Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Harris will lose because of Gaza

I don’t think most Americans give a cr*p about a dispute that’s been going on forever. Most Americans support Israel’s right to exists. This is a niche cause.

Genocide is a niche cause? Interesting. And of course you know you can support the right for Israel to exist and still be against Arab genocide.

I hope Harris loses on this fact alone. She will always be rot in my mind for her cowardly approach to this conflict.

Genocide. Hmm.

What are you thoughts on the conflict in Sudan?

Crickets.

Americans vote on domestic policy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Title says it all, but now that we are 13 days to election day, who do you think is going to win (Trump or Harris) and why (lawn signs, chatter with friends, campaign decisions, etc.)?

Today, I think Trump is going to win. The move for Harris to hold a rally in TX is interesting, and if TX is in play this whole election got a lot more interesting. I have a feeling the protest abstainers re Gaza are going to impact us here like Bernie Bros in 2016 in key places (MI).

I think Harris will win because of the gender gap.

More white women have always voted GOP. However, this is the first national election AFTER the Dobbs decision. All women have the potential to be adversely impacted. Enough white women - especially the college educated ones - when in the ballot box, will choose reproductive rights.

Harris is probably going to lose. The early voter turnout in swing states so far, has been whiter, older and more Republican than in 2020. None of these bode well for Harris.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/early-voting-trends-2024-2020-visuals-dg/index.html

Looks like Harris is going to win PA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Title says it all, but now that we are 13 days to election day, who do you think is going to win (Trump or Harris) and why (lawn signs, chatter with friends, campaign decisions, etc.)?

Today, I think Trump is going to win. The move for Harris to hold a rally in TX is interesting, and if TX is in play this whole election got a lot more interesting. I have a feeling the protest abstainers re Gaza are going to impact us here like Bernie Bros in 2016 in key places (MI).

I think Harris will win because of the gender gap.

More white women have always voted GOP. However, this is the first national election AFTER the Dobbs decision. All women have the potential to be adversely impacted. Enough white women - especially the college educated ones - when in the ballot box, will choose reproductive rights.

Harris is probably going to lose. The early voter turnout in swing states so far, has been whiter, older and more Republican than in 2020. None of these bode well for Harris.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/early-voting-trends-2024-2020-visuals-dg/index.html

Looks like Harris is going to win PA.

I don’t think you’re reading that correctly lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have thought Harris will get the popular vote and Trump will win the electoral college.

But I think Trump is going to win both.

And I'm a Kamala fan....

I think it is highly unlikely Trump will win the popular vote. Period.

In 2016, he won 46.1% of the popular vote. In 2020, at the height of his popularity, he won 46.8% of the popular vote. There just has not been 3.5% of turnover in popularity TO Trump. Yes, there have been people disenchanted by the Biden administration. But there are also large demographics that are swinging over to support Harris. Women of all races, but especially, white women, have had large swings to the Democratic ticket due to Dobbs. And women are still 55% of the electorate. Harris has a bigger advantage with women than Trump has with men. Additionally, post-Dobbs, there has been a large number of women and youth (18-30) who have registered to vote and those groups tend to be from 65%-80% Democratic. And while there has been back and forth with minority groups, Harris still holds a large share of the minority voters.

In 2022 and 2023, it was shown that wherever abortion rights were on the ticket, that there was a large, unexpected surge of youth and women voters that came out to vote for reproductive rights and also voted for the Democratic ticket. This will likely be in effect in the swing states.

Also, if you look at polling, there are majorities in the polls that show that people think Harris will be better for the economy than Trump, especially after his poor platform of tariffs was analyzed by economists and also after his recent comments in rallies where it shows that he no longer has a very strong grasp of macro-economics (if he ever did). There are majorities of Americans who believe that we should not be elected a near-octogenarian to the White House. There are large majorities who believe that January 6 insurrectionists should be in prison and also believe that Trump was central to the January 6 insurrection. More than half of Americans polled believe that Trump was guilty in New York and was rightfully convicted. Add in that many people affected by natural disasters realize that Trump really doesn't want to spend federal money on disaster recovery or helping victims of natural disasters. His recent debacle of traveling to Asheville after Hurricane Helen and the Secret Service shutting down the only working highway into Asheville causing one of the biggest traffic nightmares they've seen, didn't help his case either. He doesn't want to send aid, but he does want to obstruct the people trying to work and rebuild the area. Good job.

I just don't see how all of this adds up to a 3.5% gain in popularity.

As for the electoral college, I also think that Harris is going to pull it out. I think she will keep the blue firewall states of WI, MI, PA. I also think that despite recent suggestions otherwise, that she will keep NV and actually, unexpected win NC. I think she will win NC only because of Hurricane Helene and the devastation that it caused. With the exception of Asheville and Boone, the rest of the western portion of the state, that was largely devastated by Helene, is very solidly red. I think there are going to a lot of folks who cannot afford the time or the inconvenience of trying to vote when polling stations are not accessible and when trying to rebuild their lives from having most of their region devastated by the hurricane. That, plus the Mark Robinson albatross will keep many folks from bothering to come out to vote. So I think NC will have very low turnout, especially on the west side of the state. Trump only won NC in 2020 by less than 1.5% (2.76M to 2.68M, so only by 74K votes out of 5.4M votes cast). I think the decline in turnout will be almost all Republican.

So, Harris will likely win between 276-292 electoral votes.

+1

I think you nailed it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Title says it all, but now that we are 13 days to election day, who do you think is going to win (Trump or Harris) and why (lawn signs, chatter with friends, campaign decisions, etc.)?

Today, I think Trump is going to win. The move for Harris to hold a rally in TX is interesting, and if TX is in play this whole election got a lot more interesting. I have a feeling the protest abstainers re Gaza are going to impact us here like Bernie Bros in 2016 in key places (MI).

I think Harris will win because of the gender gap.

More white women have always voted GOP. However, this is the first national election AFTER the Dobbs decision. All women have the potential to be adversely impacted. Enough white women - especially the college educated ones - when in the ballot box, will choose reproductive rights.

You know this how? Roe was overturned in 2022 and Republicans won white women voters in the midterm election. Why would many switch two years later when abortion rights are already winning in referendums across the country?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's wild how the "IMMIGRATION IS MY MAIN ISSUE AND WHY I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP" people ignore the fact that there were 12 million illegals in the country at the end of his term and that he actually was largely ineffectual and incoherent in dealing with it. His wall was a failure, for one. And many of his policies failed, either due to being shot down by the courts as unconstitutional or lacking statutory grounding, along with Title 42 authority expiring.

They hear the "tough talk" but they lack the deeper understanding to understand Trump's talk was smoke and mirrors.

No, I voted for Trump because of inflation and immigration. He was way better on the border than Biden-Harris. The Democrats constantly tried to stop him from securing the border with lawsuits and shutting down the government, but he managed to get illegal crossings way down through executive actions and agreements with foreign countries. He can do the same thing in 2025, go around the open borders Democrats to secure our border.

You don’t get to tell people what issues they should prioritize and how they should feel about the candidates. Trump tried to secure the border, whereas Biden-Harris opened the border by cancelling his policies. They denied there was a crisis for more than three years and allowed massive illegal immigration to flow into our communities with disastrous results. They saw the polls that the public disagreed with their policies. They could have acted earlier, instead of gaslighting people that the border was secure and pulling the election year stunt they pulled. I voted for Trump and against Harris, because it’s obvious that she believes in open borders. A country with no borders is not a country at all. With her policies, showed a disgraceful disregard for our sovereignty, national security and public safety.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You think that Sean Spicer, Trump's former director of Communications and former press secretary is going to be unbiased? He's part of Trump's inner circle and he's going to find all the Republican leaning garbage polls to support his claim to try and get his former boss back into the White House.

More sowing seeds of election fraud and election challenges because "the polls" (that they rigged) all said something that didn't and wasn't going to happen.

[Anonymous]

I'm sure he is biased. Who isn't?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's wild how the "IMMIGRATION IS MY MAIN ISSUE AND WHY I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP" people ignore the fact that there were 12 million illegals in the country at the end of his term and that he actually was largely ineffectual and incoherent in dealing with it. His wall was a failure, for one. And many of his policies failed, either due to being shot down by the courts as unconstitutional or lacking statutory grounding, along with Title 42 authority expiring.

They hear the "tough talk" but they lack the deeper understanding to understand Trump's talk was smoke and mirrors.

No, I voted for Trump because of inflation and immigration. He was way better on the border than Biden-Harris. The Democrats constantly tried to stop him from securing the border with lawsuits and shutting down the government, but he managed to get illegal crossings way down through executive actions and agreements with foreign countries. He can do the same thing in 2025, go around the open borders Democrats to secure our border.

You don’t get to tell people what issues they should prioritize and how they should feel about the candidates. Trump tried to secure the border, whereas Biden-Harris opened the border by cancelling his policies. They denied there was a crisis for more than three years and allowed massive illegal immigration to flow into our communities with disastrous results. They saw the polls that the public disagreed with their policies. They could have acted earlier, instead of gaslighting people that the border was secure and pulling the election year stunt they pulled. I voted for Trump and against Harris, because it’s obvious that she believes in open borders. A country with no borders is not a country at all. With her policies, showed a disgraceful disregard for our sovereignty, national security and public safety.

+1 and well said. Can’t wait to vote for Trump for these reasons on 11/5.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have thought Harris will get the popular vote and Trump will win the electoral college.

But I think Trump is going to win both.

And I'm a Kamala fan....

I think it is highly unlikely Trump will win the popular vote. Period.

In 2016, he won 46.1% of the popular vote. In 2020, at the height of his popularity, he won 46.8% of the popular vote. There just has not been 3.5% of turnover in popularity TO Trump. Yes, there have been people disenchanted by the Biden administration. But there are also large demographics that are swinging over to support Harris. Women of all races, but especially, white women, have had large swings to the Democratic ticket due to Dobbs. And women are still 55% of the electorate. Harris has a bigger advantage with women than Trump has with men. Additionally, post-Dobbs, there has been a large number of women and youth (18-30) who have registered to vote and those groups tend to be from 65%-80% Democratic. And while there has been back and forth with minority groups, Harris still holds a large share of the minority voters.

In 2022 and 2023, it was shown that wherever abortion rights were on the ticket, that there was a large, unexpected surge of youth and women voters that came out to vote for reproductive rights and also voted for the Democratic ticket. This will likely be in effect in the swing states.

Also, if you look at polling, there are majorities in the polls that show that people think Harris will be better for the economy than Trump, especially after his poor platform of tariffs was analyzed by economists and also after his recent comments in rallies where it shows that he no longer has a very strong grasp of macro-economics (if he ever did). There are majorities of Americans who believe that we should not be elected a near-octogenarian to the White House. There are large majorities who believe that January 6 insurrectionists should be in prison and also believe that Trump was central to the January 6 insurrection. More than half of Americans polled believe that Trump was guilty in New York and was rightfully convicted. Add in that many people affected by natural disasters realize that Trump really doesn't want to spend federal money on disaster recovery or helping victims of natural disasters. His recent debacle of traveling to Asheville after Hurricane Helen and the Secret Service shutting down the only working highway into Asheville causing one of the biggest traffic nightmares they've seen, didn't help his case either. He doesn't want to send aid, but he does want to obstruct the people trying to work and rebuild the area. Good job.

I just don't see how all of this adds up to a 3.5% gain in popularity.

As for the electoral college, I also think that Harris is going to pull it out. I think she will keep the blue firewall states of WI, MI, PA. I also think that despite recent suggestions otherwise, that she will keep NV and actually, unexpected win NC. I think she will win NC only because of Hurricane Helene and the devastation that it caused. With the exception of Asheville and Boone, the rest of the western portion of the state, that was largely devastated by Helene, is very solidly red. I think there are going to a lot of folks who cannot afford the time or the inconvenience of trying to vote when polling stations are not accessible and when trying to rebuild their lives from having most of their region devastated by the hurricane. That, plus the Mark Robinson albatross will keep many folks from bothering to come out to vote. So I think NC will have very low turnout, especially on the west side of the state. Trump only won NC in 2020 by less than 1.5% (2.76M to 2.68M, so only by 74K votes out of 5.4M votes cast). I think the decline in turnout will be almost all Republican.

So, Harris will likely win between 276-292 electoral votes.

You’re spinning things. There was not a big swing of white women to Democrats in the 2022 election. Some states voted for abortion rights referendums and Republicans, for example, Ohio. There is no evidence of a big youth turnout in this election. The numbers in early voting are low. Even with abortion rights referendums, from the data, more Republicans are turning out in states like Arizona and Florida.

[Anonymous]

Have a college student. They are yawnnn on abortion. They do care about economy and future and free speech. The women my age seem to care about abortion. I had a premie so I changed my view but realize I am not the norm. The abortion issue sailed. I also think plan B pill changed things. That and more descriptive health class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Title says it all, but now that we are 13 days to election day, who do you think is going to win (Trump or Harris) and why (lawn signs, chatter with friends, campaign decisions, etc.)?

Today, I think Trump is going to win. The move for Harris to hold a rally in TX is interesting, and if TX is in play this whole election got a lot more interesting. I have a feeling the protest abstainers re Gaza are going to impact us here like Bernie Bros in 2016 in key places (MI).

I think Harris will win because of the gender gap.

More white women have always voted GOP. However, this is the first national election AFTER the Dobbs decision. All women have the potential to be adversely impacted. Enough white women - especially the college educated ones - when in the ballot box, will choose reproductive rights.

You know this how? Roe was overturned in 2022 and Republicans won white women voters in the midterm election. Why would many switch two years later when abortion rights are already winning in referendums across the country?

White women voters and black women voters and brown women voters and women voters of every color are not going to vote for the GOP. The GOP screwed over our daughters. You're not getting our vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Have a college student. They are yawnnn on abortion. They do care about economy and future and free speech. The women my age seem to care about abortion. I had a premie so I changed my view but realize I am not the norm. The abortion issue sailed. I also think plan B pill changed things. That and more descriptive health class.

I just heard from my college student today wanting to absolutely ensure that her absentee ballot had arrived in the mail and how I was going to get it to her. College students are going to vote.

[Anonymous]

Kamala is obviously going to win.