What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

It will help if you realize that the political parties are not immutable, and that they do update their messaging and platforms frequently to reflect the issues of the day. It will also help if you realize that advances in data science make the job of “identifying” a coalition of likely voters that will capture roughly 50 percent of the population easier to achieve, to which the parties can direct their messaging and platforms frequently. It will also help if you realize-read something like federalist paper no 10 (regarding factions), to understand why capturing more than roughly 50 percent is nearly impossible, and thus dispel yourself of the notion that one of the parties will eventually capture a super majority of votes on a consistent basis.

[Anonymous]

The parties have shifted. Dems are now the party of GWB foreign policy mixed with far left stances on social issues. The problem is that the actual D politicians cannot speak out against any of the "progressive" policies no matter how unpopular they are.
Rep Seth Moulton has been attacked mercilessly for coming out against trans athletes in womens sports despite his opinion being that of the majority. There are now calls for his resignation or to primary him. Progressives seem to hate free speech these days which can turnoff the general public. I also dont think the left will help themselves running to echo chambers like bluesky.
Trump is a moderate in most respects with similar policies to those Bill Clinton held with a touch of Ross
Perot populism thrown in and a dash of isolation in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

NP. As a parent of Gen Z kids, I completely agree with this. I think this generation has a large quietly conservative group. They keep their heads down because they know how crazy the cancel kids get, but they do not like what the Democrats are selling.

I’m in a blue state, but these kids saw how they were locked down and kept out of school, and they’re still angry about it. Also, these are the kids who have endured classroom clearings repeatedly because of disruptive kids, and who don’t drink water during the day because the bathrooms are so unsafe. Trying to convince them that the Democrats are actually the party of education is a very tall order.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The parties have shifted. Dems are now the party of GWB foreign policy mixed with far left stances on social issues. The problem is that the actual D politicians cannot speak out against any of the "progressive" policies no matter how unpopular they are.
Rep Seth Moulton has been attacked mercilessly for coming out against trans athletes in womens sports despite his opinion being that of the majority. There are now calls for his resignation or to primary him. Progressives seem to hate free speech these days which can turnoff the general public. I also dont think the left will help themselves running to echo chambers like bluesky.
Trump is a moderate in most respects with similar policies to those Bill Clinton held with a touch of Ross
Perot populism thrown in and a dash of isolation in.

Moulton’s campaign manager resigned immediately, which goes to a structural problem in the party. If you think your career is at risk because your candidate espoused a position that 75% of Americans agree with, that is a serious problem structurally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

And that's the messaging Democrats should be promoting instead of far left agendas.

The Democratic party is not pushing a far left agenda. It's just college students and kids who are pushing this, like they always have but the right wing propaganda machine is magnifying its impact and duping people into voting against their own interests because of some silly college kids and their stupid words.

It really isn't just college kids. Look at the DC Council. Look at school boards in Montgomery or Fairfax counties. Look at the USAO office here. And then look at local governments everywhere - from San Francisco to Portland to Chicago to NY. Progressives are the core of the Democratic Party. That is people's every day experience with Democrats. It's local policies from crime to schools to section 8 housing to race-based hiring priorities. That's why Kamala Harris lost every swing state. National Democrats might be milquetoast. But at the local level, people are experiencing progressive policies. And they mostly hate it, which is why Democrats are losing support among every single demographic in America.

Agree. The people who don’t see this are delusional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

I agree with most of what you say … yet it’s not like the Republicans brand is warm and fuzzy? I guess at a minimum we don’t see examples of Republicans trying to get normal people fired.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

And that's the messaging Democrats should be promoting instead of far left agendas.

The Democratic party is not pushing a far left agenda. It's just college students and kids who are pushing this, like they always have but the right wing propaganda machine is magnifying its impact and duping people into voting against their own interests because of some silly college kids and their stupid words.

but like it or not, what the dumb college students do is part of the Democratic brand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

And that's the messaging Democrats should be promoting instead of far left agendas.

The Democratic party is not pushing a far left agenda. It's just college students and kids who are pushing this, like they always have but the right wing propaganda machine is magnifying its impact and duping people into voting against their own interests because of some silly college kids and their stupid words.

but like it or not, what the dumb college students do is part of the Democratic brand.

And the Nazi endorsement of Trump is part of the Republican party brand. I know which I would rather have on my side.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it will be hard to predict anything until Trump is gone. He’s a singular personality who, for some mysterious reason, draws people in. I’m not sure that a regular Republican would have moved all those needles in this past election.

Yes I totally agree! That’s what I mean about branding - he’s compelling for many. MTG not so much. even handsome younger ones (Gaetz, Hesgspeth) cannot overcome their issues with charisma like Trump does.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

NP. As a parent of Gen Z kids, I completely agree with this. I think this generation has a large quietly conservative group. They keep their heads down because they know how crazy the cancel kids get, but they do not like what the Democrats are selling.

I’m in a blue state, but these kids saw how they were locked down and kept out of school, and they’re still angry about it. Also, these are the kids who have endured classroom clearings repeatedly because of disruptive kids, and who don’t drink water during the day because the bathrooms are so unsafe. Trying to convince them that the Democrats are actually the party of education is a very tall order.

I get that perception, but what exactly do they think Republicans offer for education? Vouchers so they can all go to religious schools? Mandatory bible text in schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The parties have shifted. Dems are now the party of GWB foreign policy mixed with far left stances on social issues. The problem is that the actual D politicians cannot speak out against any of the "progressive" policies no matter how unpopular they are.
Rep Seth Moulton has been attacked mercilessly for coming out against trans athletes in womens sports despite his opinion being that of the majority. There are now calls for his resignation or to primary him. Progressives seem to hate free speech these days which can turnoff the general public. I also dont think the left will help themselves running to echo chambers like bluesky.
Trump is a moderate in most respects with similar policies to those Bill Clinton held with a touch of Ross
Perot populism thrown in and a dash of isolation in.

Moderates don’t appoint far right conservatives to the Supreme Court. Moderates don’t threaten to use their office to purge the military and prosecute their enemies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

NP. As a parent of Gen Z kids, I completely agree with this. I think this generation has a large quietly conservative group. They keep their heads down because they know how crazy the cancel kids get, but they do not like what the Democrats are selling.

I’m in a blue state, but these kids saw how they were locked down and kept out of school, and they’re still angry about it. Also, these are the kids who have endured classroom clearings repeatedly because of disruptive kids, and who don’t drink water during the day because the bathrooms are so unsafe. Trying to convince them that the Democrats are actually the party of education is a very tall order.

I get that perception, but what exactly do they think Republicans offer for education? Vouchers so they can all go to religious schools? Mandatory bible text in schools?

These are blue state kids. They have no experience with Republicans at a local, educational level. So, they aren’t voting for the Republicans, but rather against the Democrats.

I’ve heard Gen Z kids say that they will never vote Democrat because of what Democrats did to their schools. It’s the issue they live and see most.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

NP. As a parent of Gen Z kids, I completely agree with this. I think this generation has a large quietly conservative group. They keep their heads down because they know how crazy the cancel kids get, but they do not like what the Democrats are selling.

I’m in a blue state, but these kids saw how they were locked down and kept out of school, and they’re still angry about it. Also, these are the kids who have endured classroom clearings repeatedly because of disruptive kids, and who don’t drink water during the day because the bathrooms are so unsafe. Trying to convince them that the Democrats are actually the party of education is a very tall order.

I get that perception, but what exactly do they think Republicans offer for education? Vouchers so they can all go to religious schools? Mandatory bible text in schools?

These are blue state kids. They have no experience with Republicans at a local, educational level. So, they aren’t voting for the Republicans, but rather against the Democrats.

I’ve heard Gen Z kids say that they will never vote Democrat because of what Democrats did to their schools. It’s the issue they live and see most.

I don't think this is discussed enough. Progressives with their school policies - from Covid shut downs to restorative justice policies that made schools a chaotic nightmare - have turned an entire generation of public school students against the Democratic Party. You only get one chance to make a first impression, and Democrats have made an awful impression on GenZ. I don't think it's surprising that most of the radical progressive young people today are private school students. Public school students are generally fed up with Democrats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

Yes. Increasingly, Democrats are seen as the party of wealthy gatekeepers with clipboards. Do you share preferred pronouns in your emails? Do you use the term LatinX? Do you agree trans women are real women? Do you advocate for restorative justice? If you do not answer correctly, you are the enemy.

Younger people don't have a natural party affiliation. For them, Obama is something from the history books. They look at progressives today and see ideologically rigid bullies that will happily cancel and destroy anyone that dares question prevailing leftish social positions. And these days, progressives offer nothing at all when it comes to real issues like health care, the cost of living, or the environment.

I see it with my own college-aged kids. The Democratic brand is not strong. It's whiny, self-indulgent, and often very wrong on the issues young people experience every day - from chaotic schools to violent crime. But they've learned to keep their head down and not question Democrats publicly, because they can see online what the left does to anyone that disagrees with them. But generally, GenZ is not liking what they see among Democrats. I think as a group, GenZ is far more pragmatic and rooted in common sense than people give them credit for. And consequently, they are not identifying with Democrats anymore.

NP. As a parent of Gen Z kids, I completely agree with this. I think this generation has a large quietly conservative group. They keep their heads down because they know how crazy the cancel kids get, but they do not like what the Democrats are selling.

I’m in a blue state, but these kids saw how they were locked down and kept out of school, and they’re still angry about it. Also, these are the kids who have endured classroom clearings repeatedly because of disruptive kids, and who don’t drink water during the day because the bathrooms are so unsafe. Trying to convince them that the Democrats are actually the party of education is a very tall order.

I get that perception, but what exactly do they think Republicans offer for education? Vouchers so they can all go to religious schools? Mandatory bible text in schools?

These are blue state kids. They have no experience with Republicans at a local, educational level. So, they aren’t voting for the Republicans, but rather against the Democrats.

I’ve heard Gen Z kids say that they will never vote Democrat because of what Democrats did to their schools. It’s the issue they live and see most.

I don't think this is discussed enough. Progressives with their school policies - from Covid shut downs to restorative justice policies that made schools a chaotic nightmare - have turned an entire generation of public school students against the Democratic Party. You only get one chance to make a first impression, and Democrats have made an awful impression on GenZ. I don't think it's surprising that most of the radical progressive young people today are private school students. Public school students are generally fed up with Democrats.

Agreed. I don’t see strong support for Democrats in blue state public school kids of voting age. It’s the wealthier private school kids that were enthusiastic for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

That halo is slipping.