Fed Government Shutdown 2025: non-political thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At a work meeting this morning- sounds like no one thinks the government will open until December. There is rumors that there will be some attempt to pay air traffic control. As a contractor- we run out of money at thanksgiving so this should be fun.

The betting market has the over/under at Nov 15 with less than 20% of betters thinking it will go into Dec, so your coworkers are pretty pessimistic.

The betting market I see is looking well beyond Nov. 15th with a target of December 2nd.

Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01) and Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545) have the over/under at Nov 16. Despite what the betters are betting Polymarket is predicting Dec 2. No idea how they come up with that number when even money is on Nov 16th.

[Anonymous]

I feel like the senate might pass the house CR the week of the 16th to try to open for a week and maybe get people paid.

But one has to wonder if Trump will actually sign it then...

[Anonymous]

question for the people that keep posting this shii...why would I give a F what a bunch of gamblers think when the govt would open? stop citing 'prediction markets' it's literal nonsense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:question for the people that keep posting this shii...why would I give a F what a bunch of gamblers think when the govt would open? stop citing 'prediction markets' it's literal nonsense.

Because the people betting are at least willing to back up their words with money as opposed to break room gossip and anonymous post on a message board.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do you think results from tomorrow's elections could precipitate negotiation?

Who knows. It appears the President has said they should keep voting on the same thing, get rid of the filibuster, and not give anything inch.

if so then it's over but that'd mean gop did give an inch tho, no?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At a work meeting this morning- sounds like no one thinks the government will open until December. There is rumors that there will be some attempt to pay air traffic control. As a contractor- we run out of money at thanksgiving so this should be fun.

The betting market has the over/under at Nov 15 with less than 20% of betters thinking it will go into Dec, so your coworkers are pretty pessimistic.

The betting market I see is looking well beyond Nov. 15th with a target of December 2nd.

Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01) and Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545) have the over/under at Nov 16. Despite what the betters are betting Polymarket is predicting Dec 2. No idea how they come up with that number when even money is on Nov 16th.

If you're going to keep talking about prediction markets ... a person who places a bet is a "bettor." Not a "better."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At a work meeting this morning- sounds like no one thinks the government will open until December. There is rumors that there will be some attempt to pay air traffic control. As a contractor- we run out of money at thanksgiving so this should be fun.

The betting market has the over/under at Nov 15 with less than 20% of betters thinking it will go into Dec, so your coworkers are pretty pessimistic.

The betting market I see is looking well beyond Nov. 15th with a target of December 2nd.

Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01) and Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545) have the over/under at Nov 16. Despite what the betters are betting Polymarket is predicting Dec 2. No idea how they come up with that number when even money is on Nov 16th.

If you're going to keep talking about prediction markets ... a person who places a bet is a "bettor." Not a "better."

If they have real money to throw around on inane bets, they well be my betters. - NP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:question for the people that keep posting this shii...why would I give a F what a bunch of gamblers think when the govt would open? stop citing 'prediction markets' it's literal nonsense.

Prediction markets have often shown to be reasonably accurate (on the whole, obviously not in every instance) and often better than polling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:question for the people that keep posting this shii...why would I give a F what a bunch of gamblers think when the govt would open? stop citing 'prediction markets' it's literal nonsense.

Prediction markets have often shown to be reasonably accurate (on the whole, obviously not in every instance) and often better than polling.

Polling is completely bonkers now. How do you reach people, huge swaths of people don’t answer unknown calls, email/web is insane and unverifiable, and door to door goes unanswered. You end up with a looney subset of cranks and do-gooders …

[Anonymous]

I’ve been hearing whispers from our higher ups in the office (HHS OpDiv) that we may be back on Nov 6. Anyone else hearing likewise?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been hearing whispers from our higher ups in the office (HHS OpDiv) that we may be back on Nov 6. Anyone else hearing likewise?

Hearing whispers at my agency of “after the recess” so who knows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been hearing whispers from our higher ups in the office (HHS OpDiv) that we may be back on Nov 6. Anyone else hearing likewise?

This sounds in line with what Politico is reporting:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/11/03/congress/john-thune-says-he-is-optimistic-about-ending-the-shutdown-this-week-00634119

[Anonymous]

"Nov 6" means after the election. If that's the date and one side concedes, there will be interesting consequences to discuss in the Politics forum.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am a democrat and emailed Van Hollen and Alsobrooks asking them to vote to reopen the government.

It is not their job to do that.

You failed 5th grade???? Republicans have the Majority in both Houses. Dems don't have to do a dam thing.

And BS you are a Democrat.

Different democrat here. And whether you like it or not, it’s Dem no votes that have blocked opening the government at this point.

There are multiple ways to “open the government”. One way is for the Republicans — the majority party in both the House and the Senate — to vote to open it. Heck, the House hasn’t even met as a group to discuss it in weeks. The Republicans would like their plan to withhold food benefits from people who need them to force the Democrats to stop pushing for affordable healthcare. Starve or suffer. The Republican Party of “family values” is spending our tax dollars on breaks for the already wealthy. That’s not what most Americans want or value.

I’m sure you’re trying, but it’s obvious that you’re lying about your party affiliation. Details matter.

No, my party affiliation is stated accurately. I’m just not a hyper partisan like you.

You think it’s “hyper partisan” to want people to have both adequate food AND healthcare? Gosh! Not too long ago, BOTH major parties and many smaller ones wanted that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve been hearing whispers from our higher ups in the office (HHS OpDiv) that we may be back on Nov 6. Anyone else hearing likewise?

This sounds in line with what Politico is reporting:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/11/03/congress/john-thune-says-he-is-optimistic-about-ending-the-shutdown-this-week-00634119

They are talking about extending the CR in that article... but that would mean that Johnson has to call the House back into session.