Boundary Review Meetings

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

[Anonymous]

I poked through the September enrollment stats last night, thinking that I'd find an immigration-related signal, but I came up empty. At the elementary school level, at least for the top 10 declining schools, there was no correlation to the English-learner stats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I poked through the September enrollment stats last night, thinking that I'd find an immigration-related signal, but I came up empty. At the elementary school level, at least for the top 10 declining schools, there was no correlation to the English-learner stats.

I think those stats are from last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I poked through the September enrollment stats last night, thinking that I'd find an immigration-related signal, but I came up empty. At the elementary school level, at least for the top 10 declining schools, there was no correlation to the English-learner stats.

I think those stats are from last year.

DP. No. People have been discussing the September 2025 enrollment statistics released a few days ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I poked through the September enrollment stats last night, thinking that I'd find an immigration-related signal, but I came up empty. At the elementary school level, at least for the top 10 declining schools, there was no correlation to the English-learner stats.

I think those stats are from last year.

DP. No. People have been discussing the September 2025 enrollment statistics released a few days ago.

I mean the. English learner stat is from last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

Ah but didn't you hear? It will be another magnet school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Membership numbers for September have been posted.

Will Thru adjust its proposals to reflect the latest numbers, or shouldn't it do so? If not, they should go ahead and release the revised maps now and not wait until Friday evening.

They really should take the new numbers into consideration. Lewis is now down to 1540 total. Taxpayers should not be funding any new additions until all capacity in the county is taken advantage of.

Lewis is a money pit dump that needs to just be closed. Full stop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I poked through the September enrollment stats last night, thinking that I'd find an immigration-related signal, but I came up empty. At the elementary school level, at least for the top 10 declining schools, there was no correlation to the English-learner stats.

I think those stats are from last year.

DP. No. People have been discussing the September 2025 enrollment statistics released a few days ago.

I mean the. English learner stat is from last year.

Yes, but you can get big picture views knowing the general makeup of the school population. There were schools that had lower enrollment that were <10% English learner (24-25 stats) and those that were much higher. I was just looking for a general signal, and there wasn't one. I still don't doubt that there are fewer English learners in FCPS this year, but I would have expected it to be more pronounced.

[Anonymous]

Keene Mill ES (THE big AAP center for WSHS) showed a decrease from 825 at the end of last school year to 740 in September? What’s going on with that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keene Mill ES (THE big AAP center for WSHS) showed a decrease from 825 at the end of last school year to 740 in September? What’s going on with that?

Did one of their feeder schools add level 4 AAP?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.

They always make decisions slowly, based on data that is stale by the time they finally make a decision, and their decisions are almost always re-active rather than forward-looking.

You can point to birth rates and enrollment trends, but it won't change the fact that their approach is always to solve yesterday's problems starting next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Membership numbers for September have been posted.

Will Thru adjust its proposals to reflect the latest numbers, or shouldn't it do so? If not, they should go ahead and release the revised maps now and not wait until Friday evening.

They really should take the new numbers into consideration. Lewis is now down to 1540 total. Taxpayers should not be funding any new additions until all capacity in the county is taken advantage of.

Lewis is a money pit dump that needs to just be closed. Full stop.

Making the signature program at a school one that focuses on left-wing advocacy (the "Lewis Leadership Program") was not a smart move. It was the pet project of Karen Keys Gamarra, who saddled Lewis with this program and then bailed on the School Board.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.

Temporarily, and then after the dip following the peak works its way through the numbers will start going up again. The decrease is just a reversion to the mean rate of increase. We ran hot for a bit so the numbers got inflated. It's not like the student population is about to start going down permanently.