Official November Shutdown Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Would you say a shutdown in November is 50 50?

Who knows. I thought for sure the government would shut down last weekend and it didn’t. So anything can happen

I'd say it's greater than 50/50 at this point. They don't even have a Speaker.

Last week people were saying 90% chance, and it didn’t happen.

[Anonymous]

WaPo is saying the obvious: with McCarthy ousted, the likelihood of a shut down in November has increased:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/05/house-speaker-government-shutdown/

“It becomes substantially harder to do a government spending deal, because the message has been sent that Republicans should not rely on Democrats to pass any bills,” said Brian Riedl, a former aide to Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) who is now a policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank. “Things can always get worse. The no-compromise fringe has been strongly empowered and essentially has a veto over House Republican policy — which can’t be squared with what Democrats and the White House want.”

[Anonymous]

Honestly after prepping all last week, burning the midnight oil to get things accomplished- I'm burnt out. Shutdowns are stressful to prep a dozen things on top of my own actual job duties. It's ridiculous. It's like some weird song and dance we have to do for Congress yearly. Pass a budget already! They could have passed it anytime during the summer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WaPo is saying the obvious: with McCarthy ousted, the likelihood of a shut down in November has increased:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/05/house-speaker-government-shutdown/

“It becomes substantially harder to do a government spending deal, because the message has been sent that Republicans should not rely on Democrats to pass any bills,” said Brian Riedl, a former aide to Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) who is now a policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank. “Things can always get worse. The no-compromise fringe has been strongly empowered and essentially has a veto over House Republican policy — which can’t be squared with what Democrats and the White House want.”

Good way of putting it. The next speaker can't hold a vote on a spending bill that needs Dem support to pass. But of course, it's going to be nearly impossible for the House to pass a bill that gets only GOP support, since the party is full of crazies and can only afford five or so no votes.

Seems like one way out is for the next speaker to just hold a vote anyway on a bill that needs Dem support, like McCarthy did, and risk his job. Maybe that's what will happen after a shutdown...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Would you say a shutdown in November is 50 50?

Who knows. I thought for sure the government would shut down last weekend and it didn’t. So anything can happen

I'd say it's greater than 50/50 at this point. They don't even have a Speaker.

Last week people were saying 90% chance, and it didn’t happen.

Because no one can predict this in advance - who knows what will happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I already know I am an exempt employee and would have to work during a shutdown. The issue is, I already have approved leave the week of Thanksgiving. If the government shut down, does that mean my leave is canceled? I’ve already got flights and hotel.

Unless your leadership is really unreasonable, this is usually handled by furloughing you for the time you'll be out. If needed, someone else can be designated excepted. So your leave is canceled om the books, yes, but your vacation can in theory still happen.
But you will have to talk to your agency about it.

A shutdown only potential impacts the ability of your agency to pay you, either for working or while on leave. It shouldn't affect your ability to either use your leave (if you're exempt) or to be furloughed (if you're not excepted). The only possible issue could be if you are excepted and can be required to work without pay.

An agency can run into issues if it inappropriately applies different classifications to positions that do the same work. So not sure if they could actually move another employee into an excepted position while an otherwise excepted employee is allowed to not work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I already know I am an exempt employee and would have to work during a shutdown. The issue is, I already have approved leave the week of Thanksgiving. If the government shut down, does that mean my leave is canceled? I’ve already got flights and hotel.

Unless your leadership is really unreasonable, this is usually handled by furloughing you for the time you'll be out. If needed, someone else can be designated excepted. So your leave is canceled om the books, yes, but your vacation can in theory still happen.
But you will have to talk to your agency about it.

A shutdown only potential impacts the ability of your agency to pay you, either for working or while on leave. It shouldn't affect your ability to either use your leave (if you're exempt) or to be furloughed (if you're not excepted). The only possible issue could be if you are excepted and can be required to work without pay.

An agency can run into issues if it inappropriately applies different classifications to positions that do the same work. So not sure if they could actually move another employee into an excepted position while an otherwise excepted employee is allowed to not work.

My agency does this. We only need one supervisor on duty for emergencies during a shutdown so 8 of them are furloughed and HR rotates who works among the supervisors.

[Anonymous]

I was another person on the last thread who was sure it would happen. Where's that one person w/ connections who knew????

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I already know I am an exempt employee and would have to work during a shutdown. The issue is, I already have approved leave the week of Thanksgiving. If the government shut down, does that mean my leave is canceled? I’ve already got flights and hotel.

Unless your leadership is really unreasonable, this is usually handled by furloughing you for the time you'll be out. If needed, someone else can be designated excepted. So your leave is canceled om the books, yes, but your vacation can in theory still happen.
But you will have to talk to your agency about it.

A shutdown only potential impacts the ability of your agency to pay you, either for working or while on leave. It shouldn't affect your ability to either use your leave (if you're exempt) or to be furloughed (if you're not excepted). The only possible issue could be if you are excepted and can be required to work without pay.

An agency can run into issues if it inappropriately applies different classifications to positions that do the same work. So not sure if they could actually move another employee into an excepted position while an otherwise excepted employee is allowed to not work.

All leave is canceled during a shutdown. You are either furloughed or excepted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was another person on the last thread who was sure it would happen. Where's that one person w/ connections who knew????

No connections necessary - several of us on that other thread said it wouldn't happen.

[Anonymous]

🎱 no shutdown

[Anonymous]

I’m starting my Christmas shopping early, just in case…

[Anonymous]

Does anyone else think the war in Israel makes a shut down less likely? I think the GOP will care (a little) more about supporting Israel than Ukraine, so maybe there’ll be more urgency in passing a budget.

[Anonymous]

I think you're probably right. Unless can they pass something separately for Israel ASAP and not have that attached to gov shutdown drama?

[Anonymous]

We don’t even have a speaker. Are they going to pass ANYTHING by Nov 17?