Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

I really don't know. I'm in Florida and I think the results might surprise people. The pot and abortion amendments will draw a lot of people to the polls. I see the Amendment 4 commercials every single time I watch tv, and GOP have no good ones.

[Anonymous]

Harris. Reasons:
Trump fatigue
Trump not as novel
Dem memories of 2016
Trump age
Blue wall polls tilt Harris

I still think it could go either way, but I'd rather be Harris

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Trump was going to win from June 2016 onwards, I thought Biden was going to win from about August 2020, and as it stands now, I have no idea. I feel like I’m navigating blind.

same. but I guess because I'm a pessimist - I'm anticipating Trump.

[Anonymous]

Harris

I don't know anyone who voted "for" Biden. Everybody voted "against" Trump. That hasn't changed. They will vote against Trump again.

[Anonymous]

my dispassionate assessment is we have never elected a liberal from California as president and unless the demographics of the country have radically changed we aren’t going to. Plus, Harris is the incumbent and a large majority day the country is on the wrong track. So I think Trump wins.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:my dispassionate assessment is we have never elected a liberal from California as president and unless the demographics of the country have radically changed we aren’t going to. Plus, Harris is the incumbent and a large majority day the country is on the wrong track. So I think Trump wins.

I think we're on the wrong track and have responded to polls as such, but that's because of the stonewalling on any progress by the GOP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:my dispassionate assessment is we have never elected a liberal from California as president and unless the demographics of the country have radically changed we aren’t going to. Plus, Harris is the incumbent and a large majority day the country is on the wrong track. So I think Trump wins.

“say”

[Anonymous]

I read and no cannot currently link that internal leaked GOP polls are quite bad for Trump, and separately read that a lot of conveniently blue-checked yet very low-follower X accounts with trash polls favoring Trump are his only current campaign strategy.

I am very confident Harris/Walz will win, there’s a well-coordinated GOTV campaign, the early voting is largely from Democratic strongholds, the campaign is extremely well-funded, broadly supported, and well-run. I think the trolling here has some folks spun up but there is no utility in worrying. I don’t think Trump has it in him to take this, and I don’t think post Georgia voting decision, that there’s a good-enough campaign to do more than feebly try to push against legitimate election results by the GOP. Police aren’t going to repeat January 6; they aren’t going to get hit and maimed and killed for a lunatic fringe to shit-fit over a Harris win.

European reporting which of course does not go fringe-poll-rabbit-hole largely supports a Harris landslide FWIW.

[Anonymous]

Harris wins.

[Anonymous]

Trump and even though I voted for Trump, Im not saying that because it's what I want. A month ago, I definitely thought it was going to be Harris. Not anymore.

[Anonymous]

Gut feel is that this is on a knife's edge, and Harris will pull it out in a squeaker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:55% Trump
45% Harris
I suspect there are secret Trump voters.

This. I know a lot of registered Democrats who vote Republican. This is a big thing in Maryland. It is useless to be registered as a Republican in Maryland. Registering as a Democrat allows you to vote and have impact in local elections.

Additionally, registering as a Democrat shields you from the hate speech of many and allows your children to have play dates.

So… one state equals all the state and you’re a paranoid mess?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read and no cannot currently link that internal leaked GOP polls are quite bad for Trump, and separately read that a lot of conveniently blue-checked yet very low-follower X accounts with trash polls favoring Trump are his only current campaign strategy.

I am very confident Harris/Walz will win, there’s a well-coordinated GOTV campaign, the early voting is largely from Democratic strongholds, the campaign is extremely well-funded, broadly supported, and well-run. I think the trolling here has some folks spun up but there is no utility in worrying. I don’t think Trump has it in him to take this, and I don’t think post Georgia voting decision, that there’s a good-enough campaign to do more than feebly try to push against legitimate election results by the GOP. Police aren’t going to repeat January 6; they aren’t going to get hit and maimed and killed for a lunatic fringe to shit-fit over a Harris win.

European reporting which of course does not go fringe-poll-rabbit-hole largely supports a Harris landslide FWIW.

I think you’re saying that you read leaked internal GOP polls that are bad for Trump but that you can’t link to them, am I reading that right?

I agree with the rest of your post. Harris has the ground game, the enthusiasm, plus many people are just over the Trump circus (the dementia, the pettiness, the corruption, the mishandling of everything, the admiration of Hitler, Project 2025, killing Roe, January 6, his felonies, his being a rapist, him tanking the economy after murdering a million Americans…). I don’t believe there are going to be secret Trump voters unless you mean loud Trump voters who are secretly going to be voting for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really don't know. I'm in Florida and I think the results might surprise people. The pot and abortion amendments will draw a lot of people to the polls. I see the Amendment 4 commercials every single time I watch tv, and GOP have no good ones.

There are literally a million more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida.

Zero percentage pot and abortion going to save the day for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don't know. I'm in Florida and I think the results might surprise people. The pot and abortion amendments will draw a lot of people to the polls. I see the Amendment 4 commercials every single time I watch tv, and GOP have no good ones.

There are literally a million more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida.

Zero percentage pot and abortion going to save the day for Harris.

I'm not a Democrat and I am voting for Harris. It really tells you very little.