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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
The Conventional Wisdom is that Harris has to be ahead by 3-4 points in the national polls in order to win the Electoral College. But then the same polls that show the race tied or Harris +1 nationally will also say that Harris is tied or has a slight lead in critical swing states. So which is correct? If it was tied nationally and Harris was down by 2-3 points in all of the swing states, then we could say that we have a good idea of what is happening. But according to the CW, only one of those two things can be correct. They are mutually exclusive. Personally, I think presidential elections move in waves, so that one candidate will win all of the swing states, or almost all of them. So that’s what I expect to happen. |
Anonymous
| The answer is whatever makes it a horse race |
Anonymous
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CW is that Harris needs +4 to be comfortable without looking at state by state details, not that anything less than +4 means an EC loss.
Even +2 Trump could be a EC win for Harris. https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voter-index/republican-electoral-college-advantage |
Anonymous
The problem is relying on very small samplings to be indicative of a corresponding result on the larger scale. But individual votes don't just automatically scale up. How realistic do you think a sampling of 1200 random people are in trying to predict what 5M voters will vote (like in PA)? How accurate do you think a sampling of 675 people will be in accurately showing what 3.3M Arizona residents will vote like? The larger the sampling, the closer it gets to accurate, but you are relying on polling models to predict large scale actions of many individuals. And you are relying on the honesty of pollsters. But, unfortunately, we know that many pollsters out there bias the questions that they ask. We also know that some pollsters are not good about selecting their sample to ensure that it is reflective of the general population. There are many potential errors or influences that affect polls, but they are just shooting in the dark to get a ballpark. The problem is that as time goes on, the polls are not keeping up with changes in how voters respond. Right now, polls are rarely more than 50% cell phone, and typically 20-40% of the poll respondents. So 60-80% is often landlines. But very few people under 40 still have landlines. And those that are called on their cell phone, will often not answer unknown nuimbers. Those that have cell phones and will answer any call, tend to be older. You are really cutting down on the number of younger voters that will be captured in your poll data. That means that you are much more likely to get older voters in your sample, than younger. So, polls are getting more and more inaccurate. They adjust the models, but the adjustments are only to weigh different demographics more. But you still don't account for the inaccuracy of having a small subset of people trying to represent the whole. |
Anonymous
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At this point, if the polls show a tie in any particular swing state, my assumption is that the party that has a recent history of winning senate and presidential races (but not governor) is likely to win again. So a tie in NC means Trump is likely to win. And a tie in GA means Harris is likely to win. But like continents shifting one centimeter a year, states obviously do change over time. So you can’t be certain if this is the election cycle that finally sees a switch in party control. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
This is the first Presidential election Post Roe. There is no precedence, you cannot apply Conventional Wisdom. The winner of the 2024 election will be the person who get's the most people out to vote in the 7 key states (I'm including NC). If you are worried, volunteer for the campaign or party you want to win. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
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Likely they are weighted incorrectly. Nate Silver works for Polymarket which is owned and controlled by Peter Thiel, the same man who brought Vance up and groomed him. Peter Thiel is a billionaire who strongly supports Republicans and Trump. He is forcing Polymarket and Silver to bias their polls and reports. So, Silver has started to weight poorly rated polls that have huge problems with their accuracy and avoidance of bias. There is one poll that is run by some students and he weighted that more strongly than some of the mainstream and respected pollsters. At this point Nate Silver's unbiased review is highly in question. People should stop posting Nate Silver posts because there is no evidence that he is nonpartisan any longer. |
Anonymous
PP here. Thank you for your explanation. |