Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why isn’t the USA testing more people? Guys, it has to be circulating now given the international makeup of this country.

I do not understand this.

If the CDC is having difficulty figuring out how to get a test that will work, can they please reach out to another country or to scientists here in the US and ask for help?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In Italy they are I believe screening anyone who lives within 10 certain small towns where the outbreak has been noticed, as well as close contacts of anyone testing positive.

I don't believe they are testing only people with symptoms.

The hospitalizations are probably as a precaution and to get the positive patients out of their living situation so they can reopen the towns in 2 weeks.

“Screening” = actual testing or just checking for symptoms?

[Anonymous]

kills one in fifty?

[Anonymous]

investors race to gold...what's the reasoning behind that? That the stock market/global economy will collapse, and humankind will be back in the Middle Ages?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:kills one in fifty?

One in fifty that goes to the hospital. Most people are probably getting super mild colds that are no big deal unless you're 60+. The boomers can go ahead and retire and sell their houses and move to the country with fewer people if they're scared of this. We have super low inventory and high prices, they should just sell now so working people with kids can buy houses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:investors race to gold...what's the reasoning behind that? That the stock market/global economy will collapse, and humankind will be back in the Middle Ages?

"Racing to gold" doesn't mean worldwide collapse of the electrical grids and a return to the gold standard. Gold is considered a safe haven when the market goes down. So investors sell their stock and buy gold and bonds. This way they keep their money in something that's not cash but is still liquid so they can sell and buy back into stocks when things turn around. At this point, it's possible the coronavirus will lead to a mild recession. It's what's called a black swan event (something you can't predict that will cause a recession). The reason for the possible recession would be that people won't go about their daily lives in normal ways for fear of getting the virus. It's really silly though since for everyone under 60 years of age it really isn't that big of a deal other than you getting a mild cold then infecting grandma/pa with it and them dying.

Anyway, for the same reason investors are buying gold, they're also buying Treasuries. FYI: mortgage rates are linked with the 10 year treasury so if that goes down, rates will fall and it will be a good time to refinance your mortgage (unless you're afraid to be in contact with the bank's employees).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:investors race to gold...what's the reasoning behind that? That the stock market/global economy will collapse, and humankind will be back in the Middle Ages?

"Racing to gold" doesn't mean worldwide collapse of the electrical grids and a return to the gold standard. Gold is considered a safe haven when the market goes down. So investors sell their stock and buy gold and bonds. This way they keep their money in something that's not cash but is still liquid so they can sell and buy back into stocks when things turn around. At this point, it's possible the coronavirus will lead to a mild recession. It's what's called a black swan event (something you can't predict that will cause a recession). The reason for the possible recession would be that people won't go about their daily lives in normal ways for fear of getting the virus. It's really silly though since for everyone under 60 years of age it really isn't that big of a deal other than you getting a mild cold then infecting grandma/pa with it and them dying.

Anyway, for the same reason investors are buying gold, they're also buying Treasuries. FYI: mortgage rates are linked with the 10 year treasury so if that goes down, rates will fall and it will be a good time to refinance your mortgage (unless you're afraid to be in contact with the bank's employees).

ok, but the psychology behind the pursuit of precious metals still makes me chuckle.

[Anonymous]

For someone that asked about testing in US....
Apparently rest of world is using RNA testing.
CDC wants to use DNA testing which is slower and more difficult but has fewer false negatives. But they are having trouble with the test.
I think its a fair question whether they should be doing the RNA test in the meantime, and also whether countries should be reporting what test they are using.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:kills one in fifty?

One in fifty that goes to the hospital. Most people are probably getting super mild colds that are no big deal unless you're 60+. The boomers can go ahead and retire and sell their houses and move to the country with fewer people if they're scared of this. We have super low inventory and high prices, they should just sell now so working people with kids can buy houses.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on Chinese data is 2.3%. This will be lower in less overwhelmed and more advanced medical systems, higher in countries with poorer medical facilities..

80% mild, meaning 20% require hospitalization. 5% or so are estimated to need mechinial ventilation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For someone that asked about testing in US....
Apparently rest of world is using RNA testing.
CDC wants to use DNA testing which is slower and more difficult but has fewer false negatives. But they are having trouble with the test.
I think its a fair question whether they should be doing the RNA test in the meantime, and also whether countries should be reporting what test they are using.

Yes, this!

Time to do RNA testing. This may be a case where pursuit of the perfect is the enemy of the good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In Italy they are I believe screening anyone who lives within 10 certain small towns where the outbreak has been noticed, as well as close contacts of anyone testing positive.

I don't believe they are testing only people with symptoms.

The hospitalizations are probably as a precaution and to get the positive patients out of their living situation so they can reopen the towns in 2 weeks.

“Screening” = actual testing or just checking for symptoms?

I believe that in Italy they are attempting to test everyone in these towns.

[Anonymous]

If it is just a mild cold for most people, why are large countries shutting down schools and cancelling events? It feels like we aren't being told something.

[Anonymous]

This isn’t too far from where I live:

https://ktla.com/2020/02/23/naval-base-ventura-county-eyed-as-possible-repatriation-site-for-americans-quarantined-due-to-covid-19/

[Anonymous]

It seems like the news websites are changing now. It was odd that in past days, all the top news was politics, while all the most read articles were about the virus by contrast. I'd switched to BBC World on TV to see what was going on with the virus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If it is just a mild cold for most people, why are large countries shutting down schools and cancelling events? It feels like we aren't being told something.

Because if we had 80K deaths from the flu last season and no school closings, or other measures then the whole China ..world has less cov cases combined so far, let alone deaths. Maybe we just don't excite that easily?