Data Goldmine: YoY Enrollment Patterns by School

[Anonymous]

It was Togo.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for posting the link OP. Too bad this devolved into a BASIS thread!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for posting the link OP. Too bad this devolved into a BASIS thread!

YW. I thought the data was really interesting and provided insights that in some cases proved common wisdom but in others made it clear (as expected) DCUM lives in its own delusional bubble.

[Anonymous]

So many people spouting off without even looking at the data. You want to know how many people pick their IB MS? You can see how many 4th graders stay for 5th and then go on to middle vs how many leave. This isn't rocket science.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That was Balto. This data indicates that SOME families in CH appear to be choosing SH/EH/Jefferson over Basis. It further shows that very roughly half of the DCPS elementary school students at schools other than SWS or Brent appear to be staying and going to the assigned in-bound middle school feeder. If you have a younger elementary school student, that is extremely interesting. It cuts against the DCUM mantra (which a lot of people in the neighborhood have bought into) that the only acceptable middle school options are Latin, Basis, maybe but not really SH, or moving to NW/suburbs. Basis is a good school that lots of people will continue to prefer. It is all factors considered not for everyone.

Where does it show this? All it shows is 4th graders going into 5th grade, and then going into the IB middle. It doesn't tell you how many neighborhood kids are actually in the school in 4th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That was Balto. This data indicates that SOME families in CH appear to be choosing SH/EH/Jefferson over Basis. It further shows that very roughly half of the DCPS elementary school students at schools other than SWS or Brent appear to be staying and going to the assigned in-bound middle school feeder. If you have a younger elementary school student, that is extremely interesting. It cuts against the DCUM mantra (which a lot of people in the neighborhood have bought into) that the only acceptable middle school options are Latin, Basis, maybe but not really SH, or moving to NW/suburbs. Basis is a good school that lots of people will continue to prefer. It is all factors considered not for everyone.

Where does it show this? All it shows is 4th graders going into 5th grade, and then going into the IB middle. It doesn't tell you how many neighborhood kids are actually in the school in 4th grade.

Neighborhood vs kids from outside the neighborhood

[Anonymous]

You can estimate the overall class size by looking at each school individually

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You can estimate the overall class size by looking at each school individually

Yes, but you can't tell how many kids in the 4th grade are local to the neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That was Balto. This data indicates that SOME families in CH appear to be choosing SH/EH/Jefferson over Basis. It further shows that very roughly half of the DCPS elementary school students at schools other than SWS or Brent appear to be staying and going to the assigned in-bound middle school feeder. If you have a younger elementary school student, that is extremely interesting. It cuts against the DCUM mantra (which a lot of people in the neighborhood have bought into) that the only acceptable middle school options are Latin, Basis, maybe but not really SH, or moving to NW/suburbs. Basis is a good school that lots of people will continue to prefer. It is all factors considered not for everyone.

Where does it show this? All it shows is 4th graders going into 5th grade, and then going into the IB middle. It doesn't tell you how many neighborhood kids are actually in the school in 4th grade.

There's a different place you can see how many in-boundary kids are attending which school.

And of course, to be a "neighborhood kid" isn't the same thing as living in the school's boundary, especially with the Hill's freakish gerrymandering. If the idea is to go to school with kids who live nearby, maybe kids you already know, they don't have to have gone to the same elementary.

[Anonymous]

To some degree: If a sizable cohort is moving together from a single elementary school to the feeder (which is at least at some schools true), the "non-neighborhood kids" are also familiar faces staying in the feeder pattern. The "non-neighborhood kids" can also lottery to Basis etc. the same as everyone else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You can estimate the overall class size by looking at each school individually

Yes, but you can't tell how many kids in the 4th grade are local to the neighborhood.

OSSE publishes attendance by assigned boundary. Which has been explained several times in this thread. I love how many of you have opinions without bothering to read and look at available data.

[Anonymous]

I took a quick look through the spreadsheet to identify schools with poor retention. I only looked at charter elementaries just to get the data set down to a manageable size. Since most schools send n<10 students to any single other school, I'm using the number of different destination schools as a proxy for attrition.

Something's not quite right in Breakthrough's data, the number of kids staying at the school in the upper grades is "*" for K and 1st. Dunno what that means.

Tons of outflow from Eagle Academy and Ingenuity Prep.

Center City schools seem to have few kids and a lot of departures. Same for Harmony and Hope Community Tolson, and I Dream-- sometimes the number of kids *staying* at the school is n<10. Bethune also isn't doing great there.

Lots of attrition from CMI, to all over the city. Ditto DC Prep. Some KIPP schools have a lot of outflow but I don't have a good handle on their grade arrangements across schools.

Lee is retaining better than I thought, or else their outflow is clustered in a few schools. SSMA is not doing great, but we knew that.

Rocketship has a lot of attrition, especially Rise.

Two Rivers 4th's retention into 5th and 6th grade is better than I was expecting. It's hard to tell, there don't seem to be a lot of destination schools for Two Rivers but I have to assume it's more than n=1 to each. TRY is retaining better than I thought.

For DCPS, I'd highlight Savoy, Turner, Langdon, Langley, Noyes, Wheatley, JOW, Miner, Watkins, Barnard, Height, Truesdell, Aiton, and Nalle.

[Anonymous]

There are so few N>10s, I can filter and sort the spreadsheets just for them. It seems like a major category is kids going to a middle or high school *other than* their designated feeder, and kids going to selective high schools. Kids from AppleTree going off for Kindergarten nearby sometimes has groups of more than 10. Moves within KIPP, Friendship, and DC Prep happen, I assume according to the school's grade aned feeder arrangements. So that didn't produce any surprises that I can see.

[Anonymous]

The data would be more helpful but maybe a privacy issue or something if it gave actual numbers from 1-10. That said, the instances where 10+ kids from one elementary school or boundary go to one destination are meaningful.
To the earlier poster, Maury is heavily in bound at all grade levels and sending a full class of kids to EH. Ludlow is heavily inbound at all grade levels and sending a full class of kids to SH. Van Ness is socioeconomically diverse but also heavily inbound at all grade levels and sending a full class of kids to Jefferson. Some of the other feeders are more heavily OOB in upper grades and/or not presently enrolling in large numbers at the feeder middle school. Is it different than 5-10 years ago? I think so yes.