win this congressional district, which doesn’t include a whole bunch of St. Pete.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


? Which is what makes it a bellwether. Biden won pinellas and the presidency.
Anonymous
WASHINGTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday that showed the vice president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
The 4 percentage point advantage among registered voters was wider than a 1 point lead Harris held over the former president in a late July Reuters/Ipsos poll. The new poll, which was conducted in the eight days ended Wednesday and had a 2 percentage point margin of error, showed Harris picking up support among women and Hispanics.
Harris led Trump by 49% to 36% - or 13 percentage points - among both women voters and Hispanic voters. Across four Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in July, Harris had a 9 point lead among women and a 6 point lead among Hispanics.
Trump led among white voters and men, both by similar margins as in July, though his lead among voters without a college degree narrowed to 7 points in the latest survey, down from 14 points in July.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


? Which is what makes it a bellwether. Biden won pinellas and the presidency.

There are a couple of other famous bellwethers but I’m blanking on the names.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Why can't Harris win Florida? Trump has done nothing for the people of Florida.


Florida should be competitive but the Florida Democrats are bumbling fools who can’t organize their way out of a paper hat (I lived there 2016-2020). Republicans have over 100k more registered voters and have won most state elections. Florida Democratic Party needs a total overhaul.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


? Which is what makes it a bellwether. Biden won pinellas and the presidency.

Correct. Here is the official Pinellas county link showing the results.

https://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/106209/web.264614/#/summary
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


You're right - I don't know where the 60% comes from. Will try to find out.

https://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/106209/web.264614/#/summary
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


? Which is what makes it a bellwether. Biden won pinellas and the presidency.

There are a couple of other famous bellwethers but I’m blanking on the names.

This thread has a list of counties Biden flipped in 2020, a lot of them counties that Trump won and Obama won before him - I think we can consider those bellwethers.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Why can't Harris win Florida? Trump has done nothing for the people of Florida.


Florida should be competitive but the Florida Democrats are bumbling fools who can’t organize their way out of a paper hat (I lived there 2016-2020). Republicans have over 100k more registered voters and have won most state elections. Florida Democratic Party needs a total overhaul.


You should come back - Florida Dems are a lot better this year than in previous years. Nikki Fried is doing a good job, and we've got some talent in the party now. Could be better, yes, but doing better now than any other time since I moved here in 2015 (to my knowledge).
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.


You're right - I don't know where the 60% comes from. Will try to find out.

https://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/106209/web.264614/#/summary

The Trump +6.8% 2020 result is for Florida’s 13th congressional district, which has boundaries that are different from the Pinellas County lines.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

pinellas county, florida - where i live - often seen as a bellwether district


This is incorrect, Biden won Pinellas county in 2020, not trump.

Biden did win Pinellas County (by only 1200 votes!) but he did not win this congressional district, which doesn’t include a whole bunch of St. Pete.


Wikipedia says he actually won that district by 4 points. So not much changed from 2020 (if you even believe a congressional district poll).
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