2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I think the main questions at this point:

-can Tester hold off Sheehy
-Does the Puerto Rican and Haitian Vote impact the Florida Senate vote
-Can Osborne pull it off in NE
-Any chance Allred pulls off the Texas Miracle?

The rest of the Dems, IMO, will hold on.

Unfortunately it is unlikely that Tester will be reelected. I have a good college friend who has been a political campaign manager. He has a friend who is running the Tester campaign and my friend went out last week to support his friend. He was doing campaign office work and even spent some time canvassing and doing other work to help his friend manage the campaign. His friend said internal polling showed that Tester was not doing well, even with traditional support groups. His friend even told him before going out that the campaign was not doing well enough and if he wanted to change plans to go and support another campaign, he should consider that. My friend still went to Montana and helped the Tester campaign. I haven't spoken to him since he returned, so I don't have an update, but two weeks ago, things were not looking good on the internal front.

Sheehy has a few unforced errors and the broader MAGA issue may still manifest. I get it that he is in trouble, but no one knows how "conservative" women, even in states like Montana, are going to vote.

The Montana ballot has a separate state amendment about abortion as a separate voting line item. Given that voters
and women voters can vote on the separate abortion amendment I think it is not as relevant to the senate or presidential choices.

The bigger issue by far for Montanans is the economy. Montanans are hard, hard workers but Californians have been buying up housing ever since Covid making housing costs unaffordable for local born and raised Montanans. There is a lot of poverty in Montana and families struggling to pay the bills.

Given the fact that Tester has been in office forever and is heavily aligned with Schumer I think Sheehy will take it due to people looking for change and a better economy.

Which presidential candidate has offered as policy federal money to push 6,000,000 more housing units?

What is Sheehy or Trump's plan for more housing or more affordable housing?

Montanans don't want 6 million more housing units. They already have 4 and 5 story apartment buildings and townhouses that were built by California developers that are standing empty. Montanans want to be able to buy a 3 bedroom, 2 bath house that does not have to be big. They want a garage with a shop. They want a yard to park their RV and boat.

Understand due to the severe winters carports are not practical but the California developers are building developments with carports.

The 6 million units are nationwide, not just for Montana. Come on, man.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I can’t see Slotkin losing in MI. She has a lot of momentum the last week of the election.

+1 I’m worried about her House seat but her Senate race should be fine.

[Anonymous]

If the Iowa poll is accurate, then Osborn is likely to win Nebraska.

[Anonymous]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tester-sheehy-senate-montana-republicans-b2641211.html

Well, I'd call this surprising. As a Dem, I had resigned myself to Tester losing. This would suggest it's going to be very, very close.

"And Montana may be no different. Stephen Leuchtman, polling director for Pharos Research Group, tweeted Monday that his firm had conducted one last poll of the Montana race, concluding on Sunday. It found Tester four percentage points ahead of Sheehy, according to Leuchtman, who did not release the full poll results (his firm does privately commissioned polling), just within the survey’s 4.97 percent margin of error.

It’s far from a certain thing, but the poll does fall roughly in line with two other surveys taken in mid-to-late October which found the gap between the two candidates shrinking rapidly from earlier in the year. One, from The Hill/Emerson College, found the Republican leading by three percentage points — within the margin of error — while a second from the University of Montana - Billings survey found the race tied."

[Anonymous]

Tester is well liked in Montana. I saw a lot of Tester signs out in Montana.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Tester is well liked in Montana. I saw a lot of Tester signs out in Montana.

It is unfathomable that the voters in Montana, who hate all of the wealthy Califonians snapping up land in their state would vote for a wealthy California carpetbagger who snapped up land in Montana...particularly one who has lied about the military injury.

[Anonymous]

Tester is going to lose. It's time. He had a good run, but it's over.