What colleges are the rest of TJ students (not in the top 20%) going?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Not true. UVA is a safety for most TJ students except for the bottom 1/3.

Weird because the data shows it's the number 1 destination for TJ students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Despite not being a top STEM school admissions to UVA engineering and CS are heavily competitive. If you don't have 1550+ SAT and a 4.5+ GPA you can pretty much forget about it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Not true. UVA is a safety for most TJ students except for the bottom 1/3.

Weird because the data shows it's the number 1 destination for TJ students.

Because of the in state tuition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Not true. UVA is a safety for most TJ students except for the bottom 1/3.

Weird because the data shows it's the number 1 destination for TJ students.

A statement saying many can and do get in and another statement saying many do attend are not incompatible and therefore not weird.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Not true. UVA is a safety for most TJ students except for the bottom 1/3.

Weird because the data shows it's the number 1 destination for TJ students.

Because of the in state tuition.

That's one theory but personally I believe it's their best option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

It's because the caliber of TJ students wasn't the same by 2022. The student body was more homogenous and with all the entrance exams favoring prep over ability there were fewer gifted students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

It's because the caliber of TJ students wasn't the same by 2022. The student body was more homogenous and with all the entrance exams favoring prep over ability there were fewer gifted students.

Quality of TJ students had actually increased during that time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

I mean, for some yes, but for many, no.

UVA is historically attracted to well-rounded students. Those were in greater supply in earlier years at TJ and are in significantly shorter supply now. But the ones who deserve to get in generally do.

And UVA is the only game in town (state) and it is rejecting many more TJ students sending them reluctantly out of state and there are no other factors in play?

Not true. UVA is a safety for most TJ students except for the bottom 1/3.

This was true up until about 2008-2010 but is no longer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

It's because the caliber of TJ students wasn't the same by 2022. The student body was more homogenous and with all the entrance exams favoring prep over ability there were fewer gifted students.

I think it's less that the caliber of TJ students had declined so much as it is that they were too similar, to your second point. It doesn't do UVA or any other elite school any favors to admit a bunch of kids who all look the same on paper and who are trying to accomplish the same goals through the same means. That's bad for business.

There have always been students at TJ who follow the relatively rigid model of (maximize math advancement) + (maximize AP classes) + (focus exclusively on STEM ECs) + (layer in something like Model UN or Debate) + (compete in national level STEM events) in order to optimize their college application. Those students did a lot better in the admissions game when there were 50 in every class instead of 250.

An amusing phenomenon at TJ is whenever a kid announces that they've been accepted to an Ivy or a Duke or a Stanford or an MIT, immediately they get hundreds of friend requests and follows with DMs asking them how they did it. You then have hundreds of TJ kids who are trying to follow the same path, only to be disappointed when they learn that there's no value for the college in admitting 100 carbon copies of the same kid with the same resume as the one they already took.

For years kids were convinced that Crew was the magic secret to getting into an Ivy because a couple of kids a dozen years ago got in as recruited athletes when they had (for TJ) relatively weak scores and GPAs. But those kids were 6'7 and could pull an erg faster than anyone in the area. That same logic doesn't help a 5'6 kid with no muscle tone get to Princeton.

[Anonymous]

It feels like (at least up to ‘23) that the median income of parents have gone up compared to past years. At least judging from the cars being driven in at the dropoff lanes.

I think that might explain why more go OOS. My experience (just anecdotal) is the kids are getting in into one of {vt,uva,wm} but their parents can afford {umich,uiuc,gt,ucx}

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It feels like (at least up to ‘23) that the median income of parents have gone up compared to past years. At least judging from the cars being driven in at the dropoff lanes.

I think that might explain why more go OOS. My experience (just anecdotal) is the kids are getting in into one of {vt,uva,wm} but their parents can afford {umich,uiuc,gt,ucx}

Is it that the parents can afford or OOS aid is bringing the cost to a similar level?

The other thing to consider is I think some of these kids just want to put NoVa in the rear view mirror for a few years at least.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

It's because the caliber of TJ students wasn't the same by 2022. The student body was more homogenous and with all the entrance exams favoring prep over ability there were fewer gifted students.

Quality of TJ students had actually increased during that time.

If the quality of students was declining, the percentage of students going to top schools overall would be declining. Is there any evidence of that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Last year had UVA (49), W&M (26), VA Tech (7), VCU (10), GMU (10).
I think the middle of the road kids get shut out at UVA and VA Tech and go to OOS schools - Purdue, UIUC, Michigan etc

So you are saying VT only had 7 because they largely didn't admit TJ students?

This is a big change from a generation ago. I'm a late-90s TJ grad and my memory is that about 100 people went to UVA, a quarter of the class. Another huge chunk went to VT too. I wonder when the UVa numbers dropped?

Probably when the rest of VA started complaining!

A much higher percentage of TJ students now go OOS.

Are they going OOS by choice?

In 2011, 193 reported they are attending UVA, W&M, and VT. In 2022, that number had declined to 82, a decline of 58%, with each school down by more than 50%. You can say it is because they are more selective, but I suspect some other dynamic is in play. I don't think the same decline is happening at other NoVa schools.

It's because the caliber of TJ students wasn't the same by 2022. The student body was more homogenous and with all the entrance exams favoring prep over ability there were fewer gifted students.

I think it's less that the caliber of TJ students had declined so much as it is that they were too similar, to your second point. It doesn't do UVA or any other elite school any favors to admit a bunch of kids who all look the same on paper and who are trying to accomplish the same goals through the same means. That's bad for business.

There have always been students at TJ who follow the relatively rigid model of (maximize math advancement) + (maximize AP classes) + (focus exclusively on STEM ECs) + (layer in something like Model UN or Debate) + (compete in national level STEM events) in order to optimize their college application. Those students did a lot better in the admissions game when there were 50 in every class instead of 250.

An amusing phenomenon at TJ is whenever a kid announces that they've been accepted to an Ivy or a Duke or a Stanford or an MIT, immediately they get hundreds of friend requests and follows with DMs asking them how they did it. You then have hundreds of TJ kids who are trying to follow the same path, only to be disappointed when they learn that there's no value for the college in admitting 100 carbon copies of the same kid with the same resume as the one they already took.

For years kids were convinced that Crew was the magic secret to getting into an Ivy because a couple of kids a dozen years ago got in as recruited athletes when they had (for TJ) relatively weak scores and GPAs. But those kids were 6'7 and could pull an erg faster than anyone in the area. That same logic doesn't help a 5'6 kid with no muscle tone get to Princeton.

That sounds like the sorry defense of making Asians have much higher stats, etc. than other groups to be admitted.

[Anonymous]

No mention of SLACs here. I know they're not known for STEM but I would imagine that would love TJ kids. Doesn't anyone want to study econ at Williams or Middlebury etc ? I'm sure there are plenty of parents who can afford these schools.