What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?

[Anonymous]

Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

[Anonymous]

Many Latino voters are catholic and held conservative views on social issues. as such, they have never been "reliably" democrats by any stretch. Only with some DACAs and the anti-immigration rhetoric did it sway more to the left.

[Anonymous]

The two dominant shifts are toward (1) gender-based political alignment regardless of race; and (2) urban versus rural regardless of geography.

[Anonymous]

I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

[Anonymous]

I think the current crop of young people are going to be more conservative than a lot of people predicted. For a while it seemed like Gen Z was going to be very social justice oriented and progressive. And I do think there’s a little microgeneration of of that. But I think the youngest Gen Z’ers will be more to the right due to certain online messaging being targeted at them and just generally wanting the perceived stability that comes with a more so-called traditional lifestyle. It will be more pronounced among young men, but I think we will see it in women too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

Can we stop with this lie please? First things first, only three percent of those Americans who voted for Donald Trump are black. Not just black men. All blacks. Three percent. That's it. "Other" weighs in at five percent. Eighty-four percent of Trump's voters are white. Those are the people who should own the next four years: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-gained-some-minority-voters-but-the-gop-is-hardly-a-multiracial-coalition.

Regarding black men, they didn't move increasingly toward the GOP. Did you know there's a huge divide between foreign-born black men and American-born black men? In 2020, the former voted for Trump at a thirty percent clip. American-born black men? Only ten percent: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/not-like-us-exploring-foreign-born-black-mens-distinct-voting-patterns-in-the-2020-election/. That's a huge difference, and no one is talking about it. If there was any movement of black male voters toward Trump in 2024, immigration from Africa and the Caribbean explains it more than anything the GOP as a party has to offer. Trump's gains with black men -- small that they were -- is unique to him and him only (especially in Wisconsin; that I can't explain). Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of Tommy Tuberville's mouth resonates with black men?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the current crop of young people are going to be more conservative than a lot of people predicted. For a while it seemed like Gen Z was going to be very social justice oriented and progressive. And I do think there’s a little microgeneration of of that. But I think the youngest Gen Z’ers will be more to the right due to certain online messaging being targeted at them and just generally wanting the perceived stability that comes with a more so-called traditional lifestyle. It will be more pronounced among young men, but I think we will see it in women too.

The majority of my college seniors academic and social circle which is pretty big voted Trump, and not quietly. They are at a University that would surprise you, not dullards either, hardcore STEM majors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Many Latino voters are catholic and held conservative views on social issues. as such, they have never been "reliably" democrats by any stretch. Only with some DACAs and the anti-immigration rhetoric did it sway more to the left.

Reliably Democrats but not reliably liberal

[Anonymous]

White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

Smart people will stop voting for Rs and Ds until they get their poop together.

[Anonymous]

Baby boomers dying off.

[Anonymous]

Ha ha ha. Once Trump and his ridiculous cronies destroy this country, Dems will win big.

[Anonymous]

Democrats will have a hard time winning the presidency going forward. In the most recent election, they lost all seven swing states. And this is with Republicans having nominated one of the weakest and most unpopular candidates in history. If Republicans had chosen a sane candidate, even Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota and other reliably blue states would have been lost as well.

Democrats have always very lazily relied on demographic trends for their future growth. But surprise. Increasingly, Latinos and young people (18-24) are repelled by progressives. And there is no winning anything nationally for Democrats without Latinos and young people. They've already lost the working and most of the middle class. And now they are losing what was long assumed to be a fair chunk of their base. Once Republicans move to a post-Trump era, Democrats are going to have a very hard time remaining viable nationally. Cultural progressives have cost Democrats dearly.

[Anonymous]

Dems will sweep the 2026 mid- terms.