Reply to Fed Government Shutdown 2025: non-political thread

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]At a work meeting this morning- sounds like no one thinks the government will open until December. There is rumors that there will be some attempt to pay air traffic control. As a contractor- we run out of money at thanksgiving so this should be fun.[/quote]

The betting market has the over/under at Nov 15 with less than 20% of betters thinking it will go into Dec, so your coworkers are pretty pessimistic.[/quote]

The betting market I see is looking well beyond Nov. 15th with a target of December 2nd.[/quote]

Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01) and Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545) have the over/under at Nov 16. Despite what the betters are betting Polymarket is predicting Dec 2. No idea how they come up with that number when even money is on Nov 16th.[/quote]

If you're going to keep talking about prediction markets ... a person who places a bet is a "bettor." Not a "better."[/quote]

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