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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]History is long, cities are captured and change hands.  Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.[/quote]

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia.  Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result?   I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..).  I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end.  No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated.  The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea).  Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection.  And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet.  Xi may not want that.  Other chinese officials may not want that.  Now.  But later?  Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?[/quote]

No  :cry:

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.  [/quote]

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia.  It would be pure idiocy.[/quote]

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.[/quote]

Bluff?  Interesting choice of word, but let me clarify something that I think you misunderstand.  What good is having a nuclear deterrent if you let the other guy have the first hit.  Do you seriously think it's a good idea to absorb nuclear strikes and sit around debating about it in Congress for weeks while cities and nukes are wiped out?  Nah.  That's silly.

Another point.  If you follow what Putin says versus what he does closely, you'll note that he doesn't make idle threats.  If he says he's going to invade XYZ, he may wait a while, but he'll invade XYZ.  He said as much prior to both invasions of Ukraine (remember the "lie down" comment?), invasion of Georgia, etc.  So far Putin has danced dangerously close to the nuclear war topic, but has not come out with a clear and direct threat - but is getting closer to the line.  Medvedev and others, a different story, but thankfully they still answer to Putin.

If I were Tom Clancy, my guess is that the Russian military won't use chemical or biological weapons since it creates headaches for their own Army's ability to launch offensives.  Besides, it's not a Soviet Union Military doctrinal 'escalation rule' that you must proceed from conventional to chemical to biological to nuclear weaponry.  Soviet Military doctrine is more along the lines of first-strike / expediency, which presumably would include nuclear.  Soviet doctrine regarding a conflict involving the US would typically be to (a) destroy, disable or distract as much of the US intel, strategic nuclear, submarine, early warning, and upper leadership preemptively as possible, then (b) launch an all out knock-out blow to ensure that no nuclear counterstrike would be possible.  Again, it wouldn't be an escalation thing, it would be more of a repetitive series of fake-out / false starts to measure reaction times, determine the number of forces, where they are located etc.  In theory, Russian sleeper cells would activate and begin operations prior to any attack.  Once the Russian military is confident they understand the US playbook, then my guess is it would be an all-out jack-in-the-box thing; starting with sub nukes to knock out US missile early warning, missile defenses, nukes and C&C, followed by land rockets (to wipe out population and industry) and planes (to mop up).  And yes, I believe the Russians would attack the US first, since we're a bigger threat than Europe.

If you don't believe that Russian spies are active in the US, remember Putin was a 'real' KGB agent from 1975 to 1990. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_espionage_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegals_Program

If you believe China would stop anyone, I think it's a little far-fetched.  China stands to be the clear winner in any Russian-Western conflict.  As long as China can feed it's own population, I don't think the CCP will care if the stock market crashes since it would teach the bourgeoisie capitalists a lesson in communist economics.

There was an earlier thread where someone said the nuclear fallout would affect the entire planet, etc.  Yup.  I believe that's true.  But you have to remember that the Communist Party didn't bat an eye when they held the May Day parade and marched the kids through the swirling radioactive fallout from Chernobyl.  To this day the Russian Government is still trying to hide the birth defects in Belarus, so I don't think the Russian Government would really care about that.[/quote]

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