What are your political predictions for 2024?

[Anonymous]

So far my prediction is that overwhelming majority of these big predictions the rest of you have made won't pan out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

Nebraska and Maine are going to trump/Biden.

Be serious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here are my top 10, with a couple happening in early 2025:
1. Trump is the Republican nominee
2. There are no presidential debates
3. Once again a divided Congress with a Republican controlled Senate and a Democratic house by the slimiest of margins.
4. No one has enough electoral votes for the Presidency in November.
5. Pundits endlessly debate what happens next and Americans are shocked at how the Constitutional process works with no electoral college winner
6. President Trump sworn in January 2025.
7. Crime gets so bad that the Federal Government assumes control of DC
8. Harvard Corporation under mounting pressure fires embattled President Gay.
9. Harvard Corporation gives Harvard President’s job to Kamala Harris in January 2025.
10. Washington’s football team has a new moniker; need the merchandise income to pay for new coaching staff led by Bill Belichick.

Agree with Kamala be at Harvard.

I’m going to have to third that one, good prediction!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

Nebraska and Maine are going to trump/Biden.

Be serious.

Citizens of Maine are embarrassed by the attention brought to their state by kicking Trump off the primary ballot. 3rd party candidate is going to do very well in Maine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

Nebraska and Maine are going to trump/Biden.

Be serious.

Citizens of Maine are embarrassed by the attention brought to their state by kicking Trump off the primary ballot. 3rd party candidate is going to do very well in Maine.

What percentage of them?

Anyway, I don't follow your logic. How does their embarrassment translate into Trumpers abandoning Trump?

ME-1 is going to Biden. No doubt. ME-2 is MAGA country. Maine is not all that complex.

**
On election day, Biden carried Maine at-large by nine percentage points and the 1st congressional district by 23 percentage points, garnering three electoral votes. However, the rural 2nd district backed Trump by more than seven percentage points, giving him one electoral vote. This was the same result as 2016...
**

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

Nebraska and Maine are going to trump/Biden.

Be serious.

Citizens of Maine are embarrassed by the attention brought to their state by kicking Trump off the primary ballot. 3rd party candidate is going to do very well in Maine.

If very well means not getting any electoral college votes from Maine then sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

That hasn’t happened since 1948. Which 3rd party candidate could win at least one state?

Don’t have to win a state. Some have proportional allotments.

Nebraska and Maine are going to trump/Biden.

Be serious.

Right. I doubt RFK Jr. is unusually popular in parts of Maine or Nebraska. Or any state really. His share of the popular vote nationally will be roughly equivalent to his share of the vote in each state.

Strom Thurmond was able to win a few electoral votes in 1948 because he won much of the old confederacy running as a “Dixiecrat”.

[Anonymous]

Biden wins re-election by similar EC numbers to 2020, Trump gets the nomination but his legal troubles don’t go away, the debates are two old men yelling at each other incoherently, and so it goes for another 4 years.

[Anonymous]

There aren’t going to be any debates - that is the only thing that is certain

[Anonymous]

SCOTUS shuts down any attempts to ban Trump from the ballot.

Donald Trump wins the presidency and by a bigger margin than expected, although not a landslide. Carrying almost all the swing states. Nikki Haley will be his VP and shore up the lukewarm votes.

Rs take control of Senate and increase majority in house.

(A Trump victory means full R control of both houses, it cannot happen without Rs winning both houses as the turnout for Trump will deliver seats to the Rs, just as it did in 2020).

There will be no debates. Trump will push for it but Biden will declare Trump an illegitimate candidate and refuse to debate him.

All of 2024 leading up till September will be filled with attempts to block Trump from the ballot and throw more legal challenges at him, but each attempt only solidifies his support. By September the Ds will give up and September - November 7 will be a very odd period of extensive Trump campaigning everywhere and virtually nothing happening on the Biden side.

One caveat: Biden dies. But a great deal depends on the timing. The closer it is to the election, the more likely it has to be a brokered nomination. Which is bad for turnout.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There aren’t going to be any debates - that is the only thing that is certain

+1
Biden won’t debate Trump.

[Anonymous]

Biden is not afraid to debate Trump. The Rs declared a couple years ago that they are no longer participating in the debate commission. They pretty much signaled no interest in national debates then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Biden is not afraid to debate Trump. The Rs declared a couple years ago that they are no longer participating in the debate commission. They pretty much signaled no interest in national debates then.

+1 Trump will refuse to debate Biden. Not the other way around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So far my prediction is that overwhelming majority of these big predictions the rest of you have made won't pan out.

This! And we don’t need debates. We know where both candidates stand:
Biden got us through COVID successfully and economy is up, inflation down.

Trump wants to stay out of prison, be a king and will yank our economy (and let Putin take Ukraine).

My money’s on Biden.