Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
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Anonymous
Empty bravado. |
Anonymous
| Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two. |
Anonymous
Nobody cares about the historical minutia of who was where first. That stuff never does. |
Anonymous
NP Go join your countrymen at the front... they need your help. |
Anonymous
Bluff? Interesting choice of word, but let me clarify something that I think you misunderstand. What good is having a nuclear deterrent if you let the other guy have the first hit. Do you seriously think it's a good idea to absorb nuclear strikes and sit around debating about it in Congress for weeks while cities and nukes are wiped out? Nah. That's silly. Another point. If you follow what Putin says versus what he does closely, you'll note that he doesn't make idle threats. If he says he's going to invade XYZ, he may wait a while, but he'll invade XYZ. He said as much prior to both invasions of Ukraine (remember the "lie down" comment?), invasion of Georgia, etc. So far Putin has danced dangerously close to the nuclear war topic, but has not come out with a clear and direct threat - but is getting closer to the line. Medvedev and others, a different story, but thankfully they still answer to Putin. If I were Tom Clancy, my guess is that the Russian military won't use chemical or biological weapons since it creates headaches for their own Army's ability to launch offensives. Besides, it's not a Soviet Union Military doctrinal 'escalation rule' that you must proceed from conventional to chemical to biological to nuclear weaponry. Soviet Military doctrine is more along the lines of first-strike / expediency, which presumably would include nuclear. Soviet doctrine regarding a conflict involving the US would typically be to (a) destroy, disable or distract as much of the US intel, strategic nuclear, submarine, early warning, and upper leadership preemptively as possible, then (b) launch an all out knock-out blow to ensure that no nuclear counterstrike would be possible. Again, it wouldn't be an escalation thing, it would be more of a repetitive series of fake-out / false starts to measure reaction times, determine the number of forces, where they are located etc. In theory, Russian sleeper cells would activate and begin operations prior to any attack. Once the Russian military is confident they understand the US playbook, then my guess is it would be an all-out jack-in-the-box thing; starting with sub nukes to knock out US missile early warning, missile defenses, nukes and C&C, followed by land rockets (to wipe out population and industry) and planes (to mop up). And yes, I believe the Russians would attack the US first, since we're a bigger threat than Europe. If you don't believe that Russian spies are active in the US, remember Putin was a 'real' KGB agent from 1975 to 1990. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_espionage_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegals_Program If you believe China would stop anyone, I think it's a little far-fetched. China stands to be the clear winner in any Russian-Western conflict. As long as China can feed it's own population, I don't think the CCP will care if the stock market crashes since it would teach the bourgeoisie capitalists a lesson in communist economics. There was an earlier thread where someone said the nuclear fallout would affect the entire planet, etc. Yup. I believe that's true. But you have to remember that the Communist Party didn't bat an eye when they held the May Day parade and marched the kids through the swirling radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. To this day the Russian Government is still trying to hide the birth defects in Belarus, so I don't think the Russian Government would really care about that. |
Anonymous
NP: yes, comrade. Please go directly to Bakhmut. - it’s only one tiny town, right? - Russia’s army is the strongest by far, right? - Russians obviously possess superior intelligence compared to all other races, right? - so their military tactics must also be superior, right? - Russians have nukes, so obviously they are strongest, right? - Russians say their soldiers can rip apart decadent NATO tanks with their bare hands, right? So Comrade Trollski: I must ask you an extremely serious and direct question: - why are you not going to Bahkmut to solve that little problem?? |
Anonymous
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This is another indication that Russia has lost.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/st-petersburg-bomb-cafe-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky/
Ukraine can go asymmetric. It will be terrorism back by the resources of a state. Bet they all ready have an operations planned. |
Anonymous
I guess we're ok with state sponsored terrorism as long as its our state sponsored terrorism? |
Anonymous
From what I can tell, Tatarsky was hyping Wagner while trashing the Russian military. It could have been an escalation between Putin loyalists and Prigozhin loyalists. |
Anonymous
Because the West and other sympathetic powers (Japan, S. Korea, etc.) hadn't really engaged on behalf of Ukraine. You can't compare pre-invasion to post-invasion balance of power. |
Anonymous
Oh, plus sanctions/loss of fossil fuel market for Russia post-invasion. |
Anonymous
Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that. Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative. So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution. Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here.. |
Anonymous
DP. Hmm. Given that Russia has devolved into a terrorist state itself (ex. soldiers encouraged to rape, pillage, murder, kidnap children, etc.) I'm not sure the morally relativistic argument you're making holds water? Would you be angry at a country that raped, pillaged, murdered, kidnapped your own relatives? If you wouldn't be, you're one cold-blooded killer yourself. |
Anonymous
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I’m fine with Russia taking all of Ukraine if it gives us license to conquer and remake Mexico
Mexico is a failed state and cannot be trusted any longer Polk messed up by not conquering it |
Anonymous
We can't fix Mexico, just like we can't fix all the countries in Central and South America. They're children of a very different culture. They need to do what they do and we need to not import it here. |