2022 Senate Map
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Anonymous
Anonymous
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Not at all surprising. He looked good to Republicans because he's a Trumpite and he's popular as a football star. He handily won the Republican primary and he still is favored by about 93% of registered Republicans. But Georgia is balanced by the two parties 41% for both Republicans and Democrats. The 18% of Independents are currently voting 2/3 for Warnock and 1/3 for Walker. The problem is that if you put Walker in front of a microphone you realize that the man's not all there. Like many retired football stars, he probably has concussive damage to his brain from too many high contact hits. He is not fully coherent at the best of times and he is frequently not in the best of times.
So the more he has to actually campaign to people who are not die hard Trumpites, the lower his ratings will go. Warnock has 97% of the Democratic vote to go with his 66% of the Independent vote. And barring something Earth shattering, Walker doesn't have the appeal to change the numbers. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
| Rasmussen and other R-leaning polls are cooking the Likely Voter models as if this is 2010 with angry Republicans voting in big numbers while Democrats stay home. The Registered Voter poll numbers all favor Democrats. The Supreme Court blew up the Midterm Likely Voters models. |
Anonymous
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3550024-tim-ryan-announces-9-1-million-haul-in-ohio-senate-race/amp/
Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s (Ohio) Senate campaign announced on Friday it raked in a whopping $9.1 million during the second quarter of the year. Ryan’s second-quarter haul is more than double the size of his $4.1 million first-quarter fundraising haul. The campaign said Ryan brought in nearly 90,000 new donors during the second quarter, with contributions averaging $37.49 per donor. Additionally, the campaign said that 97 percent of donations were $100 or less. The Democrat’s latest fundraising haul appears to demonstrate his grassroots fundraising strength ahead of what is expected to be a tough battle against Republican nominee J.D. Vance, who has not yet released his second-quarter fundraising figures. |
Anonymous
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One of the Few Potential Bright Spots for Democrats in 2022: The Senate
Democrats hope to portray Republican Senate candidates in some of the most competitive midterm races as too far outside the mainstream. For now, it seems to be working. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/05/us/politics/one-of-the-few-potential-bright-spots-for-democrats-in-2022-the-senate.amp.html |
Anonymous
The dog that caught the car. 🚗 |
Anonymous
Dems are also taking the lead in "generic candidate" polling for the House as well. What's notable there is that normally in a mid term that favors the party opposite that of who controls the White House which means this is bad for Republicans. The Republicans do still have significant advantages for House elections, particularly the godawful gerrymandering and other things they've done to give themselves an edge. |