2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Indiana’s Senate seat is also open since Mike Braun announced he’s running for Governor.

Which is partially why you saw Victoria Spartz vote the way she has during the speakers election.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Figure the democrats lose Montana and Ohio. There don't seem to be any possible pick ups, so long Senate

Why Ohio? Is Brown not running for re-election. He is well liked in Ohio, as he brings a lot of money to that state.

Because Ohio moves further to the red every election. We just saw a great candidate loose to someone almost as flawed as Hershel Walker. The republicans ran a candidate who supported spousal abuse and they won.

You underestimate how much goodwill and incumbency advantage Sherrod Brown has

If not him than Manchin in WV (a +40 republican state, so as popular as he is, he's still vulnerable), Nevada (a very purple state), Sinema in Arizona (is there a more unpopular senator), not to mention Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Surely the republicans get 1 of those in addition to Montana. Meanwhile, democrats will be trying to flip Texas and Florida?

Why is Montana a flip, Testor is still more likely than not to run and he’s won it 3 times already.

Ohio, Brown won b 6% in 2021 and then by 6.8% in 2018. I don’t see the down trend, he will be favored.

The Dems will be slight favorites in all those other states. Dems are definitely on defense, and likely 1 seat will go but 2+ is no given. Maybe 50/50 the Republicans can get 2.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Figure the democrats lose Montana and Ohio. There don't seem to be any possible pick ups, so long Senate

Why Ohio? Is Brown not running for re-election. He is well liked in Ohio, as he brings a lot of money to that state.

Because Ohio moves further to the red every election. We just saw a great candidate loose to someone almost as flawed as Hershel Walker. The republicans ran a candidate who supported spousal abuse and they won.

You underestimate how much goodwill and incumbency advantage Sherrod Brown has

If not him than Manchin in WV (a +40 republican state, so as popular as he is, he's still vulnerable), Nevada (a very purple state), Sinema in Arizona (is there a more unpopular senator), not to mention Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Surely the republicans get 1 of those in addition to Montana. Meanwhile, democrats will be trying to flip Texas and Florida?

Why is Montana a flip, Testor is still more likely than not to run and he’s won it 3 times already.

Ohio, Brown won b 6% in 2021 and then by 6.8% in 2018. I don’t see the down trend, he will be favored.

The Dems will be slight favorites in all those other states. Dems are definitely on defense, and likely 1 seat will go but 2+ is no given. Maybe 50/50 the Republicans can get 2.

+1 Tester and Brown and Manchin are very popular and it’s hard to unseat a two-term incumbent. Even that pile of Russian garbage Ron Johnson won.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Indiana’s Senate seat is also open since Mike Braun announced he’s running for Governor.

Which is partially why you saw Victoria Spartz vote the way she has during the speakers election.

She’s a shoe-in for that job with being Ukrainian, no?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Figure the democrats lose Montana and Ohio. There don't seem to be any possible pick ups, so long Senate

Why Ohio? Is Brown not running for re-election. He is well liked in Ohio, as he brings a lot of money to that state.

Because Ohio moves further to the red every election. We just saw a great candidate loose to someone almost as flawed as Hershel Walker. The republicans ran a candidate who supported spousal abuse and they won.

You underestimate how much goodwill and incumbency advantage Sherrod Brown has

If not him than Manchin in WV (a +40 republican state, so as popular as he is, he's still vulnerable), Nevada (a very purple state), Sinema in Arizona (is there a more unpopular senator), not to mention Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Surely the republicans get 1 of those in addition to Montana. Meanwhile, democrats will be trying to flip Texas and Florida?

Manchin is very firmly entrenched in his seat until he voluntarily retires. He is senior enough and has enough weight that WV is not going to bounce him for a junior senator that will take years and year before he can pull the weight that Manchin does. Manchin brings a ton of money to WV and also does a lot to protect the coal industry. Right now the coal industry has no better friend than Manchin and they need him. They'll put big money and votes behind him.

Sinema has converted to Independent so she will not be able to run for the Democratic nomination and she will not be getting any money from the Democratic party. So, Sinema's notoriety is going to hurt her. Many think she switched because she wants to run for reelection but realizes that she will not be able to survive the primary against a real Democratic candidate since she's turned so conservative (after having a very progressive pre-Senate career). The real issue is that she's now bought and sold by big corporate money. She's taken so many handouts and kickbacks that she is no longer in control of her own voting. She's a corporate puppet at this point. But in any event, Arizona is up for grabs, but it won't be obvious whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will have an advantage until they are picked. But either way, Sinema is very unlikely to hold her seat, but that won't have any impact on whether the seat flips or not.

Baldwin in Wisconsin won in 2012 wth 51.4%, but won in 2018 (the Trump mid-term) by 55.4%. So, during Trump's heyday and the strongest conservative period of the last 12 years, she increased her popularity. And despite the fact that Wisconsin tends to lean 4-5% Republican, her popularity rating tends to hover around 55%. She might lose, but she will be favored to win reelection.

Casey in Pennsylvania is a 3-time incumbent with 18 years in the Senate. He beat Santorum in 2006 59% to 41%. He won in 2012 with 54% and in 2018 with 56%. Pennsylvania is purple, but when it comes to the big offices, they've been leaning Democratic (Shapiro, Fetterman, Wolf). Again, his seniority gives him extra power for the state and he will be favored to win reelection.

Stabenow's seat in Michigan is definitely vulnerable, but otherwise, I think you've picked an odd assortment of established incumbent Democrats that have signfiicant popularity in their home states, as potential flips.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Indiana’s Senate seat is also open since Mike Braun announced he’s running for Governor.

Which is partially why you saw Victoria Spartz vote the way she has during the speakers election.

She’s a shoe-in for that job with being Ukrainian, no?

Not necessarily. If I remember correctly there's also another congressman who's eyeing the seat as well. That race is going to be decided in the Republican primary and will come down so who was more conservative

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Indiana’s Senate seat is also open since Mike Braun announced he’s running for Governor.

Which is partially why you saw Victoria Spartz vote the way she has during the speakers election.

She’s a shoe-in for that job with being Ukrainian, no?

Not necessarily. If I remember correctly there's also another congressman who's eyeing the seat as well. That race is going to be decided in the Republican primary and will come down so who was more conservative

Republicans don’t automatically love Ukraine, so not sure how that gives an edge to Spartz. That primary is going to be a popcorn-level shitshow. Jim Banks will probably run. I wonder if one of the Pences will try.

[Anonymous]

Two years of McCarthy and his side show. I predict a blue tsunami. If Biden runs. I predict he will win and have looooooong coattails.

Also, by that time Trump will have been indicted, found guilty, and facing a firing squad. I hope.

[Anonymous]

I am not sure on a seat-by-seat basis. But, I'm hoping and thinking that once moderates see the sh-- show that the GOP brings to the House over the next two years -and they will- people will have no appetite for letting the GOP pretend they can govern beyond that.

I also think Biden will win handily. Economy is looking up. Things have gotten done. He's a stabilizing influence.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am not sure on a seat-by-seat basis. But, I'm hoping and thinking that once moderates see the sh-- show that the GOP brings to the House over the next two years -and they will- people will have no appetite for letting the GOP pretend they can govern beyond that.

I also think Biden will win handily. Economy is looking up. Things have gotten done. He's a stabilizing influence.

Meet the Press pointed out that the last few times the Republicans took over parts of Congress during a Democratic President’s first term they basically reminded America that they can’t govern so America re-elected the Democratic President.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot of good potential candidates for this race

Michigan Secretary of State passes:

[Anonymous]

I think many of the viable candidates in Michigan are clearing the decks for Elisa Slotkin, with the others eyeing when Peters retires in 2026.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Figure the democrats lose Montana and Ohio. There don't seem to be any possible pick ups, so long Senate

Why Ohio? Is Brown not running for re-election. He is well liked in Ohio, as he brings a lot of money to that state.

Because Ohio moves further to the red every election. We just saw a great candidate loose to someone almost as flawed as Hershel Walker. The republicans ran a candidate who supported spousal abuse and they won.

You underestimate how much goodwill and incumbency advantage Sherrod Brown has

If not him than Manchin in WV (a +40 republican state, so as popular as he is, he's still vulnerable), Nevada (a very purple state), Sinema in Arizona (is there a more unpopular senator), not to mention Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Surely the republicans get 1 of those in addition to Montana. Meanwhile, democrats will be trying to flip Texas and Florida?

Manchin is very firmly entrenched in his seat until he voluntarily retires. He is senior enough and has enough weight that WV is not going to bounce him for a junior senator that will take years and year before he can pull the weight that Manchin does. Manchin brings a ton of money to WV and also does a lot to protect the coal industry. Right now the coal industry has no better friend than Manchin and they need him. They'll put big money and votes behind him.

Sinema has converted to Independent so she will not be able to run for the Democratic nomination and she will not be getting any money from the Democratic party. So, Sinema's notoriety is going to hurt her. Many think she switched because she wants to run for reelection but realizes that she will not be able to survive the primary against a real Democratic candidate since she's turned so conservative (after having a very progressive pre-Senate career). The real issue is that she's now bought and sold by big corporate money. She's taken so many handouts and kickbacks that she is no longer in control of her own voting. She's a corporate puppet at this point. But in any event, Arizona is up for grabs, but it won't be obvious whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will have an advantage until they are picked. But either way, Sinema is very unlikely to hold her seat, but that won't have any impact on whether the seat flips or not.

Baldwin in Wisconsin won in 2012 wth 51.4%, but won in 2018 (the Trump mid-term) by 55.4%. So, during Trump's heyday and the strongest conservative period of the last 12 years, she increased her popularity. And despite the fact that Wisconsin tends to lean 4-5% Republican, her popularity rating tends to hover around 55%. She might lose, but she will be favored to win reelection.

Casey in Pennsylvania is a 3-time incumbent with 18 years in the Senate. He beat Santorum in 2006 59% to 41%. He won in 2012 with 54% and in 2018 with 56%. Pennsylvania is purple, but when it comes to the big offices, they've been leaning Democratic (Shapiro, Fetterman, Wolf). Again, his seniority gives him extra power for the state and he will be favored to win reelection.

Stabenow's seat in Michigan is definitely vulnerable, but otherwise, I think you've picked an odd assortment of established incumbent Democrats that have signfiicant popularity in their home states, as potential flips.

wv is one of the reddest states in the country now. To not consider Manchin vulnerable is absurd.

Sinema running as an independent hand the seats to republicans

Wisconsin is very purple, yes the D will be favored, but it is not a given. I'd put Michigan in the same category.

Pennsylvania leans D, but the Rs have a change.

The point is that these are all seats the Ds need to hold. There are no possible pickups- their best case scenario is not losing a seat. That is not a good map for democrats.

[Anonymous]

In WV, coal is king, and Manchin is a puppet for big coal. As long as he keeps them happy he will stay in office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think many of the viable candidates in Michigan are clearing the decks for Elisa Slotkin, with the others eyeing when Peters retires in 2026.

Has Whitmer said anything yet? She’s term limited as Governor, if she wants to be President this is a great opportunity for her.