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Who do you think is going to win and why?
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Anonymous
+1 |
Anonymous
Not w Vance in charge |
Anonymous
That is unlikely. Trump is terrible and the vast majority knows it and will vote to protect their families. He is a menace. |
Anonymous
Wow. Did you graduate from high school yet? |
Anonymous
| Trump will win because he is a better candidate with better policies. It’s that simple. |
Anonymous
No the problem is you presenting the above as facts. Here let me amend that for you: Illegal immigration was way down under Trump for a brief period in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic, and after spiking majorly in 2019 and early 2020. Border encounters then rose rapidly in late 2020 and early 2021 when Trump was still president. This rapid rise continued under Biden. Biden AND Harris then hammered out a bipartisan immigration bill to address this obvious issue, making host of concessions to conservatives in order to get agreement on both progressive wants and common sense solutions (most of which were aimed at improving procedures and staffing causing a massive backlog in processing legal immigration requests). Trump then told the GOP to vote against the bill because he feared it would be successful, thus taking away the biggest tool he feels he has to win in 2024-- fear mongering over immigration. After this bill failed, the Biden Administration still undertook as many procedural changes as they could to stem the tide and get the border under control, despite being hamstrung by Congress. Today, encounters at the border are now at about the same level as they were when Trump took office, and actually lower than they were at their highest point in Trump's administration. And that is the truth. Its complicated and no one is an obvious winner here. But the narrative that Trump has immigration under control because it fell to very low levels DURING THE PANDEMIC is one of the biggest lies that gets repeated in this election. Trump's policies did nothing to change the situation at the border and he has actively fought against a solution to the problem in the intervening years. |
Anonymous
That's just the GOP cannibalizing the same- day vote. And the gender gap is real. Enough Liz Cheney and Nikki Haley voters will vote for Harris. You might be seeing THAT in the GOP early vote. 🙂 |
Anonymous
| ^Sorry, correcting an error. Today, encounters at the border are now at about the same level as the were when Biden took office. They were actually much lower at the beginning of Trump's term but rose exponentially while he was in office, excepting a brief lull due to Covid. |
Anonymous
"They're eating the dogs!" |
Anonymous
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I think Kamala after reading this article with Lincoln Project co-founder Stuart Stevens. He said the Harris campaign was going to be considered the best of all time.
Lots of great stuff, but this stuck out re who was going to win: "The structure of the race is the same. That’s why I also think Joe Biden could have won. Forty-seven percent of the country is MAGA, 53% isn’t. The Harris campaign has a very simple goal: Coalesce as much as they can of the 53%. So how are they doing? Well, we woke up today and Liz Cheney and Bernie Sanders are supporting the same candidate for president. Not so bad. The Harris campaign has done a balance of dealing with these issues you would deal with in a normal race—economy, border—while reminding people that this isn’t remotely a normal race. And they’re doing things that no one’s done before, like showing clips of a Trump rally at a Harris rally, which was brilliant. I wish I was in the room and came up with that idea. They’re showing a lot of composure. It’s like sports. They seem very focused, calm. They have a plan. They have unlimited resources. And Trump—I mean, do you really think somebody sat in a room and said, “Look, we have a weakness with people who believe that there should be military tribunals, so you need to go out and talk about that to store up the military-tribunal vote”? There is no plan except voter intimidation. These polls, what do they show you? Trump has a really hard time making 47%. He won with 46.1%. Romney lost with 47.2% and this guy, out on bail, has won one election in his life, with 46.1%. You don’t see Trump-like candidates doing well in states like Pennsylvania. It’s a very chaotic campaign that has no focus. Fundamentally, what is the bargain you get when you vote Republican? This is why the Senate races for Republicans are hurting. What do you get? They say, “Well, you know these thousands of brutal, armed immigrants that you have to deal with every day trying to drive to work? I’ll get rid of those.” Except they aren’t there, right? It’s the festival of imaginary demons." This Bush and Romney Campaign Vet Is Extremely Bullish on Kamala Harris’s Chances Vanity Fair Stuart Stevens, a former GOP campaign strategist, talks Trump in the polls, Chris LaCivita’s modern swift boating, and how he thinks Harris will win. https://apple.news/APvWKIeY0RBSDYcH9BB-wYQ |
Anonymous
Trump is talking about a dead golfer's weiner. Aside from MAGA, voters aren't taking Trump seriously. He'll lose. |
Anonymous
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It's wild how the "IMMIGRATION IS MY MAIN ISSUE AND WHY I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP" people ignore the fact that there were 12 million illegals in the country at the end of his term and that he actually was largely ineffectual and incoherent in dealing with it. His wall was a failure, for one. And many of his policies failed, either due to being shot down by the courts as unconstitutional or lacking statutory grounding, along with Title 42 authority expiring.
They hear the "tough talk" but they lack the deeper understanding to understand Trump's talk was smoke and mirrors. |
Anonymous
Genocide is a niche cause? Interesting. And of course you know you can support the right for Israel to exist and still be against Arab genocide. I hope Harris loses on this fact alone. She will always be rot in my mind for her cowardly approach to this conflict. |
Anonymous
I think it is highly unlikely Trump will win the popular vote. Period. In 2016, he won 46.1% of the popular vote. In 2020, at the height of his popularity, he won 46.8% of the popular vote. There just has not been 3.5% of turnover in popularity TO Trump. Yes, there have been people disenchanted by the Biden administration. But there are also large demographics that are swinging over to support Harris. Women of all races, but especially, white women, have had large swings to the Democratic ticket due to Dobbs. And women are still 55% of the electorate. Harris has a bigger advantage with women than Trump has with men. Additionally, post-Dobbs, there has been a large number of women and youth (18-30) who have registered to vote and those groups tend to be from 65%-80% Democratic. And while there has been back and forth with minority groups, Harris still holds a large share of the minority voters. In 2022 and 2023, it was shown that wherever abortion rights were on the ticket, that there was a large, unexpected surge of youth and women voters that came out to vote for reproductive rights and also voted for the Democratic ticket. This will likely be in effect in the swing states. Also, if you look at polling, there are majorities in the polls that show that people think Harris will be better for the economy than Trump, especially after his poor platform of tariffs was analyzed by economists and also after his recent comments in rallies where it shows that he no longer has a very strong grasp of macro-economics (if he ever did). There are majorities of Americans who believe that we should not be elected a near-octogenarian to the White House. There are large majorities who believe that January 6 insurrectionists should be in prison and also believe that Trump was central to the January 6 insurrection. More than half of Americans polled believe that Trump was guilty in New York and was rightfully convicted. Add in that many people affected by natural disasters realize that Trump really doesn't want to spend federal money on disaster recovery or helping victims of natural disasters. His recent debacle of traveling to Asheville after Hurricane Helen and the Secret Service shutting down the only working highway into Asheville causing one of the biggest traffic nightmares they've seen, didn't help his case either. He doesn't want to send aid, but he does want to obstruct the people trying to work and rebuild the area. Good job. I just don't see how all of this adds up to a 3.5% gain in popularity. As for the electoral college, I also think that Harris is going to pull it out. I think she will keep the blue firewall states of WI, MI, PA. I also think that despite recent suggestions otherwise, that she will keep NV and actually, unexpected win NC. I think she will win NC only because of Hurricane Helene and the devastation that it caused. With the exception of Asheville and Boone, the rest of the western portion of the state, that was largely devastated by Helene, is very solidly red. I think there are going to a lot of folks who cannot afford the time or the inconvenience of trying to vote when polling stations are not accessible and when trying to rebuild their lives from having most of their region devastated by the hurricane. That, plus the Mark Robinson albatross will keep many folks from bothering to come out to vote. So I think NC will have very low turnout, especially on the west side of the state. Trump only won NC in 2020 by less than 1.5% (2.76M to 2.68M, so only by 74K votes out of 5.4M votes cast). I think the decline in turnout will be almost all Republican. So, Harris will likely win between 276-292 electoral votes. |
Anonymous
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