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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.[/quote]

Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that.

Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative.

So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution.

Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here..

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