Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new deaths in Washington state. The Street’s not gonna like that.

Four more for a total of six, in Washington state.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-us-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-03-02/

Any information on the people who died? Were these victims also from the same LTC as the first two victims?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I never knew how dysfunctional Italy had become until now.

If you think things are better here you are naive.

Nah, Italy is one of those countries that is only considered developed because of tradition, not because of reality.

Nonsense. I have been inside an Italian hospital and it compared well with here.

[Anonymous]

There is now a total of 6 deaths in Washington state and 12 active infections.

King County WA (Seattle) is preparing for a lot more cases.

Executive Constantine immediately ordered the purchase of an area motel to be used to isolate patients in recovery as well as those in active treatment. The acquisition is expected to be finalized in a matter of days and available to Public Health by the end of the week. Location details will be made available when the transaction is complete.

In addition, King County will place modular units on public properties in locations throughout King County.

https://komonews.com/news/local/king-county-to-issue-emergency-declaration-over-coronavirus

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The ones that truly tick me off are the ones who are taking advantage of the situation - either trying to spin this politically or trying to get a free vacay out of it. No, it is not in the best interests of our country to completely shut down our economy over what, to most people, will be no more serous than a common cold. It also makes zero sense to make people too afraid to report their symptoms because they don't want their friends/families to be singled out for quarantines.

Minimizing the situation isn't helping anyone either. I don't know why you are assuming that people who think that self-quarantine is a good idea are looking for free vacations. In fact, many people on this site are wondering if they can get permission to telework even if they have kids at home...the opposite of not wanting to do their jobs!

Frankly, I think downplaying the risk is the biggest concern in the US right now. Advising people to take precautions like avoiding unnecessarily going to crowded places is sensible...because the economic impact of that is far lower than the alternative if there is an outbreak leading to much more extreme quarantine measures (like what Italy is currently experiencing). Advising employers to allow telework as much as possible would also be a good, relatively mild intervention. The likelihood is high, at this point, that a lot of people will contract the virus (I've seen 30-70% in the next year). Luckily, most people will be just fine, but a much larger fraction than from the seasonal flu will have severe symptoms. If we can keep the spread at a manageable rate, then our health systems will be able to treat those people. If we pretend like nothing's happening and the rest of the world is, apparently, just stupid and fear-mongering...well, then we can't help all of those people and the economic impact will be far worse than people cautiously deciding not to go to the movies and to Disney World for a few weeks.

Most major tech conferences for the next few months in teh Bay Area have been cancelled. Those conferences are planned over-a-year ahead of time. Companies are going to lose a lot of money by cancelling these conferences, but they've done the risk analysis and decided it was better than risking an outbreak at one of their conferences. If you don't trust foreign governments to understand economic risk, do you trust Facebook? Intel? Workday? (https://www.barrons.com/articles/coronavirus-is-forcing-companies-to-cancel-conferences-51583147701)

30 to 70%? That's quite a range. That should tell you something right there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the actual mortality rate potentially much lower than the 2-3% discussed in the media? The death rate being reported is based on the number of diagnosed cases, but presumably there are probably thousands of additional undiagnosed cases where people had no or mild enough symptoms that they never were officially diagnosed.

No, it's higher. You have to compare recovered vs deaths. Currently that's 6%. China tested WAY more than any other country is. I also read that asymptomatic people later did get it too.

You are 100% incorrect. My information comes from people in the trenches.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Three new deaths in Washington state. The Street’s not gonna like that.

Probably in the nursing home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the actual mortality rate potentially much lower than the 2-3% discussed in the media? The death rate being reported is based on the number of diagnosed cases, but presumably there are probably thousands of additional undiagnosed cases where people had no or mild enough symptoms that they never were officially diagnosed.

No, it's higher. You have to compare recovered vs deaths. Currently that's 6%. China tested WAY more than any other country is. I also read that asymptomatic people later did get it too.

Where are you getting the 6% number?? Everything I’m reading seems to give 1% max.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51674743

1% is correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why is the mortality rate so much higher in Wuhan?

Um, it's CHINA!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why is the mortality rate so much higher in Wuhan?

Um, it's CHINA!

Yeah but it’s lower in other parts of China.

[Anonymous]

New York doctor weighing in...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why is the mortality rate so much higher in Wuhan?

Um, it's CHINA!

Yeah but it’s lower in other parts of China.

Viruses tend to be hugely impactful at the original site, then lose some virility as they pass from person to person. Remember, there's such a thing as viral load and that impacts transmission, strength, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New York doctor weighing in...

Didn't show the full thread - click for more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The ones that truly tick me off are the ones who are taking advantage of the situation - either trying to spin this politically or trying to get a free vacay out of it. No, it is not in the best interests of our country to completely shut down our economy over what, to most people, will be no more serous than a common cold. It also makes zero sense to make people too afraid to report their symptoms because they don't want their friends/families to be singled out for quarantines.

Minimizing the situation isn't helping anyone either. I don't know why you are assuming that people who think that self-quarantine is a good idea are looking for free vacations. In fact, many people on this site are wondering if they can get permission to telework even if they have kids at home...the opposite of not wanting to do their jobs!

Frankly, I think downplaying the risk is the biggest concern in the US right now. Advising people to take precautions like avoiding unnecessarily going to crowded places is sensible...because the economic impact of that is far lower than the alternative if there is an outbreak leading to much more extreme quarantine measures (like what Italy is currently experiencing). Advising employers to allow telework as much as possible would also be a good, relatively mild intervention. The likelihood is high, at this point, that a lot of people will contract the virus (I've seen 30-70% in the next year). Luckily, most people will be just fine, but a much larger fraction than from the seasonal flu will have severe symptoms. If we can keep the spread at a manageable rate, then our health systems will be able to treat those people. If we pretend like nothing's happening and the rest of the world is, apparently, just stupid and fear-mongering...well, then we can't help all of those people and the economic impact will be far worse than people cautiously deciding not to go to the movies and to Disney World for a few weeks.

Most major tech conferences for the next few months in teh Bay Area have been cancelled. Those conferences are planned over-a-year ahead of time. Companies are going to lose a lot of money by cancelling these conferences, but they've done the risk analysis and decided it was better than risking an outbreak at one of their conferences. If you don't trust foreign governments to understand economic risk, do you trust Facebook? Intel? Workday? (https://www.barrons.com/articles/coronavirus-is-forcing-companies-to-cancel-conferences-51583147701)

30 to 70%? That's quite a range. That should tell you something right there.

Yeah, it tells me there are a lot of unknowns right now...which means that it's irresponsible to dismiss the situation as NBD. FWIW, I think the details of the virus itself are currently much better understood than the likely responses, which is also contributing to such a broad range.

[Anonymous]

A bit over a month ago, I suggested we start building hospitals in 10 days like the Chinese, and people here called me crazy. Washington state is now purchasing a motel and starting to construct modular facilities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new deaths in Washington state. The Street’s not gonna like that.

Probably in the nursing home.

I'm guessing that's likely the case. As far as I know, there was still an 80 year old and a 90 year old patient who were transferred to the hospital from the same LTC that the original two victims came from. So I don't know if they have now succumbed or if the victims came from somewhere else.