What will be the next demographic shakeup in electoral politics?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

Can we stop with this lie please? First things first, only three percent of those Americans who voted for Donald Trump are black. Not just black men. All blacks. Three percent. That's it. "Other" weighs in at five percent. Eighty-four percent of Trump's voters are white. Those are the people who should own the next four years: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-gained-some-minority-voters-but-the-gop-is-hardly-a-multiracial-coalition.

Regarding black men, they didn't move increasingly toward the GOP. Did you know there's a huge divide between foreign-born black men and American-born black men? In 2020, the former voted for Trump at a thirty percent clip. American-born black men? Only ten percent: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/not-like-us-exploring-foreign-born-black-mens-distinct-voting-patterns-in-the-2020-election/. That's a huge difference, and no one is talking about it. If there was any movement of black male voters toward Trump in 2024, immigration from Africa and the Caribbean explains it more than anything the GOP as a party has to offer. Trump's gains with black men -- small that they were -- is unique to him and him only (especially in Wisconsin; that I can't explain). Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of Tommy Tuberville's mouth resonates with black men?

That might be one of the Democrats problems: Black intersectionality. Once you start splitting up the group and then claiming anyone from those groups speaks for all of them, you are going to have problems. They are either a monolith or they are not. You can't have it both ways.

[Anonymous]

Next shift might be an explosion in Mormon voters. Probably explains the wins in Arizona and Nevada, and Colorado will shift next.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Democrats will have a hard time winning the presidency going forward. In the most recent election, they lost all seven swing states. And this is with Republicans having nominated one of the weakest and most unpopular candidates in history. If Republicans had chosen a sane candidate, even Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota and other reliably blue states would have been lost as well.

Democrats have always very lazily relied on demographic trends for their future growth. But surprise. Increasingly, Latinos and young people (18-24) are repelled by progressives. And there is no winning anything nationally for Democrats without Latinos and young people. They've already lost the working and most of the middle class. And now they are losing what was long assumed to be a fair chunk of their base. Once Republicans move to a post-Trump era, Democrats are going to have a very hard time remaining viable nationally. Cultural progressives have cost Democrats dearly.

Trump did better than the Senate and House candidates. It might be a regular Republican will do better with suburban women, but fail to bring out all those new voters and do worse than Trump.

[Anonymous]

There was better turn out for black men in general. Kamala got more votes from black men than Biden.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Next shift might be an explosion in Mormon voters. Probably explains the wins in Arizona and Nevada, and Colorado will shift next.

I guess when you breed exponentially that will happen.

Best way to increase membership - birth ‘em.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Democrats will have a hard time winning the presidency going forward. In the most recent election, they lost all seven swing states. And this is with Republicans having nominated one of the weakest and most unpopular candidates in history. If Republicans had chosen a sane candidate, even Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota and other reliably blue states would have been lost as well.

Democrats have always very lazily relied on demographic trends for their future growth. But surprise. Increasingly, Latinos and young people (18-24) are repelled by progressives. And there is no winning anything nationally for Democrats without Latinos and young people. They've already lost the working and most of the middle class. And now they are losing what was long assumed to be a fair chunk of their base. Once Republicans move to a post-Trump era, Democrats are going to have a very hard time remaining viable nationally. Cultural progressives have cost Democrats dearly.

Agree. I'm not sure what is more pathetic between a party that nominates someone as weak and unpopular as Trump three consecutive POTUS elections or a party that loses to him in two of three elections. Needless to say, both parties need to shape up or ship out. Placing blame on a miscalculation of voting trends of certain demographics is a poor excuse for dysfunction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think college educated voters will be next. There were a lot of moral superiority arguments being made before that just don’t hold water anymore.

I think so too. I think the Democratic Party used to be the culture of coolness for the educated but that’s not true anymore. Edginess has gone elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

The thing is, Latino men voted for Trump in part because a woman was running. To act like this is a permanent shift is to misunderstand the dynamic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:White workingclass males are going to be disgusted with how trump and the billionares duped them, and they will realize the party that supports unions, healthcare, min wage and safer working conditions is the party actually looking out for their interests.

I don't think the Democrats are capable of going back to their roots on most of these issues. They became much more of a corporate party in the last decade, and their focus has shifted to "woke" cultural issues away from bread and butter. Bernie lost the fight for the soul of the party, and now it is what it is. The party leadership visibly hates the working class, and have in many ways became a caricature of what the Republican party used to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Many Latino voters are catholic and held conservative views on social issues. as such, they have never been "reliably" democrats by any stretch. Only with some DACAs and the anti-immigration rhetoric did it sway more to the left.

I have been talking to the Hispanic men who own small I use all the time. The older men voted for Harris. the younger men, including the son of one of the older men, voted for Trump. Why? All about the economy and how smart these kids are. One told me about his friend who started to work in a hotel during the pandemic when no one else wanted to work there. He sanitized the rooms that were used. The manager saw how well he did and continued to promote him. He is now the front end manager of the hotel and back in a local college finishing his undergrad degree. Another started a type of cleaning company when he finished high school in 2016 and it became very popular during the pandemic. He had too much business and could hire people to work for him. He sold it to a larger company, took the money, finished a degree and then bought back his company. All voted for Trump because they thought he would be best for the economy.

These are some of the "demographic" that voted for Trump. Not a fan of Trump and did not vote for him, but you asked who did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Next shift might be an explosion in Mormon voters. Probably explains the wins in Arizona and Nevada, and Colorado will shift next.

Along with the migration of people from California to, especially, Arizona and Nevada who are tired of California's expensive, liberal politics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Dems will sweep the 2026 mid- terms.

What is their platform? Trump lite, protecting the traditions the senate(filibuster), no reform of SCOTUS, moderates, etc will not win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latino voters, once a Democratic stronghold, have been increasingly shifting to the right especially among men (Trump won the Latino male vote, for example). This is in contrast to the longstanding prediction that the GOP is basically screwed as "the demographics of the US change" or that somewhere like Texas is on the path to becoming a blue state because "THE LATINO VOTE." Anyone who is actually familiar with the values of this demographic (generally religious and socially conservative) probably isn't too surprised by this, but I distinctly remember the death of the GOP being predicted in 2012 after the Romney loss and especially in 2016 before Trump's win given his rhetoric towards immigrants, etc.

But, alas, that did not happen and has shifted in the opposite direction of predictions.

Even Black voters, esp. Black men, moved increasingly towards the GOP this election, although it remains to be seen if that will constitute a pattern in the way that Latinos have moved right in consecutive elections.

Dems lost the white working class vote years ago. Conversely, the "white college educated" voters, have become a critical part of the Democrats base, and affluent suburban areas have shifted left a LOT in the past decade.

Can we stop with this lie please? First things first, only three percent of those Americans who voted for Donald Trump are black. Not just black men. All blacks. Three percent. That's it. "Other" weighs in at five percent. Eighty-four percent of Trump's voters are white. Those are the people who should own the next four years: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-gained-some-minority-voters-but-the-gop-is-hardly-a-multiracial-coalition.

Regarding black men, they didn't move increasingly toward the GOP. Did you know there's a huge divide between foreign-born black men and American-born black men? In 2020, the former voted for Trump at a thirty percent clip. American-born black men? Only ten percent: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/not-like-us-exploring-foreign-born-black-mens-distinct-voting-patterns-in-the-2020-election/. That's a huge difference, and no one is talking about it. If there was any movement of black male voters toward Trump in 2024, immigration from Africa and the Caribbean explains it more than anything the GOP as a party has to offer. Trump's gains with black men -- small that they were -- is unique to him and him only (especially in Wisconsin; that I can't explain). Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of Tommy Tuberville's mouth resonates with black men?

African Americans are increasingly the less important minority as the recent election clearly showed. Hispanics are the demographic force that will be close to the majority in the country by mid-Century. The "black" people who may start coming here are climae migrants from African countries. Particularly if they are Muslim, they will be more socially conservative.

You are grasping at straws trying to downplay the movement of "black" men to Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dems will sweep the 2026 mid- terms.

What is their platform? Trump lite, protecting the traditions the senate(filibuster), no reform of SCOTUS, moderates, etc will not win.

Muh body, muh democracy, muh freedom, muh joy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The thing is, Latino men voted for Trump in part because a woman was running. To act like this is a permanent shift is to misunderstand the dynamic.

You have never been around Hispanic men or women if you think the old stereotype of a woman being submissive to a man still holds. During the pandemic a lot shifted when the jobs Hispanic held were shut down and women in fields of daycare, cleaning, and other service providers became the top earners. Hispanic men respect women just fine. That's why they saw how lackluster Kamala Harris is and why they did not vote for her.