2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:According to the liberal New York Times, Republicans are leading Senate races in critical states:

Montana
Tim Sheehy 52% +8
Jon Tester 44%

Florida
Rick Scott 49% +9%
Debbie Mucarsel Powell 40%

Texas
Ted Cruz 48% +4%
Colin Allred 44%

Jon Tester is done. The NYT has Trump leading Harris 57%-40% in Montana. No way he gets enough ticket splitters to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html

I'll believe it when I see it. Despite polling, which is only a tiny sampling of the electorate, results can be very different.

Tester was polling behind in all three of his previous races and has always been a surprising win in deep red Montana. In both 2006 and 2012, he won with a plurality but not a majority of the electorage (in the 49% range) despite polling poorly. In 2020, President Trump tried very hard to unseat Tester, even traveling to Montana four times during the season to campaign for Tester's opponent. But despite that, Tester not only won the election but passed the 50% mark in votes for the first time in his career. And 2020 was one of the highest turnouts the state has ever had for elections.

The real problem is that the majority of the people in Montana that vote for Tester do not receive or answer polls. These are farmers, blue collar workers and people working multiple jobs to make ends meet. They don't have time to answer polls. So there is a huge undocumented portion of the Montana electorate who are very pro-Tester. They like that he is a multi-generational native of Montana that owns and works his own farm. He has values like they do.

Despite polling, I expect this one to be a toss-up and will see where the chips fall when election day comes, but I expect it to be very close and would not be at all surprised to see Tester emerge again as the victor. But, I also won't be surprised to see Sheehy upset the incumbent either.

There's a big anti-outsider sentiment right now in MT. Long time residents hate that folks - like Sheehy - have moved to Montana in recent years and driven up the cost of real estate.

The GOP could not have picked a worse candidate. The fact that they could not recruit a born & bred conservative Montanan to run against Tester says a lot.

I will not be surprised at all if Tester pulls off a victory. I was recently in MT visiting family in August and was shocked by the lack of Trump signs and almost no Sheehy signs. I saw a good amount of Tester signs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:According to the liberal New York Times, Republicans are leading Senate races in critical states:

Montana
Tim Sheehy 52% +8
Jon Tester 44%

Florida
Rick Scott 49% +9%
Debbie Mucarsel Powell 40%

Texas
Ted Cruz 48% +4%
Colin Allred 44%

Jon Tester is done. The NYT has Trump leading Harris 57%-40% in Montana. No way he gets enough ticket splitters to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html

I'll believe it when I see it. Despite polling, which is only a tiny sampling of the electorate, results can be very different.

Tester was polling behind in all three of his previous races and has always been a surprising win in deep red Montana. In both 2006 and 2012, he won with a plurality but not a majority of the electorage (in the 49% range) despite polling poorly. In 2020, President Trump tried very hard to unseat Tester, even traveling to Montana four times during the season to campaign for Tester's opponent. But despite that, Tester not only won the election but passed the 50% mark in votes for the first time in his career. And 2020 was one of the highest turnouts the state has ever had for elections.

The real problem is that the majority of the people in Montana that vote for Tester do not receive or answer polls. These are farmers, blue collar workers and people working multiple jobs to make ends meet. They don't have time to answer polls. So there is a huge undocumented portion of the Montana electorate who are very pro-Tester. They like that he is a multi-generational native of Montana that owns and works his own farm. He has values like they do.

Despite polling, I expect this one to be a toss-up and will see where the chips fall when election day comes, but I expect it to be very close and would not be at all surprised to see Tester emerge again as the victor. But, I also won't be surprised to see Sheehy upset the incumbent either.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/montana/rosendale-vs-tester

You are wrong. Tester was up in all of the polls in 2018. He won re-election in a midterm year in a massive blue wave election.

He is down significantly in all of the polls for this election. Harris is being blown out in Montana. There is no way he will be able to get a sufficient number of ticket splitters to win. IMO, he made a mistake being a patty line vote for Biden for the last four years. He should have tried to distinguish himself like Joe Manchin did. Republican voters in Montana have no reason to cast a ballot for him because he’s a party line Democrat. The article had his approval rating in the state in negative territory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Figure the democrats lose Montana and Ohio. There don't seem to be any possible pick ups, so long Senate

Nope

Florida Rick Scott is in play .

Who wants him as leader?? Omg

[Anonymous]

She laid it out so well. Hogan is weak. Can't take tough votes.

[Anonymous]

He should just end his campaign now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He should just end his campaign now.

WTF. Did he tweet about the Eagles and called them the Steelers. OMG and LOL. They need to run him out of the state on a rail.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He should just end his campaign now.

WTF. Did he tweet about the Eagles and called them the Steelers. OMG and LOL. They need to run him out of the state on a rail.

People from Connecticutt can't tell Pittsburgh from Philadelphia.

He claims to be born and raised in Pittsburgh and still owns a house there, but he hasn't lived it in for years because he lives in Connecticutt. I hate football, but I'm from Pittsburgh, so I still know a ton about the Steelers. You can't be from Pittsburgh and not know at least the difference between the Steelers and the Eagles. Hence, he's been out of Pittsburgh, so long he's forgotten what it means to be from da Burgh.

[Anonymous]

Montana

(read the thread)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Have you all been looking at Nebraska?

The independent Candidate is tied with Deb Fischer (R). He has promised he won't cave towards either party.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/05/15/dan-osborn-spurns-democrats-other-parties-whose-help-he-sought-in-senate-race/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have you all been looking at Nebraska?

The independent Candidate is tied with Deb Fischer (R). He has promised he won't cave towards either party.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/05/15/dan-osborn-spurns-democrats-other-parties-whose-help-he-sought-in-senate-race/

Who would he caucus with? Who would be in charge of the Senate if he wins, with things as close as they currently are?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Have you all been looking at Nebraska?

The independent Candidate is tied with Deb Fischer (R). He has promised he won't cave towards either party.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/05/15/dan-osborn-spurns-democrats-other-parties-whose-help-he-sought-in-senate-race/

Who would he caucus with? Who would be in charge of the Senate if he wins, with things as close as they currently are?

He is more philosophically aligned with the democrats, but he would obviously be courted by both sides with a lot of immediate power given.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seriously, how many male politicians are closeted gay men?

Am I missing something here? Why is Hawley supposed to be gay? Other than the hot naked guy poster than hung in his dorm room, I mean.

[Anonymous]

Since a Democrat winning statewide office in Texas still feels like a long shot, Allred’s kicking the crap out of Cruz.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Since a Democrat winning statewide office in Texas still feels like a long shot, Allred’s kicking the crap out of Cruz.

Me again. I missed one:

[Anonymous]

The Senate will be 51 or 52 Republicans.