Reply to What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade. [/quote]

It will help if you realize that the political parties are not immutable, and that they do update their messaging and platforms frequently to reflect the issues of the day.  It will also help if you realize that advances in data science make the job of “identifying” a coalition of likely voters that will capture roughly 50 percent of the population easier to achieve, to which the parties can direct their messaging and platforms frequently.  It will also help if you realize-read something like federalist paper no 10 (regarding factions), to understand why capturing more than roughly 50 percent is nearly impossible, and thus dispel yourself of the notion that one of the parties will eventually capture a super majority of votes on a consistent basis.
[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics