What are your political predictions for 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most of you will be disappointed. Turnip will win. Rs will control both houses by small majorities.
Turnip will probably close off Texas border pronto and spend most of his administration rounding up the migrants and expelling them. FBI may be disbanded and reconfigured and heads will roll at DOJ and all the J6 protesters will be pardoned. He will cut off all funding for Ukraine overnight.

And life will go on. Nothing fascist will happen, no terrorism will happen, no civil unrests will happen.

What’s his plan to “close off the border”? A wall would take too long.

[Anonymous]

Eric Adams will get indicted and refuse to step down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden will win.

My dear misguided leftist friend, I have grave predictions for 2024 if your kind has their way. I foresee the United States turning into a socialist wasteland, overrun by illegal immigrants and politically correct snowflakes. Our great Christian values will be thrown aside for the religion of climate change alarmism. Small government and free markets will be crushed under the boot of big government taxation and regulation. In short, if you liberals get your way, America as we know it will be unrecognizable! But have no fear, true patriots will rise up and reclaim our great nation from the clutches of socialism. The silent majority will speak, my naive liberal friend! *chuckles confidently while waving tiny American flag*

Lord, MAGAs are dumber than doorknobs.

[Anonymous]

My prediction is that Trump will win, which will mean chaos inside the U.S. but one good thing for the outside - the Ukraine war will freeze and people get a break from dying

[Anonymous]

Ukraine gets its funding, but it’s going to be later than needed or necessary and that war slogs on.
Trump’s DC trial gets going by late March, wraps in April and Trump is found guilty by May. He will not actually go to jail. He will die appealing the decision. The clusterf*ck that is the gop will have a brokered convention.
Dems lay low on the campaign and just point to the dysfunctional gop and run on a slogan of “better than that”.
The WH finally makes some broad moves to address the immigrant crisis at the border, but dysfunction in the house makes meaningful legislation impossible. Americans blame Biden, but an improved economy is the bigger story, as more Americans feel the soft landing in their daily lives. Media follows with a narrative shift of less constant gloom and doom. Many think pieces on why Americans suddenly feel great about the economy are written by the people responsible for why people were not feeling great about the economy.
Americans aren’t as interested in Gaza by June.
Americans are still interested in Taylor Swift. Rumours of a fall engagement swirl.
A women dies because she’s denied life saving abortion care. Unfortunately she’s black or not a blonde white lady and the media doesn’t really care. It doesn’t rock the news cycle the way women’s rights activists hoped.

But

Women notice, not only that a women died an easily preventable death, but they notice how little the media or our established politicians seem to care. And that resentment simmers for years to come. They vote in fall 2024, and every other election until it finally dawns on whoever needs to understand it, that women demand equal protection under the constitution.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My prediction is that Trump will win, which will mean chaos inside the U.S. but one good thing for the outside - the Ukraine war will freeze and people get a break from dying

How is Ukraine being occupied by Russia a good thing?

[Anonymous]

Why do people think Harris will take over at Harvard? Did Harvard say something? So many people have predicted that. I think that is bananas. Gay is an academic lightweight and apparently a serial plagiarist to boot. But before the plagiarism, her selection drew some side-eye because she is such an academic lightweight as compared to prior presidents. Now they are having to defend the indefensible about her record primarily because she is a black woman and that is what they really wanted… a black woman. So they got they plus a lightweight plus plagiarism. I think, if Gay gets the boot or resigns, they will pick a very strong academic. Harris is not that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine gets its funding, but it’s going to be later than needed or necessary and that war slogs on.
Trump’s DC trial gets going by late March, wraps in April and Trump is found guilty by May. He will not actually go to jail. He will die appealing the decision. The clusterf*ck that is the gop will have a brokered convention.
Dems lay low on the campaign and just point to the dysfunctional gop and run on a slogan of “better than that”.
The WH finally makes some broad moves to address the immigrant crisis at the border, but dysfunction in the house makes meaningful legislation impossible. Americans blame Biden, but an improved economy is the bigger story, as more Americans feel the soft landing in their daily lives. Media follows with a narrative shift of less constant gloom and doom. Many think pieces on why Americans suddenly feel great about the economy are written by the people responsible for why people were not feeling great about the economy.
Americans aren’t as interested in Gaza by June.
Americans are still interested in Taylor Swift. Rumours of a fall engagement swirl.
A women dies because she’s denied life saving abortion care. Unfortunately she’s black or not a blonde white lady and the media doesn’t really care. It doesn’t rock the news cycle the way women’s rights activists hoped.

But

Women notice, not only that a women died an easily preventable death, but they notice how little the media or our established politicians seem to care. And that resentment simmers for years to come. They vote in fall 2024, and every other election until it finally dawns on whoever needs to understand it, that women demand equal protection under the constitution.

I love this so much!

I’ll add my fantasy that Taylor Swift, all out of Fs, gets more involved in politics and helps juice the female vote enough to send a clear signal that we’re sick of the GOP crap. Of course, they won’t notice, will keep doubling down, even when they lose.

The patriarchy, especially white ChristoFacists, will die on this hill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Biden will win.

My dear misguided leftist friend, I have grave predictions for 2024 if your kind has their way. I foresee the United States turning into a socialist wasteland, overrun by illegal immigrants and politically correct snowflakes. Our great Christian values will be thrown aside for the religion of climate change alarmism. Small government and free markets will be crushed under the boot of big government taxation and regulation. In short, if you liberals get your way, America as we know it will be unrecognizable! But have no fear, true patriots will rise up and reclaim our great nation from the clutches of socialism. The silent majority will speak, my naive liberal friend! *chuckles confidently while waving tiny American flag*

Let’s hope!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of you will be disappointed. Turnip will win. Rs will control both houses by small majorities.
Turnip will probably close off Texas border pronto and spend most of his administration rounding up the migrants and expelling them. FBI may be disbanded and reconfigured and heads will roll at DOJ and all the J6 protesters will be pardoned. He will cut off all funding for Ukraine overnight.

And life will go on. Nothing fascist will happen, no terrorism will happen, no civil unrests will happen.

What’s his plan to “close off the border”? A wall would take too long.

A wall does nothing to stop asylum seekers or smuggling drugs, which both happen in easily accessed areas.

There are very few people "sneaking" over the border.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do people think Harris will take over at Harvard? Did Harvard say something? So many people have predicted that. I think that is bananas. Gay is an academic lightweight and apparently a serial plagiarist to boot. But before the plagiarism, her selection drew some side-eye because she is such an academic lightweight as compared to prior presidents. Now they are having to defend the indefensible about her record primarily because she is a black woman and that is what they really wanted… a black woman. So they got they plus a lightweight plus plagiarism. I think, if Gay gets the boot or resigns, they will pick a very strong academic. Harris is not that.

I am the PP who had the list above that included that.

I have been trying to think of a landing spot for Harris that would be "big" enough to forgo trying for the US presidency in the event Trump was not the GOP candidate and Biden withdrew. President of Harvard (or Cal system etc) or Ambassador to London or Tokyo are the only things I could think of.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do people think Harris will take over at Harvard? Did Harvard say something? So many people have predicted that. I think that is bananas. Gay is an academic lightweight and apparently a serial plagiarist to boot. But before the plagiarism, her selection drew some side-eye because she is such an academic lightweight as compared to prior presidents. Now they are having to defend the indefensible about her record primarily because she is a black woman and that is what they really wanted… a black woman. So they got they plus a lightweight plus plagiarism. I think, if Gay gets the boot or resigns, they will pick a very strong academic. Harris is not that.

Bigots think black women are interchangeable, which is insulting. Also, some white people don't want a black woman as POTUS, so there's that too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will not have a conviction on his record.

He’ll be reelected, again while losing the popular vote.

I also don't think Trump ends up convicted of anything, much less in jail.

I'm not sure I agree that he wins the election, but if he does it will be as you say - winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote. A third party candidate could also be a spoiler/wild card.

But Trump's a wild card too. With Biden you know what you are getting, like it or not. To date, Trump has failed in alienating his base, but you honestly never know what could come out of his mouth. Abortion is a good example. Trump instinctively knows abortion is a losing issue for the R's. He's said as much, but I'm not sure he really understands how many conservatives are true believers on this issue and how many of them won't show up for him at the ballot box if he tries to moderate on this issue. And he has to get people to show up. That's something else that I don't think polling picks up. It's one thing to tell someone on the phone that you'll vote for Trump. That's easy. But if you're not passionate, or you’re tired of him, or you're disgusted with the system come Election Day, do you even show up? I kind of feel like everyone but the hardcore Trumpers have Trump fatigue. I don't think Trump gets the voters that just wanted to shake up the system this time around.

This is a very good point. It would be as if Barack Obama made it known in 2008 that he was totally cool with the war in Iraq and promised to continue it indefinitely if elected president. His supporters would have been completely demoralized. And I don’t think Trump can completely duck the issue for the entire campaign either. Eventually he’ll have to say whether he would sign a national abortion bill into law. It wouldn’t matter whether he said yes or no. Either answer would be devastating for him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2024 will be a sh*tshow.

Trump and Biden will be the nominees. The likelihood of one or both of these rapidly declining geriatrics dying on the campaign trail is very high. Presidential campaigns are very intense, very stressful, and 80 year olds have no business participating in them. Obese and high strung Trump is one Big Mac away from a heart attack. And shuffling Joe is one fall away from a broken hip and terminal decline. Not to mention dementia, a stroke, a brain aneurysm and all the other things that get you when you are older than rocks.

No one wants Kamala Harris to be president, and Trump will undoubtedly choose some hack sycophant for his VP. He's not making the Pence mistake again. He needs a cult member for backup. So it'll be someone like Kari Lake.

My brain hurts imagining all of this.

Meanwhile, anti-vax conspiracy nut RFK Jr is presently polling at 22 percent nationally. That number is only going to go up. In comparison to Trump and Biden, he will seem youthful. He's 69. And he will seem comparably sane, because we will have a year of Trump and Biden having brain melts and saying stupid sh*t.

But it's unclear who he's taking votes away from. It's not like Nader in 2000. Kennedy gets a lot of Republican votes. And he gets a lot of disaffected Democrats. It is absolutely impossible to predict how this plays out in swing states, where margins are less than 4 percent.

Who knows.

Meanwhile, it's a terrible map for Democrats in the Senate this year. Republicans will take it back. Probably 51-49. McConnell will be gently pushed aside. Thune will be the next Senate majority leader. Democrats will take back the House, and pretty convincingly. Would guess a 15 seat majority if not more. Jeffries becomes Speaker.

And then four years of mayhem. Because our presidential system is utterly broken. If it's Trump, we are going right back to riots and burning cities. If it's Biden, would expect right wing terror and a completely radicalized progressive youth.

Absolutely no one in America wants to see a redux of Biden-Trump. And yet here we are. There will be consequences. Two vain, narcissistic old men have hijacked American politics. If either is elected, I'd expect we get to a 1859 moment. Dancing with the devil either way.

The map is hard for Dems but not impossible. NC, TX, OH, heck even AR just saw record filings for Democrats in state gov. Just having a contested state race increases turnout for National races by 1 - 1.5%.

I choose to look at real data, not polls or anecdotal evidence. Democrats have been crushing elections since 2018 (except VA in 2021). The party is strong, the grassroots are kicking arse, and consumer confidence is aligning with reality. And what does GOP have? Abortion bans, incompetence, and a leader who poops in diapers.

I'd rather be us than them.

This is a good point and one I’ve been thinking about lately. The only big election the Democrats lost where they were competitive was the VA governor and legislative races in 2021. Which was a weird one because Youngkin basically won by moving a few voters around the edges due to VA Democrats holding onto the Covid stuff too long. That’s all in the past now, VA democrats and democrats across the country realized the Covid closure/restriction stuff was a losing issue and they moved on from it quickly.

There was no “red wave” in 2022. The media was foaming at the mouth for one but it did not materialize. Voters are mad about abortion access, to the point where you have pretty red states voting to make abortion rights enshrined in their state constitutions. Abortion is a losing issue for R’s at this point, and there’s the additional complication that there are lots of R voters who are absolute true believers in banning abortion. That’s a large part of the R base. Trump can thread that needle but nobody else in the party can. Either they double down on banning abortion and come across as out of touch religious nutcases, or they try to go more moderate and mealy mouthed about it and the base won’t vote for them in a primary.

[Anonymous]

Casey DeSantis is going to make it even more obvious that she’s running for governor of Florida.