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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]According to the liberal New York Times, Republicans are leading Senate races in critical states:

Montana 
Tim Sheehy 52% +8
Jon Tester 44%

Florida 
Rick Scott 49% +9%
Debbie Mucarsel Powell 40%

Texas
Ted Cruz 48% +4%
Colin Allred 44%

Jon Tester is done. The NYT has Trump leading Harris 57%-40% in Montana. No way he gets enough ticket splitters to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html[/quote]

I'll believe it when I see it.  Despite polling, which is only a tiny sampling of the electorate, results can be very different.

Tester was polling behind in all three of his previous races and has always been a surprising win in deep red Montana.  In both 2006 and 2012, he won with a plurality but not a majority of the electorage (in the 49% range) despite polling poorly.  In 2020, President Trump tried very hard to unseat Tester, even traveling to Montana four times during the season to campaign for Tester's opponent.  But despite that, Tester not only won the election but passed the 50% mark in votes for the first time in his career.  And 2020 was one of the highest turnouts the state has ever had for elections.

The real problem is that the majority of the people in Montana that vote for Tester do not receive or answer polls.  These are farmers, blue collar workers and people working multiple jobs to make ends meet.  They don't have time to answer polls.  So there is a huge undocumented portion of the Montana electorate who are very pro-Tester.  They like that he is a multi-generational native of Montana that owns and works his own farm.  He has values like they do.

Despite polling, I expect this one to be a toss-up and will see where the chips fall when election day comes, but I expect it to be very close and would not be at all surprised to see Tester emerge again as the victor.  But, I also won't be surprised to see Sheehy upset the incumbent either.[/quote]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/montana/rosendale-vs-tester

You are wrong. Tester was up in all of the polls in 2018. He won re-election in a midterm year in a massive blue wave election.

He is down significantly in all of the polls for this election. Harris is being blown out in Montana. There is no way he will be able to get a sufficient number of ticket splitters to win. IMO, he made a mistake being a patty line vote for Biden for the last four years. He should have tried to distinguish himself like Joe Manchin did. Republican voters in Montana have no reason to cast a ballot for him because he’s a party line Democrat. The article had his approval rating in the state in negative territory. [/quote]

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