Friday's "snow?"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

It's not the amount of snow, it's the risk of slippage that is determined by:

1. Cold temperatures going into this weather event. The ground is cold in the entire region, so anything that falls will stick immediately.
2. The risk of black ice, which is by far the most lethal risk. Tomorrow morning the risk of freezing rain, or melting snow that refreezes, is very low for the DC area, but there might be a risk later in the afternoon as the precipitation exists our area, but only for regions south of DC (not MCPS).
3. Road prep. Tomorrow's event coalesced at the last minute and perhaps some counties are not prepared. I know Howard County was out brining its roads today. Did anyone see MoCo trucks out there?

To the above we must add a psychological criteria for schools who just made decisions on closure/delays/dismissals:

5. If schools closed/delayed/dismissed for an event that people perceived was too minor, schools will have a tendency to underestimate the gravity of the next event. If they opened for an event that people perceived to warrant a closure/delay/dismissal, schools will have a tendency to overestimate the gravity of the next event.



Now do the math.

Yesss you clocked that up queen

[Anonymous]

^ messed up my numbers there

Anyway. I wouldn't want to be the decision-maker for this event. There's sticking snow for morning commute, some MoCo roads are not prepped for sure, and it's going to continue with flurries past the window for a 2hr delay, which means that a 2 hr delay doesn't really make sense, unless all they want is to stagger commute times so buses aren't running at the same time as all the other cars. A closure would address the entire window of snow, but if it's only a dusting, parents are going to be furious. Keeping things open is tempting, given the recent 2 hr delay that already made parents mad, but if it's an inch of snow that snarls traffic and causes collisions, parents are going to be mad as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

It's not the amount of snow, it's the risk of slippage that is determined by:

1. Cold temperatures going into this weather event. The ground is cold in the entire region, so anything that falls will stick immediately.
2. The risk of black ice, which is by far the most lethal risk. Tomorrow morning the risk of freezing rain, or melting snow that refreezes, is very low for the DC area, but there might be a risk later in the afternoon as the precipitation exists our area, but only for regions south of DC (not MCPS).
3. Road prep. Tomorrow's event coalesced at the last minute and perhaps some counties are not prepared. I know Howard County was out brining its roads today. Did anyone see MoCo trucks out there?

To the above we must add a psychological criteria for schools who just made decisions on closure/delays/dismissals:

5. If schools closed/delayed/dismissed for an event that people perceived was too minor, schools will have a tendency to underestimate the gravity of the next event. If they opened for an event that people perceived to warrant a closure/delay/dismissal, schools will have a tendency to overestimate the gravity of the next event.



Now do the math.

Main and side roads were all brined mid county

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

It's not the amount of snow, it's the risk of slippage that is determined by:

1. Cold temperatures going into this weather event. The ground is cold in the entire region, so anything that falls will stick immediately.
2. The risk of black ice, which is by far the most lethal risk. Tomorrow morning the risk of freezing rain, or melting snow that refreezes, is very low for the DC area, but there might be a risk later in the afternoon as the precipitation exists our area, but only for regions south of DC (not MCPS).
3. Road prep. Tomorrow's event coalesced at the last minute and perhaps some counties are not prepared. I know Howard County was out brining its roads today. Did anyone see MoCo trucks out there?

To the above we must add a psychological criteria for schools who just made decisions on closure/delays/dismissals:

5. If schools closed/delayed/dismissed for an event that people perceived was too minor, schools will have a tendency to underestimate the gravity of the next event. If they opened for an event that people perceived to warrant a closure/delay/dismissal, schools will have a tendency to overestimate the gravity of the next event.



Now do the math.

Main and side roads were all brined mid county

Good, but it's downcounty that matters for this event. Anyone see anything for downcounty?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

The winter weather advisory is from 4am to 4pm. Temperatures will be low enough for slick spots to form on untreated roads during the morning commute. Patches of freezing drizzle may persist through the early evening. Potentially, this won’t be a short, fast moving weather event. Depending on how the storm tracks we could get anywhere from nothing to up to 2” just south of DC. Their best guess for Montgomery County is a dusting to 1”, probably around 1/2”. The bigger problem is the potential freezing precipitation. Ice, not a dusting of snow, is the hazard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

It's not the amount of snow, it's the risk of slippage that is determined by:

1. Cold temperatures going into this weather event. The ground is cold in the entire region, so anything that falls will stick immediately.
2. The risk of black ice, which is by far the most lethal risk. Tomorrow morning the risk of freezing rain, or melting snow that refreezes, is very low for the DC area, but there might be a risk later in the afternoon as the precipitation exists our area, but only for regions south of DC (not MCPS).
3. Road prep. Tomorrow's event coalesced at the last minute and perhaps some counties are not prepared. I know Howard County was out brining its roads today. Did anyone see MoCo trucks out there?

To the above we must add a psychological criteria for schools who just made decisions on closure/delays/dismissals:

5. If schools closed/delayed/dismissed for an event that people perceived was too minor, schools will have a tendency to underestimate the gravity of the next event. If they opened for an event that people perceived to warrant a closure/delay/dismissal, schools will have a tendency to overestimate the gravity of the next event.

Now do the math.

This is a joke, right? I wasn't sure until i got to #5.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're forecasting less than an inch of snow.....why should we close for less than an inch?

It's not the amount of snow, it's the risk of slippage that is determined by:

1. Cold temperatures going into this weather event. The ground is cold in the entire region, so anything that falls will stick immediately.
2. The risk of black ice, which is by far the most lethal risk. Tomorrow morning the risk of freezing rain, or melting snow that refreezes, is very low for the DC area, but there might be a risk later in the afternoon as the precipitation exists our area, but only for regions south of DC (not MCPS).
3. Road prep. Tomorrow's event coalesced at the last minute and perhaps some counties are not prepared. I know Howard County was out brining its roads today. Did anyone see MoCo trucks out there?

To the above we must add a psychological criteria for schools who just made decisions on closure/delays/dismissals:

5. If schools closed/delayed/dismissed for an event that people perceived was too minor, schools will have a tendency to underestimate the gravity of the next event. If they opened for an event that people perceived to warrant a closure/delay/dismissal, schools will have a tendency to overestimate the gravity of the next event.

Now do the math.

This is a joke, right? I wasn't sure until i got to #5.

Ha! You're a joke

[Anonymous]

ICC was getting prepped around 1 p.m.

[Anonymous]

When in doubt - delay!!!!

[Anonymous]

Guessing a 2 hour delay then at 10ish am they will announce early releases so kids can eat then go home before the chance of freezing rain or more snow

[Anonymous]

Mcps doesnt like to close for school

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Guessing a 2 hour delay then at 10ish am they will announce early releases so kids can eat then go home before the chance of freezing rain or more snow

Agreed

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Guessing a 2 hour delay then at 10ish am they will announce early releases so kids can eat then go home before the chance of freezing rain or more snow

I've never had an early release for any of my 3 kids aged 11, 9 and 6 and I've lived in dc for 12 years. Does that actually happen? I feel like it would be so complicated especially knowing MCPS and DCPS. What if some parents just don't come pick their children up or don't realize they are supposed to?

[Anonymous]

"I've never had an early release for any of my 3 kids aged 11, 9 and 6 and I've lived in dc for 12 years. Does that actually happen? I feel like it would be so complicated especially knowing MCPS and DCPS. What if some parents just don't come pick their children up or don't realize they are supposed to?" Moco last year had an early release for quite a bit of rain, same with PG county I believe

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Guessing a 2 hour delay then at 10ish am they will announce early releases so kids can eat then go home before the chance of freezing rain or more snow

I've never had an early release for any of my 3 kids aged 11, 9 and 6 and I've lived in dc for 12 years. Does that actually happen? I feel like it would be so complicated especially knowing MCPS and DCPS. What if some parents just don't come pick their children up or don't realize they are supposed to?

I'm in PG County, but we had one a year or two ago for predicted high winds in the afternoon. IIRC, most of the surrounding counties had an early release, as well.