Data Goldmine: YoY Enrollment Patterns by School

[Anonymous]

No one has been claiming that Brent families are recently attending Jefferson in large numbers. They have instead been claiming that some families at the other three Jefferson elementary school feeders are increasingly open to Jefferson.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one has been claiming that Brent families are recently attending Jefferson in large numbers. They have instead been claiming that some families at the other three Jefferson elementary school feeders are increasingly open to Jefferson.

This just isn't true. Folks absolutely have claimed that or tried to equate the Maury/EH & Brent/Jefferson numbers. This puts lie to that. And there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that Tyler kids are flocking there either. Did anyone doubt AB and VN kids were heading there? One of the oft discussed knocks on Jefferson is that it’s hard to get buy in from the Hill when it’s far away and awkwardly located. Obviously that doesn’t apply to AB or VN.

Also did Jefferson really get zero kids into Walls last year??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.

How did 34 Brent kids get into those two?!

[Anonymous]

Not quite. There is a fair amount of movemennt from DCPS and DC Charters to privates and parochial schools esp. for 7th grade onwards.

Anonymous wrote:BASIS kids who left after 8th grade went only to:
Coolidge
SWW
Duke Ellington

Latin kids who left after 8th went only to:
Washington Leadership Academy
SWW
Duke Ellington

So basically, kids who aren't leaving for performing arts go to SWW or they stay

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.

How did 34 Brent kids get into those two?!

Sibling preference or just luck. Cooper offered a lot of seats this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one has been claiming that Brent families are recently attending Jefferson in large numbers. They have instead been claiming that some families at the other three Jefferson elementary school feeders are increasingly open to Jefferson.

This just isn't true. Folks absolutely have claimed that or tried to equate the Maury/EH & Brent/Jefferson numbers. This puts lie to that. And there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that Tyler kids are flocking there either. Did anyone doubt AB and VN kids were heading there? One of the oft discussed knocks on Jefferson is that it’s hard to get buy in from the Hill when it’s far away and awkwardly located. Obviously that doesn’t apply to AB or VN.

Also did Jefferson really get zero kids into Walls last year??

There hasn’t been significant movement from Brent to Jefferson for the last 3-4 years. There hasn’t really been much discussion of it on DCUM either. I follow it closely. I think the pandemic derailed things a bit. At least it did for our family. We were pretty seriously considering Jefferson for our oldest, but we left DCPS during the pandemic and haven’t gone back. Distance learning was a misery, and there seemed to be some extreme post-pandemic behavioral issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Also did Jefferson really get zero kids into Walls last year??

If you look at the Jefferson data, it shows 1-9 kids to each of Walls, Banneker, McKinley, and Duke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one has been claiming that Brent families are recently attending Jefferson in large numbers. They have instead been claiming that some families at the other three Jefferson elementary school feeders are increasingly open to Jefferson.

This just isn't true. Folks absolutely have claimed that or tried to equate the Maury/EH & Brent/Jefferson numbers. This puts lie to that. And there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that Tyler kids are flocking there either. Did anyone doubt AB and VN kids were heading there? One of the oft discussed knocks on Jefferson is that it’s hard to get buy in from the Hill when it’s far away and awkwardly located. Obviously that doesn’t apply to AB or VN.

Also did Jefferson really get zero kids into Walls last year??

This data set wouldn't be able to tell you that. Understand how selective high school admissions works. Kids apply and interview for Walls, Banneker, McKinley, Ellington, etc.. Then they rank those schools in MySchoolDC, plus any other schools they are applying to. So, for example, if a kid at Jefferson qualifies for Walls but the kid ranks 1) Ellington 2) Walls, and they get into Ellington, they won't show up on this data as matching with Walls. Same if they ranked 1) Latin and 2) Walls-- if they had a good enough lottery number to get into Latin, they won't show up as matching with Walls. Even though if they had listed 1) Walls and 2) Latin, they would have matched with Walls and not Latin instead. There's really no way to know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.

Brent kids tend not to be mathematically inclined, and are not well prepared for a rigorous STEM-oriented middle school (yes, that's obviously a generalization, not every single student fits). And there are a whole bunch of kids with older siblings at Latin.

[Anonymous]

Can anyone break down where Latin 2nd Street pulls from?

[Anonymous]

No comment on the debates here, other than thanks to whoever posted this data! So so fun to play around with!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can anyone break down where Latin 2nd Street pulls from?

It's all over the map. Brent, Bancroft, Barnard, Brightwood, Burroughs, Eaton, Garrison, Janney, LaSalle-Backus, Lafayette, Langdon, Ludlow-Taylor, Mann, Marie Reed, Maury, Powell, Ross, SWS, Thomson, Tyler, Van Ness, Watkins, Breakthrough, Bridges, Center City, CMI, DCB, EL Haynes, Stokes, Friendship, ITS, LAMB, Lee, Two Rivers, YY.

[Anonymous]

Where are Banneker kids coming from? (I’m lazy.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wow, interesting that the folks who say Maury is increasingly sending kids to E-H appear to be right! 27 kids went from Maury to E-H last year?? Only 12 from Payne though, which is interesting...

S-H has decent buy-in from across its feeders, if still quite Watkins slanted (27 L-T, 29 JOW, 56 Watkins). That's definitely a foundation to grow from though.

Jefferson... all the people claiming Brent families were going there in any kind of numbers? Not even a little. Sub-10. Wow.

Impressive for EH. The principal is really making and effort and it is paying off. I think Payne’s 5th grade class is a lot smaller so that may be close to the same percentage.

Maury loses about 1/3 of 4th graders to charters or moving. But most of the remaining 5th graders go on to EH (although a chunk do move or go private for MS.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where are Banneker kids coming from? (I’m lazy.)

Tons of schools, it's literally all over the map. The bigger middle schools (Deal, Stuart-Hobson) tend to send more, but aside from that, no pattern stands out to me.