Data Goldmine: YoY Enrollment Patterns by School

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Bigger news to me would be the massive bleed of Basis kids in general. They enroll 150 at 5th I think? So 35 kids leave after the first year. By 9th grade only FIFTY kids are left? Yikes.


Those numbers are not new. The challenge is trying to assess the attrition without data from other schools. Because BASIS doesn't backfill, seats that empty are not replaced. Most other schools backfill so the numbers remain pretty constant. Latin, for instance, adds 15 kids in 9th and an average of 4 every year from 6th on up.

Before you and others with a hard on for BASIS chime in, this is a value neutral observation about data and NOT a discussion of whether they can or should backfill. It is a logical, data driven response to PP who is looking at a number that cannot be measured against other schools because other schools don't publish the number of kids who started in 5th/entry year.


Well, it seems that BASIS high school does lose less than 10 kids per year, it's just that they were all to schools outside the public DC system. That kind of surprises me, I would have expected a few to JR now and then. If a school has 59 9th graders and only 50 stay for 10th, that's not super wow. If a school has 51 9th graders and 50 stay for 10th, that's good.

I think people's argument about BASIS isn't that the students who attend it are miserable and they leave. It's that BASIS isn't anywhere near as good as its boosters would like others to think, and that it doesn't do a fair share of the more difficult work of the school system.


So, to summarize, BASIS parents are often defending BASIS and trying to explain that, notwithstanding the DCUM haters, BASIS families are often times quite happy and kids choose to remain for HS and are happy to have done so. Someone shows you data that says kids don't leave the HS for other charter or DCPS schools (as in zero) and your conclusion is that BASIS isn;t as good for those families (none of whom leave) as they say it is?

Also, BASIS families don't give a dam if you think BASIS does "its fair share". We're trying to get our kids educated. And, with all due respect, if you are IB for JR I don't really have patience for your commentary about what BASIS isn't doing.


Typical BASIS booster anger and aggression. I do care about all the kids in the city, and the functioning of the system as a whole, and if you don't, well, that's between you and your conscience.

I believe that BASIS isn't that great a school. I believe that it's so-called "success" is the result of its demographics rather than of excellent teaching or whatever else. I believe that if you took a matching slice of JR students (those who have attended a well-performing school starting in 5th grade and who were on grade level almost every year since), it would look no worse than BASIS does. I am not IB for JR, rather I'm a parent who researched BASIS for my kid and decided not to apply at all.

I also believe that parents often stay at schools that aren't that great, or aren't that good a fit, for lack of a better option and because it's hard to move teenagers away from their friends. Like any other school in the city, some of its families are more satisfied than others, and I don't assume retention indicates actual satisfaction.


I honestly feel sorry for you. This is a school you have never attended, have no first hand experience with and one you claim you didn't even want to attend, and yet you frequent DCUM to lecture parents who have kids at the school that the school their kids are at is not great? Because your research tells you more about what is a good school for their kids than their personal experience? Really? Wow.


If you only listen to people who actually enrolled, you won't get the whole picture. I did my research, I spoke with friends who were kind enough to be candid with me, and I decided it isn't that impressive. My best wishes to you and your child at BASIS!
Anonymous
BASIS just sent out a bunch of offers today, I'm told:
https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/60/1123848.page
Anonymous
So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Wow, interesting that the folks who say Maury is increasingly sending kids to E-H appear to be right! 27 kids went from Maury to E-H last year?? Only 12 from Payne though, which is interesting...

S-H has decent buy-in from across its feeders, if still quite Watkins slanted (27 L-T, 29 JOW, 56 Watkins). That's definitely a foundation to grow from though.

Jefferson... all the people claiming Brent families were going there in any kind of numbers? Not even a little. Sub-10. Wow.


Brent's 5th grade isn't very big. If they sent 9 5th graders to Jefferson, that would be about 25% of the class. I'm not saying that's happening, but it's a small school.


Brent (431) is basically the same size as L-T (440) & JOW (420). Brent's 5th grade is small b/c students leave in 4th (just like L-T/JOW), but then even those who remain in 5th don't head to Jefferson in any real numbers... and that is more comparatively unusual.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


I don't work for OSSE or the city government but I think the bolded is unfair and incorrect. If the idea was to hide access to data they wouldn't have published this. The N<10 is the policy for almost all DC school data in order to ensure they don't run afoul of educational privacy laws.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


I don't work for OSSE or the city government but I think the bolded is unfair and incorrect. If the idea was to hide access to data they wouldn't have published this. The N<10 is the policy for almost all DC school data in order to ensure they don't run afoul of educational privacy laws.


We're saying the same thing. They limit the detail because they don't want to show the detail. For people's privacy. It's on purpose.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


I don't work for OSSE or the city government but I think the bolded is unfair and incorrect. If the idea was to hide access to data they wouldn't have published this. The N<10 is the policy for almost all DC school data in order to ensure they don't run afoul of educational privacy laws.


We're saying the same thing. They limit the detail because they don't want to show the detail. For people's privacy. It's on purpose.


My bad. I misunderstood. I thought you were ascribing some nefarious intent to the N<10 data. I'm so used to the tin hat brigade around here that I read into it.

Apologies again.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


I don't work for OSSE or the city government but I think the bolded is unfair and incorrect. If the idea was to hide access to data they wouldn't have published this. The N<10 is the policy for almost all DC school data in order to ensure they don't run afoul of educational privacy laws.


We're saying the same thing. They limit the detail because they don't want to show the detail. For people's privacy. It's on purpose.


My bad. I misunderstood. I thought you were ascribing some nefarious intent to the N<10 data. I'm so used to the tin hat brigade around here that I read into it.

Apologies again.


No worries, happens to everyone. If they would take it down to n<8 it would probably be a lot more enlightening with no signficant loss of privacy. Oh well.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Not a single person from CMI got into Walls?


No one from Elliot-Hine or Jefferson either?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Not a single person from CMI got into Walls?


No one from Elliot-Hine or Jefferson either?


That is surprising. Of course, you never know how many kids applied and whether they ranked it first.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.


I don't work for OSSE or the city government but I think the bolded is unfair and incorrect. If the idea was to hide access to data they wouldn't have published this. The N<10 is the policy for almost all DC school data in order to ensure they don't run afoul of educational privacy laws.


Both campuses appear to lose quite a number of students YoY beginning in 3rd grade. That's an earlier trend than other charters and a year earlier than decline due to Latin/Basis.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:No student left BASIS for another DCPS or Charter school from 9th grade forward

Latin lost kid(s) (who stayed in DCPS/charter) to:
Coolidge (after 9th)
LAYC Career Academy (after 10th and 11th)
Ballou STAY (after 11th)
Luke C Moore (after 11th)

SWW lost kid(s) (who stayed in DCPS/charter) to:
JR (after 9th, 10th and 11th)
Latin (after 11th)

Seems like the handwringing on DCUM is a lot of noise, but the actual data says that kids who attend these schools are content.


Huh? When I select BASIS and grades 9-12, I see at least one leaving for Coolidge, and some to Walls and Ellington.

BASIS high school retained student count:
8th into 9th: 78
9th into 10th: 50
10th into 11th: 63 (must have been a bigger cohort?)
11th into 12th: 42

That doesn't really spell satisfaction in my view.


Maybe double check your work my friend? You are sorting backwards, not forwards. The kids who left for Coolidge, Walls and Ellington did so after 8th. You also fundamentally misunderstand snapshot data; you can't look at numbers from different grades in the same year and conclude enrollment drops since those kids are only in one grade in 22-23.

Ironically, you just made my point for me. People like you with strong beliefs and big mouths draw conclusions that don't comport with facts. Even with the actual data in hand you still screw it up.


I do understand those things, I thought that when you said "from 9th grade forward" you meant to include the 8th-into-9th group. But it seems you did not.

I also do understand that BASIS cohorts are of varying sizes and that this is not retention data. That is why I added the parenthetical about cohort size. Even so, this is not a resounding endorsement of BASIS.


100% of kids who start 9th stay (or move out of the district schools). You would prefer higher retention?


It doesn't really matter to me whether they're leaving for schools in the district or in another state. We don't know how many kids are in that N<10 category, and since BASIS high school isn't that big a school, if they're losing 9 kids a year they have a problem. If it's just 1 kid a year, fine.

If you look at BASIS middle school retention, there data set is bigger. Kids rising from BASIS 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th leave for DCI, Deal, Stuart-Hobson, Jefferson, Truth, Latin, Washington Global, CHML, Eliot-Hine, Sousa, Digital Pioneers, and Two Rivers. I suppose BASIS advocates would say that offloading low performers is what makes BASIS so great for the remaining kids. But we don't know from this data whether these kids left due to BASIS' wonderful "rigor", or whether they left because BASIS isn't really that great.


Since the schools you listed all have less rigor (in some cases significantly so) than BASIS, I guess they left because it was too hard or (to use your words) they were "low performers."
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.




Both campuses appear to lose quite a number of students YoY beginning in 3rd grade. That's an earlier trend than other charters and a year earlier than decline due to Latin/Basis.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:So, the N<10 thing is annoying because it masks a lot of detail, and so many schools are small enough that 9 kids is a significant portion of a class. But I guess limiting detail is the point.

I filtered for Ns of 10 and up, and here's what I noticed.

Bancroft sent 21 kids to CHEC from 5th.
Brent sent 24 kids to Latin (both combined) and only 10 to BASIS.
Lots of people leave Deal and Hardy for "Not in audit", and not just after 8th.
10 kids left Stokes EE PK4 for "Not in audit"-- wow that's a lot of attrition from one grade level with only two classes. Ditto Garrison.
LAMB sent 18 5th graders to DCI, seems like that's not a whole lot but I guess they had a small class.
Truesdell sent 28 kids to Paul after 5th.
Two Rivers middle isn't capturing a big slice of the 5th grade class at either campus-- like 70%.
Almost all YY 5th graders go to DCI.
17 out of 79 Watkins kids went to BASIS.




The n<10 makes it hard to make any conclusions about Basis, other than that not many leave, especially later on.

In fact, Basis told us that n<5 for 8th graders last year. If that is accurate, only 4 went to Walls, Duke, or Coolidge.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:No student left BASIS for another DCPS or Charter school from 9th grade forward

Latin lost kid(s) (who stayed in DCPS/charter) to:
Coolidge (after 9th)
LAYC Career Academy (after 10th and 11th)
Ballou STAY (after 11th)
Luke C Moore (after 11th)

SWW lost kid(s) (who stayed in DCPS/charter) to:
JR (after 9th, 10th and 11th)
Latin (after 11th)

Seems like the handwringing on DCUM is a lot of noise, but the actual data says that kids who attend these schools are content.


Huh? When I select BASIS and grades 9-12, I see at least one leaving for Coolidge, and some to Walls and Ellington.

BASIS high school retained student count:
8th into 9th: 78
9th into 10th: 50
10th into 11th: 63 (must have been a bigger cohort?)
11th into 12th: 42

That doesn't really spell satisfaction in my view.


They don't backfill and a lot of this is natural attrition.
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