Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fabulous news. Can't wait until multiple factions headed by various warlords have access to nukes.

Hey, poster who lives next to the pentagon, still blasé at the nuclear implications of this conflict?

We faced the same thing with the breakup of the Soviet Union, with missiles in so many republics. It's not without risk but we have dealt with this problem before.

DP. Except nobody believes the west and its guarantees anymore

It's so telling that you put all responsibility on the West. Goes to show how far faith in the the post-Soviet Russian confederation has diminished.

Well why did Ukraine agree to surrender its nuclear weapons? Wasn’t there some kind of guarantee?

Yes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

[Anonymous]

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

The Wagner soldiers are all vanishing. Putin has lost his best army. Gone. Just like the Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So if the Wagner soldiers were being used like ground meat to buffer the regular Russian military, does this mean the Russian regulars will now take their place on the front lines?

The Russian regulars are conscripts from the ethnic hinterlands with barely any training. At least Wagner had battle-hardened operators and criminals accustomed to violence.

Officially they don’t send conscripts to the frontline. Unofficially it does happen I think, but there is a large number of contracted troops (they are the majority). Not private army but the ones who signed a contract as opposed to have been drafted. Can’t speak to their level of training.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

The Wagner soldiers are all vanishing. Putin has lost his best army. Gone. Just like the Ukraine.

Like the Ukraine? Wagner was the only one who made any progress at all on the Ukraine front in the last 8 months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So if the Wagner soldiers were being used like ground meat to buffer the regular Russian military, does this mean the Russian regulars will now take their place on the front lines?

The Russian regulars are conscripts from the ethnic hinterlands with barely any training. At least Wagner had battle-hardened operators and criminals accustomed to violence.

Officially they don’t send conscripts to the frontline. Unofficially it does happen I think, but there is a large number of contracted troops (they are the majority). Not private army but the ones who signed a contract as opposed to have been drafted. Can’t speak to their level of training.

Or level of sobriety

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

The Wagner soldiers are all vanishing. Putin has lost his best army. Gone. Just like the Ukraine.

His best army, you people are hilarious. Not a month ago you people were saying they used human wave tactics and we're losing 5-1 in Bakhmut.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia was more calm about a literal warlord rolling up to moscow than Americans over j6

You tell me which country is more stable

Also there was no looting and such. Videos of the Wagner boys ordering at the former McDonalds are quite something. Civilians being very quiet though lol

Some civvies were buying food for the Wagner boys — some boys took the food some boys didn’t.

See how orderly Rostov was compared to dc on j6 or during George Floyd summer of love? 😂

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

Yep very efficient and effective management that sends a message.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

The Wagner soldiers are all vanishing. Putin has lost his best army. Gone. Just like the Ukraine.

His best army, you people are hilarious. Not a month ago you people were saying they used human wave tactics and we're losing 5-1 in Bakhmut.

Yes, best army. The others are all worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F06%2F25%2Fyevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family%2F



Putin didn’t even have to fire a shot. Now he will assimilate Wagner soldiers and Prigozhin is in mortal danger. Gotta admit that was a checkmate move.

The Wagner soldiers are all vanishing. Putin has lost his best army. Gone. Just like the Ukraine.

His best army, you people are hilarious. Not a month ago you people were saying they used human wave tactics and we're losing 5-1 in Bakhmut.

Yes, best army. The others are all worse.

+1

Wagner was indeed Russia's best army. They are the only one that made any gains in Ukraine in MONTHS.

And to think they will accept contracts with the Russian MOD is ridiculous - work for half the pay and quadruple the bureaucracy and incompetence and inefficiency?

Prigozhin has work for many of them in Africa and elsewhere. And many would sooner bail and leave Russia than serve its corrupt and broken military..

[Anonymous]

Agree that Wagner PMC was the most fearsome unit by most accounts. I took a look at who is considered 'top dog' now and ran across something interesting.

"Russia redeployed two separate airborne units from the occupied territories of Ukraine to protect its capital, Moscow, during the Wagner Group's mutiny"
"Up to two companies of Russia’s 76th Airborne Assault Division"
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-redeploys-airborne-troops-from-ukraine-to-protect-moscow-from-prigozhins-mutiny/

This is telling. First, only two companies were redeployed, and they were re-deployed from the Ukrainian front lines? Second, both the 90th Guards Tank Division and the 76th Air Assault Brigade appear to be the top Russian units on the battlefield right now; currently in the midst of launching a counter-attack.

"At the same time, the Russian army did not sit still. In the Luhansk region, they have already attacked across the board and are advancing in the direction of Kupyansk and Hongliman. These units are the elite of the Russian army, such as the 90th Guards Tank Division and the 76th Air Assault Brigade."
https://min.news/en/military/e95aa527ca06ae31a0f1f18185136f71.html

"The 76th Guards Air Assault Division of the Airborne Forces continues its offensive in the Oskol area"
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1672839739903229953

Question - why would you pull two companies from the front-line spearhead of a counter-attack?

Answer - possibly because they were the only strategic reserve force available and capable?

This could indicate just how paper thin the Russian military may be spread and why Wagner met no resistance on the way to Moscow, since this was probably the only strategic reserve that they could quickly deploy.

[Anonymous]

And to be specific, my guess is those two companies were probably the strategic rapid deployment reserve (ace card) for the 76th Air Assault Brigade. The Kremlin top brass likely panicked and pulled them out of the AO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those of you hoping for a "coup" or regime change.......

Does it occur to you that regime change might make Russia even worse?
I think Putin is a dangerous dictator, but will people from the Wagner Group be better?

I’m no expert (and some here actually are; I barely follow this stuff) but yes, I know it could be worse. The thing is that Putin is terrible. For two quick examples, his invasion of Ukraine and his treatment of Alexei Navalny.

Also my weakly hoping for Putin to be deposed isn’t really going to move the needle anywhere. I just wish Putin were gone and that some of the promise of democracy that Russia had in the early 90s could be realized.

Russia lived a hungry life under that promise and they won’t forget it. They are completely disillusioned about the West and democracy (didn’t turn out well for them). I don’t think there is any hope now. It will always be some level of autocracy

💯

It’s as if people have no contact or Russian knowledge

There was a good foreign affairs piece recently on how Russia’s future lies to the east.

Russia needs to stop looking west as they have done for 400 years.

The reform Russia needs is to see the east as equals and not through a misguided racial superiority lens — 400 years of chasing European acceptance as been for naught.

Democracy and being a “Western European country” is not for Russia and deep down even the normal Russian person doesn’t want this.

PP you are replying to. I think Russia needs to be pragmatic. They can very well work with the west if they realize that the west is prone to outsmart them, that they will never join the first world club (that they already know actually) and the west is their class enemy. Which does not mean the literal adversary! Just that their interests are exactly the opposite, so they need to keep the diplomacy going . Russia really sucks at diplomacy. There are very few young, westernized diplomats. They also suck at PR and marketing. Pragmatism is the name of the game for them, not trying to fight absolutely stupid wars or make ridiculous demands or even more ridiculous concessions to the west like it was before Putin.

I'm not a politician nor a European/Eurasia/Asia expert by any stretch of the imagination. But sometimes the experts become entrenched with technicalities in their respective specialties. That can lead to thinking that is interesting to contemplate but maybe not too smart.

I don't think Europe has a problem with Russia being part of Europe; I think Europe has a problem with a Russia that is forever governed by maniacs and thugs. Russia's instability threatens what can be a tenuous peace in the rest of Europe. Russian's fall to communism led to communism threatening peace in the rest of Europe. The Russian revolution that overthrew its last czar finally pulled Russia out of a medieval structure, but that change was immediately usurped by yet another oppressive form of government. Subsequently Russia has not had the chance to enjoy the fruits of democracy that most of Europe today takes for granted. That is the problem Europe has with Russia.

Russia would be extraordinarily foolish to look towards the East and China. The racial/cultural/religious/etc divides will never allow Russia to operate on equal footing with that part of the world. John Lennon sang a pretty song, Imagine, but in the real world these differences would be insurmountable. The only thing Russia would achieve would be to become subservient to its Asian overlords.

I'm Eurasian (one european parent, one asian parent). The mixing of cultures works well for some people, PP
Having said that, I agree that since the "West" 's greatest export is democracy, that any nuclear country that is not a democracy threatens its ideals in the most fundamental way.

Russia, which has a ton of antiquated nuclear weapons, is the largest country in the world by far, has been unstable so many times in past 100 years, and has never had a truly democratic government...

... is felt to be an enormous threat by the west. The goal of NATO and associated countries is the long-term democratization of Russia. That's it. It's far-fetched, and perhaps won't happen in our lifetimes, but plenty of goals have been started by humans who knew they wouldn't live to see the final achievement. Notre Dame, the Paris Cathedral, took two centuries to complete. People are preparing to travel to Mars. Humans live in hope.

The U.S.’ greatest exports is weapons. Stop regurgitating DoS talking points that are demonstrably, obviously false on their face. What you call democracy is just hegemony and expansion of global interests, which the US does hesitate to advance with violent means and lies. Just stop.

What arrogance to say that NATO and the US should have any say in how other countries are ran.

I am talking ideas. Ideas are in many ways far deadlier than weapons, PP. Look at religious fervor and what massacres they have wrought over millenia. It's high time you understood this. Western democratization has been the driving force behind international policy since WWII. Russia, China, N. Korea and a whole lot of other autocratic nations see those ideals as an existential threat.

This is a fact, not a talking point. It's neither good nor bad, nor is it arrogant. It's a FACT.

It is also a fact that the most powerful nations will always attempt to run other people's countries for them if they feel it's in their interest to do so. This is what Russia and China are also doing, in their spheres of influence. Indeed, France is quite salty about its loss of influence in Mali due to Wagner troops having sowed enough doubts about their intentions that now a large number of Malians don't want French soldiers in their country. You can call that arrogance, I call it the logical way to preserve or expand one's influence in the world.

There is no judgment here, PP. We are describing real events in the real world.

Tell me you have no idea how America is perceived outside of its borders without telling me you have no idea.

[Anonymous]

Alena Lapshyna "Hello, this is live news on Channel One. Measures are being taken in different regions in connection with the events of last night. The attempted mutiny, the criminal scheme that Yevgeny Prigozhin tried to organize. The counter-terrorist operation mode was introduced in the capital, the Moscow and Voronezh regions. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin addressed the Muscovites."
Dmitry Shchugorev: "Meanwhile, earlier today the president made a statement after the attempted armed mutiny, "Russia is fighting an uphill battle for its future, for the lives and security of our people for our sovereignty and independence," Vladimir Putin said.
https://www.news.com.au/world/this-is-how-russian-tv-covered-wagners-advance/video/6e207b1e4d33dcb4332b221aa8ee73fc

Anyone on this thread ever hear Putin say something like this before?

The War in Ukraine might be over by xmas.