2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

The North Carolina Supreme Court ruled RFK has to be removed from the ballots. This is good for Trump. These liberal pollsters had both Clinton and Biden leading Trump in North Carolina, yet Trump won both elections in North Carolina. I don’t see why Harris would beat him when she is polling far worse than Clinton and Biden in most national polls.

The chance that she has is based on the Governor's race, because the GOP candidate is simply that bad.

The Presidential race is at the top of the ballot. People can vote for Trump and then make whatever choice they want in the governor’s race.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Stop posting this guy's 'analysis'. He is a complete hack.

Which of those polls is not correctly posted?

I'm sure the polls are fine. His claim that the EC isn't close is BS.

Ok...thanks for clarifying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

I am as terrified as anyone - but I feel like AZ is going to go for Harris.

It's helpful that Kelly and Giffords are much more respected than Lake and they will be leading the campaigning for Harris in AZ. Additinoally even though Meghan McCain has opted to sit out and vote for neither candidate, her brother, Jimmy McCain, said that he has switched parties to Democratic and will vote for Harris.

Arizona is also currently one of the eleven states that has an state constitutional abortion restriction on the ballot. Based on 2022 and 2023, each state in this situation has had higher than normal new voter registration and both young (18-30) and women support in record numbers and the Democratic party in state and local elections has done better. When those candidates come out to protect their reproductive rights, they tend to trend 65-80% Democratic.

Also, many will be coming out to ensure that Kari Lake does not make it to the US Senate and vote in Gallego.

Hopefully all of these will lead to the same voters voting for Harris over Trump. Still close, but I'm hopeful that AZ continues to vote Democratic on the national tickets as they have the last 4 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

The North Carolina Supreme Court ruled RFK has to be removed from the ballots. This is good for Trump. These liberal pollsters had both Clinton and Biden leading Trump in North Carolina, yet Trump won both elections in North Carolina. I don’t see why Harris would beat him when she is polling far worse than Clinton and Biden in most national polls.

The chance that she has is based on the Governor's race, because the GOP candidate is simply that bad.

The Presidential race is at the top of the ballot. People can vote for Trump and then make whatever choice they want in the governor’s race.

Look Trumps numbers have not changed. If you are undecided you are not voting for Trump. Right now with the latest polls Harris wins 292 to 246. Those undecided will break for Harris at about 70%. This is looking like a sweep election. Harris will most likely pick up Georgia and Arizona. People are tired of Trump.

Losing the presidency as a sitting president is very hard to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

The North Carolina Supreme Court ruled RFK has to be removed from the ballots. This is good for Trump. These liberal pollsters had both Clinton and Biden leading Trump in North Carolina, yet Trump won both elections in North Carolina. I don’t see why Harris would beat him when she is polling far worse than Clinton and Biden in most national polls.

The chance that she has is based on the Governor's race, because the GOP candidate is simply that bad.

The Presidential race is at the top of the ballot. People can vote for Trump and then make whatever choice they want in the governor’s race.

Look Trumps numbers have not changed. If you are undecided you are not voting for Trump. Right now with the latest polls Harris wins 292 to 246. Those undecided will break for Harris at about 70%. This is looking like a sweep election. Harris will most likely pick up Georgia and Arizona. People are tired of Trump.

Losing the presidency as a sitting president is very hard to do.

So Biden still has a chance?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Didn't polls and betting odds show HRC was going to win in 2016?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

The North Carolina Supreme Court ruled RFK has to be removed from the ballots. This is good for Trump. These liberal pollsters had both Clinton and Biden leading Trump in North Carolina, yet Trump won both elections in North Carolina. I don’t see why Harris would beat him when she is polling far worse than Clinton and Biden in most national polls.

The chance that she has is based on the Governor's race, because the GOP candidate is simply that bad.

The Presidential race is at the top of the ballot. People can vote for Trump and then make whatever choice they want in the governor’s race.

Look Trumps numbers have not changed. If you are undecided you are not voting for Trump. Right now with the latest polls Harris wins 292 to 246. Those undecided will break for Harris at about 70%. This is looking like a sweep election. Harris will most likely pick up Georgia and Arizona. People are tired of Trump.

Losing the presidency as a sitting president is very hard to do.

Your last sentence - Ford, Carter, Bush 1, Trump all say HELLO. People GOV and do not rely on these social media pundits making you think your vote isn’t needed because the polls say Harris win. Learn from 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Democrats have won all of the recent (post-2020) statewide senate elections—which are a great proxy for presidential races—in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. The exact same voters will turn out in 2024. Doesn’t that give Harris an edge in those states?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Democrats have won all of the recent (post-2020) statewide senate elections—which are a great proxy for presidential races—in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. The exact same voters will turn out in 2024. Doesn’t that give Harris an edge in those states?

Run off elections and mid term elections don’t have the same turnout as Presidential elections. They are not the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Democrats have won all of the recent (post-2020) statewide senate elections—which are a great proxy for presidential races—in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. The exact same voters will turn out in 2024. Doesn’t that give Harris an edge in those states?

Run off elections and mid term elections don’t have the same turnout as Presidential elections. They are not the same.

They have lower turn out. And yet the turn out was abnormally robust.

This 2024 election is going to have record breaking turn out, particularly for the Dems.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Didn't polls and betting odds show HRC was going to win in 2016?

No. "going to win" means 100-0 odds. Clinton was favored 2-1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Morning Consult has Harris up 3 in each blue wall state and tied in the other swing state except AZ.

The North Carolina Supreme Court ruled RFK has to be removed from the ballots. This is good for Trump. These liberal pollsters had both Clinton and Biden leading Trump in North Carolina, yet Trump won both elections in North Carolina. I don’t see why Harris would beat him when she is polling far worse than Clinton and Biden in most national polls.

The chance that she has is based on the Governor's race, because the GOP candidate is simply that bad.

The Presidential race is at the top of the ballot. People can vote for Trump and then make whatever choice they want in the governor’s race.

Look Trumps numbers have not changed. If you are undecided you are not voting for Trump. Right now with the latest polls Harris wins 292 to 246. Those undecided will break for Harris at about 70%. This is looking like a sweep election. Harris will most likely pick up Georgia and Arizona. People are tired of Trump.

Losing the presidency as a sitting president is very hard to do.

So Biden still has a chance?

lol

[Anonymous]

I just don't see national polls having enough detail predictive in the swing states that matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Didn't polls and betting odds show HRC was going to win in 2016?

No. "going to win" means 100-0 odds. Clinton was favored 2-1

Right, and Trump's odds aren't 100-0, more like Clinton's odds in 2016. And we all know how that turned out.