What are your political predictions for 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump wins and stops all asylum seeking. Also ends war in Ukraine. Also chaos ensues in all government programs - people can’t get their immigration status changed, no money for food stamps, etc etc

Oh yes and Bibi gets an ok to bomb Gaza into oblivion and (re)claim the territory

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The immigration issue is going to torpedo the Democrats.

Not nearly as much as the abortion issue will torpedo the Republicans. The Democrats are currently riding a wave of being the lesser of two evils and that's not likely to subside by the 2024 elections.

So far, the November 2022 and November 2023 election cycles have shown that the abortion issue has been a major issue for voters. For a mid-term and an off-year election, any state that has had abortion rights at the ballot box has seen a huge increase in voters under 35 (the largest segment that normally has low voter turnout) and suburban women, which has traditionally been the make or break demographic. In both demographics, the high turnout rate has been voting overwhelming Democratic to enshrine reproductive rights.

Kansas had record turnouts in 2022 and the deep red state voted for a Constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Same in Ohio 2023. In Kentucky, another deep red state, Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor running on a ticket to protect women's reproductive rights. In Virginia, prior to the election, Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate. With abortion rights as a major platform issue, November 2023, saw the Democrats win both chambers of the Virginia legislature.

With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion rights has become the dominant election decider. And Biden and the Democrats will be riding this to a third straight Democratic winning election.

Just imagine what we could do from an electoral standpoint if we had a viable presidential candidate to run against Trump. Biden still has a chance to beat Trump and I hope he does but man it sure would be fun to watch a legitimate candidate lock in the victory with a 1984 Reagan like landslide crushing of Trump and MAGA! A cozy Rehoboth retirement village is calling your name Joe! lol

I'm the PP you are responding to. I think Biden is correct, though. If Biden doesn't run, Trump holds the upper hand as a former President. Biden can "trump" Trump (pun intended) as the incumbent. So he can cancel out the incumbency between them. And I believe that there are still more anybody-but-Trump voters than anybody-but-Biden voters. So, Biden can cancel out Trump. However, with Trump in the race without Biden, he does hold an edge as he would have the vote of people who vote for incumbency or "experience". There are still many less read voters who will vote for the higher name recognition and they will recognize Trump as a former President, so they will vote for him because he has the experience that a new candidate will not have. There are many people who will vote, but do not pay much attention to issues.

Biden has also implied that he is only running to prevent Trump from regaining the presidency. If Trump were to withdraw or get knocked out of the race, I would guess that Biden would also withdraw from the race.

Are you suggesting that the elderly, bumbling Biden would be more appealing to swing voters in swing states than Whitmer? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in 6 weeks. Biden is a big time liability to the party at this point.

No. I am saying that Biden is the only one who can definitely beat Trump. He negates the former President incumbent benefit.

I think that Whitmer is an amazing candidate, but I'm not certain that she can beat the MAGA GOP steamroller. Without Biden in the race, essentially Trump would immediately get a bump from those people who like incumbents or those that are already experienced with the office that they are running for. Biden is the only opponent that can negate that bonus for Trump.

+1. And I know the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, blah, blah, blah, but I don't think you can get away from the fact that some people hated her in part because she's a woman. I think there are people that don't even consciously understand that they don't like her because she's a woman because bias against women runs that deep. The acceptance of Trump's objectively offensive behavior against and around women is also proof of that.

Two old men running against each other is a level playing field.

Saying Hillary didn’t get elected because she’s a woman is about like saying people didn't like Hitler because he was a Taurus.

Reps have eagerly voted for women. Palin was quite popular among the fan base for a while. And of course there's plenty of R governors and even senators these days.

HRC was hated because she was seen as shrill and fake and people resented how the Democrats turned 2016 into an anointment by rigging the primaries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The immigration issue is going to torpedo the Democrats.

Not nearly as much as the abortion issue will torpedo the Republicans. The Democrats are currently riding a wave of being the lesser of two evils and that's not likely to subside by the 2024 elections.

So far, the November 2022 and November 2023 election cycles have shown that the abortion issue has been a major issue for voters. For a mid-term and an off-year election, any state that has had abortion rights at the ballot box has seen a huge increase in voters under 35 (the largest segment that normally has low voter turnout) and suburban women, which has traditionally been the make or break demographic. In both demographics, the high turnout rate has been voting overwhelming Democratic to enshrine reproductive rights.

Kansas had record turnouts in 2022 and the deep red state voted for a Constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Same in Ohio 2023. In Kentucky, another deep red state, Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor running on a ticket to protect women's reproductive rights. In Virginia, prior to the election, Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate. With abortion rights as a major platform issue, November 2023, saw the Democrats win both chambers of the Virginia legislature.

With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion rights has become the dominant election decider. And Biden and the Democrats will be riding this to a third straight Democratic winning election.

Just imagine what we could do from an electoral standpoint if we had a viable presidential candidate to run against Trump. Biden still has a chance to beat Trump and I hope he does but man it sure would be fun to watch a legitimate candidate lock in the victory with a 1984 Reagan like landslide crushing of Trump and MAGA! A cozy Rehoboth retirement village is calling your name Joe! lol

I'm the PP you are responding to. I think Biden is correct, though. If Biden doesn't run, Trump holds the upper hand as a former President. Biden can "trump" Trump (pun intended) as the incumbent. So he can cancel out the incumbency between them. And I believe that there are still more anybody-but-Trump voters than anybody-but-Biden voters. So, Biden can cancel out Trump. However, with Trump in the race without Biden, he does hold an edge as he would have the vote of people who vote for incumbency or "experience". There are still many less read voters who will vote for the higher name recognition and they will recognize Trump as a former President, so they will vote for him because he has the experience that a new candidate will not have. There are many people who will vote, but do not pay much attention to issues.

Biden has also implied that he is only running to prevent Trump from regaining the presidency. If Trump were to withdraw or get knocked out of the race, I would guess that Biden would also withdraw from the race.

Are you suggesting that the elderly, bumbling Biden would be more appealing to swing voters in swing states than Whitmer? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in 6 weeks. Biden is a big time liability to the party at this point.

No. I am saying that Biden is the only one who can definitely beat Trump. He negates the former President incumbent benefit.

I think that Whitmer is an amazing candidate, but I'm not certain that she can beat the MAGA GOP steamroller. Without Biden in the race, essentially Trump would immediately get a bump from those people who like incumbents or those that are already experienced with the office that they are running for. Biden is the only opponent that can negate that bonus for Trump.

+1. And I know the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, blah, blah, blah, but I don't think you can get away from the fact that some people hated her in part because she's a woman. I think there are people that don't even consciously understand that they don't like her because she's a woman because bias against women runs that deep. The acceptance of Trump's objectively offensive behavior against and around women is also proof of that.

Two old men running against each other is a level playing field.

Saying Hillary didn’t get elected because she’s a woman is about like saying people didn't like Hitler because he was a Taurus.

Reps have eagerly voted for women. Palin was quite popular among the fan base for a while. And of course there's plenty of R governors and even senators these days.

HRC was hated because she was seen as shrill and fake and people resented how the Democrats turned 2016 into an anointment by rigging the primaries.

Dp - she was “shrill”
Was she uppity too?

[Anonymous]

Not going to happen but wouldn’t it be interesting if both B&T are unable to get their party’s nomination and we have Whitmer v Haley?

[Anonymous]

That would be awesome PP

I wouldn't mind it. They are at least more interesting than Humpty Dumpty Biden and Trump.

I'm a social Dem but a fiscal conservative - I'm pro choice but think we are spending way too much money taking care of other countries and need to focus on domestic issues. I would be interested in the campaigning from the 2 ladies. Not a fan of Harris however.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The immigration issue is going to torpedo the Democrats.

Not nearly as much as the abortion issue will torpedo the Republicans. The Democrats are currently riding a wave of being the lesser of two evils and that's not likely to subside by the 2024 elections.

So far, the November 2022 and November 2023 election cycles have shown that the abortion issue has been a major issue for voters. For a mid-term and an off-year election, any state that has had abortion rights at the ballot box has seen a huge increase in voters under 35 (the largest segment that normally has low voter turnout) and suburban women, which has traditionally been the make or break demographic. In both demographics, the high turnout rate has been voting overwhelming Democratic to enshrine reproductive rights.

Kansas had record turnouts in 2022 and the deep red state voted for a Constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Same in Ohio 2023. In Kentucky, another deep red state, Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor running on a ticket to protect women's reproductive rights. In Virginia, prior to the election, Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate. With abortion rights as a major platform issue, November 2023, saw the Democrats win both chambers of the Virginia legislature.

With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion rights has become the dominant election decider. And Biden and the Democrats will be riding this to a third straight Democratic winning election.

Just imagine what we could do from an electoral standpoint if we had a viable presidential candidate to run against Trump. Biden still has a chance to beat Trump and I hope he does but man it sure would be fun to watch a legitimate candidate lock in the victory with a 1984 Reagan like landslide crushing of Trump and MAGA! A cozy Rehoboth retirement village is calling your name Joe! lol

I'm the PP you are responding to. I think Biden is correct, though. If Biden doesn't run, Trump holds the upper hand as a former President. Biden can "trump" Trump (pun intended) as the incumbent. So he can cancel out the incumbency between them. And I believe that there are still more anybody-but-Trump voters than anybody-but-Biden voters. So, Biden can cancel out Trump. However, with Trump in the race without Biden, he does hold an edge as he would have the vote of people who vote for incumbency or "experience". There are still many less read voters who will vote for the higher name recognition and they will recognize Trump as a former President, so they will vote for him because he has the experience that a new candidate will not have. There are many people who will vote, but do not pay much attention to issues.

Biden has also implied that he is only running to prevent Trump from regaining the presidency. If Trump were to withdraw or get knocked out of the race, I would guess that Biden would also withdraw from the race.

Are you suggesting that the elderly, bumbling Biden would be more appealing to swing voters in swing states than Whitmer? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in 6 weeks. Biden is a big time liability to the party at this point.

No. I am saying that Biden is the only one who can definitely beat Trump. He negates the former President incumbent benefit.

I think that Whitmer is an amazing candidate, but I'm not certain that she can beat the MAGA GOP steamroller. Without Biden in the race, essentially Trump would immediately get a bump from those people who like incumbents or those that are already experienced with the office that they are running for. Biden is the only opponent that can negate that bonus for Trump.

+1. And I know the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, blah, blah, blah, but I don't think you can get away from the fact that some people hated her in part because she's a woman. I think there are people that don't even consciously understand that they don't like her because she's a woman because bias against women runs that deep. The acceptance of Trump's objectively offensive behavior against and around women is also proof of that.

Two old men running against each other is a level playing field.

Saying Hillary didn’t get elected because she’s a woman is about like saying people didn't like Hitler because he was a Taurus.

I don't know Hitler's astrological sign But I do know white men who said they would never vote for a woman for President

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The immigration issue is going to torpedo the Democrats.

Not nearly as much as the abortion issue will torpedo the Republicans. The Democrats are currently riding a wave of being the lesser of two evils and that's not likely to subside by the 2024 elections.

So far, the November 2022 and November 2023 election cycles have shown that the abortion issue has been a major issue for voters. For a mid-term and an off-year election, any state that has had abortion rights at the ballot box has seen a huge increase in voters under 35 (the largest segment that normally has low voter turnout) and suburban women, which has traditionally been the make or break demographic. In both demographics, the high turnout rate has been voting overwhelming Democratic to enshrine reproductive rights.

Kansas had record turnouts in 2022 and the deep red state voted for a Constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Same in Ohio 2023. In Kentucky, another deep red state, Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor running on a ticket to protect women's reproductive rights. In Virginia, prior to the election, Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate. With abortion rights as a major platform issue, November 2023, saw the Democrats win both chambers of the Virginia legislature.

With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion rights has become the dominant election decider. And Biden and the Democrats will be riding this to a third straight Democratic winning election.

Just imagine what we could do from an electoral standpoint if we had a viable presidential candidate to run against Trump. Biden still has a chance to beat Trump and I hope he does but man it sure would be fun to watch a legitimate candidate lock in the victory with a 1984 Reagan like landslide crushing of Trump and MAGA! A cozy Rehoboth retirement village is calling your name Joe! lol

I'm the PP you are responding to. I think Biden is correct, though. If Biden doesn't run, Trump holds the upper hand as a former President. Biden can "trump" Trump (pun intended) as the incumbent. So he can cancel out the incumbency between them. And I believe that there are still more anybody-but-Trump voters than anybody-but-Biden voters. So, Biden can cancel out Trump. However, with Trump in the race without Biden, he does hold an edge as he would have the vote of people who vote for incumbency or "experience". There are still many less read voters who will vote for the higher name recognition and they will recognize Trump as a former President, so they will vote for him because he has the experience that a new candidate will not have. There are many people who will vote, but do not pay much attention to issues.

Biden has also implied that he is only running to prevent Trump from regaining the presidency. If Trump were to withdraw or get knocked out of the race, I would guess that Biden would also withdraw from the race.

Are you suggesting that the elderly, bumbling Biden would be more appealing to swing voters in swing states than Whitmer? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in 6 weeks. Biden is a big time liability to the party at this point.

No. I am saying that Biden is the only one who can definitely beat Trump. He negates the former President incumbent benefit.

I think that Whitmer is an amazing candidate, but I'm not certain that she can beat the MAGA GOP steamroller. Without Biden in the race, essentially Trump would immediately get a bump from those people who like incumbents or those that are already experienced with the office that they are running for. Biden is the only opponent that can negate that bonus for Trump.

Biden has a 50/50 chance of beating Trump. Whitmer would have a 97% chance of beating Trump. To say otherwise is to say the voting American public is as dumb as a brick.

NP here - PP who thinks only Biden can beat Trump - you my friend are dumb as a brick if you think this. Anyone younger has a better chance of winning v Tump (or Biden). Even Kennedy has a shot. Haley for sure. These 2 old white dudes are a trainwreck both. Different reasons but same result.

I think this election is up for grabs. I don't think Trump will pull it out as the powers that be are not enchanted by him if still the masses are. I don't think Biden will win IF any viable GOP candidate pitches effectively ie mainstream. Biden should really bow out. Any viable democrat other than Biden/Harris has a great shot v GOP.

Kamala is younger. Do you think she can beat Trump?

Kamala would never be Trump. She is the one Dem candidate not able to beat Trump! Anyone else has a chance even Joe but Kamala isn't someone in that league. They put her out there and and the GOP gets it for sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The immigration issue is going to torpedo the Democrats.

Not nearly as much as the abortion issue will torpedo the Republicans. The Democrats are currently riding a wave of being the lesser of two evils and that's not likely to subside by the 2024 elections.

So far, the November 2022 and November 2023 election cycles have shown that the abortion issue has been a major issue for voters. For a mid-term and an off-year election, any state that has had abortion rights at the ballot box has seen a huge increase in voters under 35 (the largest segment that normally has low voter turnout) and suburban women, which has traditionally been the make or break demographic. In both demographics, the high turnout rate has been voting overwhelming Democratic to enshrine reproductive rights.

Kansas had record turnouts in 2022 and the deep red state voted for a Constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Same in Ohio 2023. In Kentucky, another deep red state, Democrat Andy Beshear won reelection as governor running on a ticket to protect women's reproductive rights. In Virginia, prior to the election, Republican controlled House and a Democratic controlled Senate. With abortion rights as a major platform issue, November 2023, saw the Democrats win both chambers of the Virginia legislature.

With the overturning of Roe v Wade, abortion rights has become the dominant election decider. And Biden and the Democrats will be riding this to a third straight Democratic winning election.

Just imagine what we could do from an electoral standpoint if we had a viable presidential candidate to run against Trump. Biden still has a chance to beat Trump and I hope he does but man it sure would be fun to watch a legitimate candidate lock in the victory with a 1984 Reagan like landslide crushing of Trump and MAGA! A cozy Rehoboth retirement village is calling your name Joe! lol

I'm the PP you are responding to. I think Biden is correct, though. If Biden doesn't run, Trump holds the upper hand as a former President. Biden can "trump" Trump (pun intended) as the incumbent. So he can cancel out the incumbency between them. And I believe that there are still more anybody-but-Trump voters than anybody-but-Biden voters. So, Biden can cancel out Trump. However, with Trump in the race without Biden, he does hold an edge as he would have the vote of people who vote for incumbency or "experience". There are still many less read voters who will vote for the higher name recognition and they will recognize Trump as a former President, so they will vote for him because he has the experience that a new candidate will not have. There are many people who will vote, but do not pay much attention to issues.

Biden has also implied that he is only running to prevent Trump from regaining the presidency. If Trump were to withdraw or get knocked out of the race, I would guess that Biden would also withdraw from the race.

Are you suggesting that the elderly, bumbling Biden would be more appealing to swing voters in swing states than Whitmer? That's the most ridiculous thing I've heard in 6 weeks. Biden is a big time liability to the party at this point.

No. I am saying that Biden is the only one who can definitely beat Trump. He negates the former President incumbent benefit.

I think that Whitmer is an amazing candidate, but I'm not certain that she can beat the MAGA GOP steamroller. Without Biden in the race, essentially Trump would immediately get a bump from those people who like incumbents or those that are already experienced with the office that they are running for. Biden is the only opponent that can negate that bonus for Trump.

+1. And I know the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, blah, blah, blah, but I don't think you can get away from the fact that some people hated her in part because she's a woman. I think there are people that don't even consciously understand that they don't like her because she's a woman because bias against women runs that deep. The acceptance of Trump's objectively offensive behavior against and around women is also proof of that.

Two old men running against each other is a level playing field.

Saying Hillary didn’t get elected because she’s a woman is about like saying people didn't like Hitler because he was a Taurus.

I don't know Hitler's astrological sign But I do know white men who said they would never vote for a woman for President

NP here - In 2024, it is much less about gender. Although, I believe there is a group of folks that are "the powers that be" and they really get the last say even in our democracy of who gets to be POTUS. I think when Trump one, they were ready to go anti establishment with him - it was a perfect storm - and Hillary is so polarizing anyway. I think now however, he will lose because even they don't want him to rep USA in the world. Who they want however is a mystery. I'm not sure that Joe is a lock there. I don't think it's Kamala. I think depending on the GOP candidates, it's very likely it could be a new face. I think the Dems would have a real shot if a new face came up v. GOP. For Joe to continue in the race, it's a crapshoot - 50/50 - not sure anyone wants either Trump or him!

[Anonymous]

I would take Christie over Haley. In my opinion she is Trump in lipstick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump wins and stops all asylum seeking. Also ends war in Ukraine. Also chaos ensues in all government programs - people can’t get their immigration status changed, no money for food stamps, etc etc

Oh yes and Bibi gets an ok to bomb Gaza into oblivion and (re)claim the territory

Pretty sure Gaza will have been bombed into oblivion anyway by next January. And no one wants Gaza regardless.

If Trump wins, he temporarily freezes the front lines in Ukraine when he denies Ukrainians ammunition to fight back against the invaders. Russia is weak too. They can't break through. Not exactly a long term peace plan. Russians will rearm. Ukrainians will continue to build their own arms industries. And it keeps going.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Regardless of who wins in November, there’s going to a level of politicial violence never before seen in this country.

People see it coming:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/movies/2024/01/24/war-game-jan-6/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

More than a few. Latest national Quinnipiac poll has Biden 38, Trump 36, Kennedy 22.

If they ever debate, it'll be Kennedy that sounds like the reasonable one. Lots of opportunities for constitutional chaos

You cannot be serious- Kennedy? Reasonable? No

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why will 4 occur?

Third party candidate will capture a few electoral votes.

More than a few. Latest national Quinnipiac poll has Biden 38, Trump 36, Kennedy 22.

If they ever debate, it'll be Kennedy that sounds like the reasonable one. Lots of opportunities for constitutional chaos

You cannot be serious- Kennedy? Reasonable? No

Reuters/Ipsos GE: Trump 43, Biden 38 / multi way: Trump 39, Biden 34, Kennedy 8, Phillips 2. Good news is that there's still plenty of undecideds.

The Messenger/Harris: Trump 53, Biden 47 / multi way: Trump 45, Biden 36, Kennedy 14, Stein 3, West 2

The Economist: Trump 44, Biden 43 (seems to be the best Biden poll recently)

Morning Consult: Trump 45, Biden 40

All from this past week. The pattern clear. While Trump is outperforming 2020 polls and Biden underperforming 2020 polls, there are also enough undecideds to swing the vote. The extra candidates seem to hurt both Trump and Biden equally,

[Anonymous]

Biden will win, Dems will take the House, G will take the Senate. There will be violence coming from MAGA. They are itching to randomly kill people. Look at the rednecks on TickTock threatening to go Texas. They are the Truckers all over again.

[Anonymous]

Biden win, MAGAs lose their minds.