Boundary Review Meetings

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

[Anonymous]

How can we have new maps tomorrow not including new high school but that high school will open next year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How can we have new maps tomorrow not including new high school but that high school will open next year?

They didn't want to slow down the county-wide boundary change train to factor in the new HS yet, but the wheels on that train are very rickety.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

[Anonymous]

I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Membership numbers for September have been posted.

Will Thru adjust its proposals to reflect the latest numbers, or shouldn't it do so? If not, they should go ahead and release the revised maps now and not wait until Friday evening.

They really should take the new numbers into consideration. Lewis is now down to 1540 total. Taxpayers should not be funding any new additions until all capacity in the county is taken advantage of.

That is an easy solution.

Get rid of IB everywhere and make alewis the diatrict IB magnet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

Some of these schools may be AAP centers. Some may have preK special ed. etc. It's really hard to compare.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

Some of these schools may be AAP centers. Some may have preK special ed. etc. It's really hard to compare.

It might be easier to compare the ELL figures when those come out and compare those year over year to look at the impact of immigration on enrollment. But those won't be out for a while.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

Some of these schools may be AAP centers. Some may have preK special ed. etc. It's really hard to compare.

Yes, they all have different programming, but seemingly the numbers are falling at most elementaries across different pyramids and different demographics. That means it’s not “fear of ICE raids.” It’s a deeper demographic issue.

In 4 short years when the current 9th graders (which happens to be a larger group relative to the other grades) have graduated - there will be an additional fall-off in total enrollment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I checked the numbers and stats for a variety of schools across the county and with different demographics. The numbers are falling at the elementary level, while being mixed at the MS and HS levels. Some falling, some staying about the same, some slightly increasing. The lower/mixed income MS/HS that I looked at had enrollment drops. I bolded where the enrollments were found to have increased vs. the end of last year.

I'm going to keep looking at the elementary numbers and pull a few more. I'm curious if the random schools I just chose by looking at a list of the Title 1 schools and then looking at a map for the rest are representative of all the schools in the county. Every school I looked at except 1 at the elementary level, fell in enrollment from the end of last school year to September of this school year.

Title 1 elementary schools

Clearview (Herndon) – 37% ELL, 52% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 604
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 588

Lynbrook (Lewis) – 68% ELL, 63% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 590
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 565

Belvedere (Justice) – 73% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 625
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 603


Non-Title 1 elementaries

Lemon Road (Marshall) – 20% ELL, 16% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 617
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 605

Orange Hunt (West Springfield) – 4% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 879
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 850

Island Creek ( Hayfield) – 8% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 707
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 687

Oak Hill (Chantilly) – 8% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 650
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 683

Wolftrap (Madison) – 2% ELL, 1% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 529
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 499

Churchill Road (Langley) – 9% ELL, 2% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 633
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 625


Title 1 MS:
Holmes (Annandale) – 37% ELL, 47% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 902
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 892

Non-Title 1 MS:

Key (Lewis) – 44% ELL, 49% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 691
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 662

South County (South County) – 8% ELL, 20% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 951
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 953

Longfellow (McLean) – 9% ELL, 9% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1236
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1219

Irving (West Springfield) – 8% ELL, 13% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 1220
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 1238

Title 1 HS:
Justice HS – 41% ELL, 51% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2192

Non-Title 1 HS:
Lake Braddock (HS level) – 7% ELL, 19% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2946
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2907

Edison – 18% ELL, 33% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2284
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2207

Woodson – 7% ELL, 12% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2420
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2482

Oakton – 7% ELL, 14% FARMS
Enrollment end of 24-25: 2607
Enrollment Sept. 2025: 2711

Some of these schools may be AAP centers. Some may have preK special ed. etc. It's really hard to compare.

Yes, they all have different programming, but seemingly the numbers are falling at most elementaries across different pyramids and different demographics. That means it’s not “fear of ICE raids.” It’s a deeper demographic issue.

In 4 short years when the current 9th graders (which happens to be a larger group relative to the other grades) have graduated - there will be an additional fall-off in total enrollment.

Weird that enrollment drops as they started messing with school boundaries. Who could’ve ever guessed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

I'm saying the size of current grades 5 and 6 is absolutely smaller due to covid. Current 6th graders were subjected to virtual kindergarten, which was a disaster, and many went private instead. The next year started virtually so many of those students also went private. During those covid years the US population growth rate cratered, but started going back up in 2022 and has increased ever since. Do we plan based on covid numbers like this person posting ~25 student drops in elementary school totals? Or do we plan based on decades of population growth trends absent a cataclysmic pandemic?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

I'm saying the size of current grades 5 and 6 is absolutely smaller due to covid. Current 6th graders were subjected to virtual kindergarten, which was a disaster, and many went private instead. The next year started virtually so many of those students also went private. During those covid years the US population growth rate cratered, but started going back up in 2022 and has increased ever since. Do we plan based on covid numbers like this person posting ~25 student drops in elementary school totals? Or do we plan based on decades of population growth trends absent a cataclysmic pandemic?

If you’re talking about FCPS, they are “planning” based on last year’s enrollment numbers, (Thru’s approach to boundaries), a renovation queue developed 17 years ago (CIP), and an opportunity that was “too good to pass up” (KAA). It’s not really anything that can fairly be called “planning.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

Yes. The drop in ES numbers is because all the grades who started pre-covid are aging out into middle school and the covid years with lower numbers are the bulk of the schools now. Many kids went private due to covid and never came back, and many families pushed off having kids or had fewer. This is not a permanent demographic shift. The upward population push will (and has) continued in the years since. It's moronic to imply we should make long term changes based on covid numbers.

What "long term" changes are we at risk of making based on Covid numbers? The point of having reviews every five years is that we aren't locked into one set of boundaries forever.

I'm saying the size of current grades 5 and 6 is absolutely smaller due to covid. Current 6th graders were subjected to virtual kindergarten, which was a disaster, and many went private instead. The next year started virtually so many of those students also went private. During those covid years the US population growth rate cratered, but started going back up in 2022 and has increased ever since. Do we plan based on covid numbers like this person posting ~25 student drops in elementary school totals? Or do we plan based on decades of population growth trends absent a cataclysmic pandemic?

When you have consistent 25 student dropoffs at most elementary schools, that’s the 3000-4000 lower enrollment that Reid was talking about. She’s trying to claim it’s all families afraid of ICE activity. It clearly is not. It’s happening even at schools that should have low ICE involvement just based on their overall demographics.

We aren’t continuing on the path of population growth. The years of highest birth rates have already passed. Those kids born in the highest birth rate years (2006-2008) have largely graduated from high school now. They are being replaced by fewer and fewer children who were born in the 2020s. This is all easily verifiable. It should concern you that FCPS is going to continue asking for the same if not larger amounts of money while educating fewer and fewer children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’ve checked a few elementaries so far in a variety of areas and a variety of income levels/FARMS rates and demographics, and every one has had a membership decrease vs. the end of last school year. I compared the number on the school profile for “Enrollment as of September 202526:” to the total that I got for 2024-25 under the Demographics tab and adding up each grade total under the grade level section. I’ll post some findings in a bit when I’m done having lunch. But so far, this looks like a demographic change/aging population/fewer kids issue vs. a “people aren’t coming to school because of the fear of immigration raids” issue or whatever Reid wants to claim so that they can continue to claim the same amount of school funding/taxes for fewer students.

Across the division if you compare September 2025 vs. September 2024 it appears there are more students in grades 4, 7, and 9, and fewer students in every other grade. Overall they down over 3000 students since September 2024 and over 4000 students since June 2025.

If there are fewer students, they will probably say the population is needier (although that's open to debate, as the biggest decline in enrollment this year is Hispanic students, who tend to be higher needs) or that they have to make up for a loss of federal funding, and they still need more money from county taxpayers.

Current 4th being larger is likely due to increased redshirting in that grade in particular - kids born in 2015 who otherwise would have had to go to Covid/virtual Kindergarten. The other grades are probably just larger grades since those kids were already enrolled in school when Covid hit.

wrong grade. current 4th is 2015/2016 kids. current 5th started K in covid