2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Think Georgia still leans Republican, maybe plus 2-3 if candidates are similarly liked. Lucky Republicans keep running possibly the worst candidates possible.

It’s tough that both Florida and Ohio are now safe Republican states. Makes the Dem path very narrow. None of the closer states that many thought would swing (NC, TX) seem to be moving at all. At least Arizona is now a 50/50 state.

Ohio has a Dem Senator and Tim Ryan came awfully close. I don't see why Ohio has to be seen so differently from Pennsylvania - get the right candidate at the right moment, against the right candidate, and Dems could come back.

Tim Ryan was an exemplary candidate.

He was, and JD Vance was bad. Just because there were worse Trump Senate endorsees does not mean Vance wasn’t bad.

Sherrod Brown has to defend his seat in 2024. And the House is talking about putting Tim Ryan in charge of the DCCC instead of it being a sitting member. He really did run a great campaign.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Think Georgia still leans Republican, maybe plus 2-3 if candidates are similarly liked. Lucky Republicans keep running possibly the worst candidates possible.

It’s tough that both Florida and Ohio are now safe Republican states. Makes the Dem path very narrow. None of the closer states that many thought would swing (NC, TX) seem to be moving at all. At least Arizona is now a 50/50 state.

Ohio has a Dem Senator and Tim Ryan came awfully close. I don't see why Ohio has to be seen so differently from Pennsylvania - get the right candidate at the right moment, against the right candidate, and Dems could come back.

^ And, just, as the DCUM obsessed Floridian - don't count Florida out yet, either.

Then they need to get their sh-- together on any number of fronts in those states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:if Warnock had to fight this hard, Ossoff is almost guaranteed to get booted out in 2026.

Demographics in GA in 2026 will be VERY different.

+1 All those Atlanta suburbs were Republican AF years ago.

More articulately:

Cobb County is also crazy. Cobb and Gwinnett have about 1.75 million people between the two of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:if Warnock had to fight this hard, Ossoff is almost guaranteed to get booted out in 2026.

Demographics in GA in 2026 will be VERY different.

+1 All those Atlanta suburbs were Republican AF years ago.

More articulately:

Cobb County is also crazy. Cobb and Gwinnett have about 1.75 million people between the two of them.

Kemp lost Cobb by 5 points. They're less blue than the Warnock vote indicates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:if Warnock had to fight this hard, Ossoff is almost guaranteed to get booted out in 2026.

Demographics in GA in 2026 will be VERY different.

+1 All those Atlanta suburbs were Republican AF years ago.

More articulately:

Cobb County is also crazy. Cobb and Gwinnett have about 1.75 million people between the two of them.

Kemp lost Cobb by 5 points. They're less blue than the Warnock vote indicates.

Yes, as they say, candidate quality matters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:if Warnock had to fight this hard, Ossoff is almost guaranteed to get booted out in 2026.

Demographics in GA in 2026 will be VERY different.

+1 All those Atlanta suburbs were Republican AF years ago.

More articulately:

Cobb County is also crazy. Cobb and Gwinnett have about 1.75 million people between the two of them.

Kemp lost Cobb by 5 points. They're less blue than the Warnock vote indicates.

You're proving the point that in red leaning counties that are highly educated, not many voters have the patience for a total garbage human just because they're on the R ticket. NP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Warnock seems to be running a couple percentage points higher everywhere than when he ended up a point ahead in November.

PP here and yeah, that’s exactly what happened.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Think Georgia still leans Republican, maybe plus 2-3 if candidates are similarly liked. Lucky Republicans keep running possibly the worst candidates possible.

It’s tough that both Florida and Ohio are now safe Republican states. Makes the Dem path very narrow. None of the closer states that many thought would swing (NC, TX) seem to be moving at all. At least Arizona is now a 50/50 state.

Ohio has a Dem Senator and Tim Ryan came awfully close. I don't see why Ohio has to be seen so differently from Pennsylvania - get the right candidate at the right moment, against the right candidate, and Dems could come back.

^ And, just, as the DCUM obsessed Floridian - don't count Florida out yet, either.

Then they need to get their sh-- together on any number of fronts in those states.

I am PP and you don't have to tell me. We are a disgrace here. I just don't think you can totally write us off yet. But yeah, very much yeah, we need to get our sh** together here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Think Georgia still leans Republican, maybe plus 2-3 if candidates are similarly liked. Lucky Republicans keep running possibly the worst candidates possible.

It’s tough that both Florida and Ohio are now safe Republican states. Makes the Dem path very narrow. None of the closer states that many thought would swing (NC, TX) seem to be moving at all. At least Arizona is now a 50/50 state.

Ohio has a Dem Senator and Tim Ryan came awfully close. I don't see why Ohio has to be seen so differently from Pennsylvania - get the right candidate at the right moment, against the right candidate, and Dems could come back.

Tim Ryan was an excellent candidate, and Vance was terrible (not walker terrible but pretty bad), and Vance won by over 6%. Ohio is lost for many years. Hopefully Brown can keep winning with the power of incumbency at least one more time. Pennsylvania is a clear Dem lean state where Dems are +2-3 when candidate quality is similar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:if Warnock had to fight this hard, Ossoff is almost guaranteed to get booted out in 2026.

Demographics in GA in 2026 will be VERY different.

+1 All those Atlanta suburbs were Republican AF years ago.

More articulately:

Cobb County is also crazy. Cobb and Gwinnett have about 1.75 million people between the two of them.

Kemp lost Cobb by 5 points. They're less blue than the Warnock vote indicates.

You're proving the point that in red leaning counties that are highly educated, not many voters have the patience for a total garbage human just because they're on the R ticket. NP

True. Plus I think people are a lot more ideologically flexible when voting for governors. Kemp can’t pass a national abortion ban. Walker can.

[Anonymous]

So GA has re-elected an actual Warlock to have a razor thing majority in the Senate. His commercials featured him saying he is a pastor serving in the Senate. So much for the separation of church and state the LWNJs all call for.

So thankful for the House majority to put the breaks on this crazy Biden train.

You didn’t want someone who jokingly referred to a belief in vampires and werewolves and yet elected someone who believes in an invisible man in the sky.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So GA has re-elected an actual Warlock to have a razor thing majority in the Senate. His commercials featured him saying he is a pastor serving in the Senate. So much for the separation of church and state the LWNJs all call for.

So thankful for the House majority to put the breaks on this crazy Biden train.

You didn’t want someone who jokingly referred to a belief in vampires and werewolves and yet elected someone who believes in an invisible man in the sky.

Go back to bed. You're still drunk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So GA has re-elected an actual Warlock to have a razor thing majority in the Senate. His commercials featured him saying he is a pastor serving in the Senate. So much for the separation of church and state the LWNJs all call for.

So thankful for the House majority to put the breaks on this crazy Biden train.

You didn’t want someone who jokingly referred to a belief in vampires and werewolves and yet elected someone who believes in an invisible man in the sky.

Go back to bed. You're still drunk.

+1. Or something

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So GA has re-elected an actual Warlock to have a razor thing majority in the Senate. His commercials featured him saying he is a pastor serving in the Senate. So much for the separation of church and state the LWNJs all call for.

So thankful for the House majority to put the breaks on this crazy Biden train.

You didn’t want someone who jokingly referred to a belief in vampires and werewolves and yet elected someone who believes in an invisible man in the sky.

Atheist here. Yes, Warnock is a man of faith just like Biden. But both of them set aside their personal religious beliefs when performing their taxpayer-funded duties. I'd much prefer that to a guy who holds up a bible as a prop in his photo op but can't be bothered to actually read said bible.

And believe it or not, I was against Walker even before the werewolf comment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Think Georgia still leans Republican, maybe plus 2-3 if candidates are similarly liked. Lucky Republicans keep running possibly the worst candidates possible.

It’s tough that both Florida and Ohio are now safe Republican states. Makes the Dem path very narrow. None of the closer states that many thought would swing (NC, TX) seem to be moving at all. At least Arizona is now a 50/50 state.

Ohio has a Dem Senator and Tim Ryan came awfully close. I don't see why Ohio has to be seen so differently from Pennsylvania - get the right candidate at the right moment, against the right candidate, and Dems could come back.

Tim Ryan was an excellent candidate, and Vance was terrible (not walker terrible but pretty bad), and Vance won by over 6%. Ohio is lost for many years. Hopefully Brown can keep winning with the power of incumbency at least one more time. Pennsylvania is a clear Dem lean state where Dems are +2-3 when candidate quality is similar.

I am the PP and I think Tim Ryan ran a great campaign against a total turd of a candidate - and you're right, he still lost by a significant margin. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist - I just can't help but think, esp what we saw in PA with Fetterman, that it's not totally lost. Maybe you're right, tho.