Boundary Review Meetings

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

I'm saying the size of current grades 5 and 6 is absolutely smaller due to covid. Current 6th graders were subjected to virtual kindergarten, which was a disaster, and many went private instead. The next year started virtually so many of those students also went private. During those covid years the US population growth rate cratered, but started going back up in 2022 and has increased ever since. Do we plan based on covid numbers like this person posting ~25 student drops in elementary school totals? Or do we plan based on decades of population growth trends absent a cataclysmic pandemic?

When you have consistent 25 student dropoffs at most elementary schools, that’s the 3000-4000 lower enrollment that Reid was talking about. She’s trying to claim it’s all families afraid of ICE activity. It clearly is not. It’s happening even at schools that should have low ICE involvement just based on their overall demographics.

We aren’t continuing on the path of population growth. The years of highest birth rates have already passed. Those kids born in the highest birth rate years (2006-2008) have largely graduated from high school now. They are being replaced by fewer and fewer children who were born in the 2020s. This is all easily verifiable. It should concern you that FCPS is going to continue asking for the same if not larger amounts of money while educating fewer and fewer children.

DP. If the number of kids in FCPS is declining any requests for budget increases should absolutely be scrutinized. But I doubt there will ever be a completely linear relationship between enrollment and the operating budget, given the other factors at play.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

Some of these schools may be AAP centers. Some may have preK special ed. etc. It's really hard to compare.

Yes, they all have different programming, but seemingly the numbers are falling at most elementaries across different pyramids and different demographics. That means it’s not “fear of ICE raids.” It’s a deeper demographic issue.

In 4 short years when the current 9th graders (which happens to be a larger group relative to the other grades) have graduated - there will be an additional fall-off in total enrollment.

Weird that enrollment drops as they started messing with school boundaries. Who could’ve ever guessed?

Correlation =/= Causation

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

wrong grade. current 4th is 2015/2016 kids. current 5th started K in covid

It's the right grade. Current 4th has kids who would be in 5th but were held back a year. At our ES, there are almost twice as many 4th graders as 5th graders (and 4th grade overall is ~50% larger than any other grade).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

wrong grade. current 4th is 2015/2016 kids. current 5th started K in covid

It's the right grade. Current 4th has kids who would be in 5th but were held back a year. At our ES, there are almost twice as many 4th graders as 5th graders (and 4th grade overall is ~50% larger than any other grade).

At my kid’s school, 3rd is huge, 4th is average, 5th is tiny. I think kids were also held back from 4th into 3rd since people weren’t sure how much that K year (the first year they were open full time with masks) would be affected by Covid policies.

At any rate, it just represents a movement of kids from one grade to another. There weren’t actually many more kids born in 2015-2016 (current 4th) or 2016-2017 (current 3rd) than there were in 2014-2015 (current 5th).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

I'm saying the size of current grades 5 and 6 is absolutely smaller due to covid. Current 6th graders were subjected to virtual kindergarten, which was a disaster, and many went private instead. The next year started virtually so many of those students also went private. During those covid years the US population growth rate cratered, but started going back up in 2022 and has increased ever since. Do we plan based on covid numbers like this person posting ~25 student drops in elementary school totals? Or do we plan based on decades of population growth trends absent a cataclysmic pandemic?

When you have consistent 25 student dropoffs at most elementary schools, that’s the 3000-4000 lower enrollment that Reid was talking about. She’s trying to claim it’s all families afraid of ICE activity. It clearly is not. It’s happening even at schools that should have low ICE involvement just based on their overall demographics.

We aren’t continuing on the path of population growth. The years of highest birth rates have already passed. Those kids born in the highest birth rate years (2006-2008) have largely graduated from high school now. They are being replaced by fewer and fewer children who were born in the 2020s. This is all easily verifiable. It should concern you that FCPS is going to continue asking for the same if not larger amounts of money while educating fewer and fewer children.

Experts still project overall population growth for Fairfax County. Urbanization is still a long-term trend. UVA updated their numbers in July and are projected FFX County total population to be pretty flat until 2030, then increasing about 0.3-0.4% per year through 2050. So increased population, lower birth rates, and TBD on public school enrollment rates; the latter were down during pandemic and aftermath but are slowly creeping back upwards. There's probably other factors but those seem like the big 3 indicators and they aren't all pointing in the same direction, so likely won't see any large movements in student enrollments one way or the other unless there's another shock to the system. Nationwide birth rates are back up slightly past two years (12 per 1000 people) which is highest since 2016, but still lower than anytime before that. Possible we've seen the nadir on that metric though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

wrong grade. current 4th is 2015/2016 kids. current 5th started K in covid

It's the right grade. Current 4th has kids who would be in 5th but were held back a year. At our ES, there are almost twice as many 4th graders as 5th graders (and 4th grade overall is ~50% larger than any other grade).

At my kid’s school, 3rd is huge, 4th is average, 5th is tiny. I think kids were also held back from 4th into 3rd since people weren’t sure how much that K year (the first year they were open full time with masks) would be affected by Covid policies.

At any rate, it just represents a movement of kids from one grade to another. There weren’t actually many more kids born in 2015-2016 (current 4th) or 2016-2017 (current 3rd) than there were in 2014-2015 (current 5th).

our school is the opposite. tiny 3rd. maybe 20 kids per class. 4th is average and 5th is huge. 32+ in each class

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

wrong grade. current 4th is 2015/2016 kids. current 5th started K in covid

It's the right grade. Current 4th has kids who would be in 5th but were held back a year. At our ES, there are almost twice as many 4th graders as 5th graders (and 4th grade overall is ~50% larger than any other grade).

Same. My 4th grader's grade is much larger than the 5th grade, too, and we know several kids who are almost a year and a half older than my September 2016 child!

[Anonymous]

High School Enrollment Change - September 2025, September 2024, Delta

Annandale, 1991, 2126 = -135
Centreville, 2187, 2319 = -132
Chantilly, 2904, 2916 = -12
Edison, 2207, 2282 = -75
Fairfax, 2391, 2379 = +12
Falls Church, 1997, 2137 = -140
Hayfield, 2134, 2277 = -143
Herndon, 2074, 2230 = -156 (largest decline)
Jefferson, 2125, 2111 = +14
Justice, 2192, 2317 = -125
Lake Braddock, 2907, 2950 = -43
Langley, 2185, 2174 = +11
Lewis, 1539, 1632 = -93
Madison, 2103, 2081 = +22
Marshall, 2185, 2194 = -9
McLean, 2353, 2411 = -58
Mount Vernon, 1755, 1839 = -84
Oakton, 2711, 2601 = +110 (largest increase)
Robinson, 2540, 2484 = +56
South County, 2036, 2091 = -55
South Lakes, 2413, 2410 = +3
West Potomac, 2591, 2660 = -69
West Springfield, 2841, 2791 = +50
Westfield, 2747, 2710 = +37
Woodson, 2482, 2418 = +64

Total 58574, 59656 = -1082

The expansions of West Potomac and Herndon look worse and worse. The entire southeast section of the county (Lewis, Hayfield, Edison, Mount Vernon, West Potomac, South County, and Annandale) lost a significant number of students.

All of the poorer high schools saw a decline in enrollment.

At the elementary level, three FCPS school operate with less than 300 students (Sherman, Garfield, and Little Run). Coates and Spring Hill operate with more than 1000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:High School Enrollment Change - September 2025, September 2024, Delta

Annandale, 1991, 2126 = -135
Centreville, 2187, 2319 = -132
Chantilly, 2904, 2916 = -12
Edison, 2207, 2282 = -75
Fairfax, 2391, 2379 = +12
Falls Church, 1997, 2137 = -140
Hayfield, 2134, 2277 = -143
Herndon, 2074, 2230 = -156 (largest decline)
Jefferson, 2125, 2111 = +14
Justice, 2192, 2317 = -125
Lake Braddock, 2907, 2950 = -43
Langley, 2185, 2174 = +11
Lewis, 1539, 1632 = -93
Madison, 2103, 2081 = +22
Marshall, 2185, 2194 = -9
McLean, 2353, 2411 = -58
Mount Vernon, 1755, 1839 = -84
Oakton, 2711, 2601 = +110 (largest increase)
Robinson, 2540, 2484 = +56
South County, 2036, 2091 = -55
South Lakes, 2413, 2410 = +3
West Potomac, 2591, 2660 = -69
West Springfield, 2841, 2791 = +50
Westfield, 2747, 2710 = +37
Woodson, 2482, 2418 = +64

Total 58574, 59656 = -1082

The expansions of West Potomac and Herndon look worse and worse. The entire southeast section of the county (Lewis, Hayfield, Edison, Mount Vernon, West Potomac, South County, and Annandale) lost a significant number of students.

All of the poorer high schools saw a decline in enrollment.

At the elementary level, three FCPS school operate with less than 300 students (Sherman, Garfield, and Little Run). Coates and Spring Hill operate with more than 1000.

Interesting. Thanks for compiling this.

Insofar as Langley and McLean are concerned, this fall is the first year that the boundary changes adopted back in 2021 have been fully phased in.

Sherman's enrollment declined after the boundary changes adopted in 2023 that reassigned some Kent Gardens kids to Sherman but also Sherman kids to Churchill Road and Chesterbrook. Families were giving generous options to either transfer or stay put, and I don't think they realized how many families would opt for elementary schools with earlier start times. An earlier Thru Consulting proposal would have bolstered Sherman's enrollment by moving most of the McLean-zoned kids at Westgate (the rest of Westgate feeds to Marshall) to Sherman, but some of those kids live next door to Westgate so the proposal was criticized by BRAC members and likely won't be included in the maps released tomorrow.

[Anonymous]

Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

[Anonymous]

So do we have a guess when the tool updates today - “evening” I assume means after 5?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So do we have a guess when the tool updates today - “evening” I assume means after 5?

Of course. Because if the release them after 5 maybe no one will see them.