Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.
We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.
Based on?
Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.
On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.
Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.
Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.
If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.
You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.
I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.
Lol. Bookmarked.
“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.
The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.
Not a trumpster btw
I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.
The PP was from March 21. Math is always right. We have 5102 deaths as of this evening. We might be hitting PP's prediction a day earlier.
USA 215,003 +26,473 5,102 +1,049 (Last updated: April 02, 2020, 00:44 GMT)
There is a lot of white noise in these death tallies. If you dig into it, they are taking great liberties with what counts as a CV death.
So *that’s* the new talking point? They SAY a 1000 people died of it, but who knows, really?
Lol it’s funny. What’s next, Republicans will say the people filling hospitals all have the swine flu?
It’s funny you should mention swine flu. This exact problem is referenced on the data section of its wiki page:
The initial outbreak received a week of near-constant media attention. Epidemiologists cautioned that the number of cases reported in the early days of an outbreak can be very inaccurate and deceptive, due to several causes, among them selection bias, media bias and incorrect reporting by governments. Inaccuracies could also be caused by authorities in different countries looking at differing population groups. Furthermore, countries with poor health care systems and older laboratory facilities may take longer to identify or report cases."[E]ven in developed countries the [numbers of flu deaths] are uncertain, because medical authorities don't usually verify who actually died of influenza and who died of a flu-like illness"
The same wiki article states that for both swine flu and regular flu, the real number of deaths is much higher than the number of confirmed cases.
Number of deaths higher than confirmed cases? You sure about that? That’s a LOT of people.
Did you even click on the source? It was WHO spin and post-hoc rationalization trying to save face for getting people whipped up into a frenzy. “Unquestionably higher”? Well...duh, they were still tallying the deaths lol. A nothing statement and a flu that ended up being a giant nothingburger.
WHO was repeating China’s line that Corona isn’t transmitted human to human just a short while ago. They should be treated as prima facie suspect given their track record. Mistrust, but verify my friend.
How about what’s happening here in the good old US of A? You really think we’re getting an accurate count?
Average Cook County deaths run about four pages on average. This one is eight pages, per the source.
No, we are likely not getting an accurate count at all. That was kinda the point.
Deliberately obtuse again. The point is we are likely getting an undercount not an overcount. And you know it.
I have already suggested that we are likely overcounting in certain ways and undercounting in others.
Articles and commentaries from experts who actually know what they are talking about have been posted. Knock yourself out.
Again you miss the point. You are 0 for 1000 in responding to the point. This is real time data. It's not predigested for you by real or imagined experts. It asks you to really think, not just pretend to think. There is an unexplained increase in deaths due to unknown respiratory illnesses in Cook County. Why do you think that is?
Some good stuff in here about data discrepancies, U.S. counting practices, the initial estimates for H1N1 versus the eventuality (hint: they were high) and YES, the simultaneous possible over and undercounting that could be going on (hint: you have no credible idea how much either way yet). Knock yourself out, champ (or ignore like usual).
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
No, I am not that poster. I rarely say anything in absolute terms. But you frequently speak in absolutes and drip with condescension. I don't know why you think that's okay for you but not for others. Especially when you condescend from such a low place.
If we were on plane that lost an engine, you'd be chiding your fellow passengers for "hysteria" that the plane might crash and cite general plane crash statistics. You'd say we need to wait for the official NTSB report on our incident before we can worry about the plane is crashingnor not.
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
No, I am not that poster. I rarely say anything in absolute terms. But you frequently speak in absolutes and drip with condescension. I don't know why you think that's okay for you but not for others. Especially when you condescend from such a low place.
If we were on plane that lost an engine, you'd be chiding your fellow passengers for "hysteria" that the plane might crash and cite general plane crash statistics. You'd say we need to wait for the official NTSB report on our incident before we can worry about the plane is crashingnor not.
So...just so we’re clear, is that a no to the drinks?
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
No, I am not that poster. I rarely say anything in absolute terms. But you frequently speak in absolutes and drip with condescension. I don't know why you think that's okay for you but not for others. Especially when you condescend from such a low place.
If we were on plane that lost an engine, you'd be chiding your fellow passengers for "hysteria" that the plane might crash and cite general plane crash statistics. You'd say we need to wait for the official NTSB report on our incident before we can worry about the plane is crashingnor not.
So...just so we’re clear, is that a no to the drinks?
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
No, I am not that poster. I rarely say anything in absolute terms. But you frequently speak in absolutes and drip with condescension. I don't know why you think that's okay for you but not for others. Especially when you condescend from such a low place.
If we were on plane that lost an engine, you'd be chiding your fellow passengers for "hysteria" that the plane might crash and cite general plane crash statistics. You'd say we need to wait for the official NTSB report on our incident before we can worry about the plane is crashingnor not.
So...just so we’re clear, is that a no to the drinks?
It's a no to your lame answers.
Lol, clever! Such a shame, drinks would have been fun, darling!
I don’t care about some dumb Cook county anecdote that can be countered with another anecdote that tells us nothing about broad trends. Boring and a waste of time. You should humble yourself about what you think you are seeing in this early data. Especially when it has been shown that early data is often messy and inaccurate.
Yeah the data is crap, but you are still missing the point. This is a life or death crisis, not an academic exercise. YOU may not care about this or that data, but all the decision makers have to. In Sweden, based on the current crappy data only, they decided not to shut down. In Norway, they did shut down. What do you think will happen to the government of Sweden if they end up having a much higher death rate than Norway? What will happen in Norway if they don't?
And this is obviously not boring you since you keep answering. In fact it seems very important to you that people not use whatever data you don't like. Tough. They will use it anyway. And make decisions on it. We all make decisions on crap data all the time. You are doing it as well. Right now. Only pretending not to.
Biased, sensational media, plus bad data, plus panic is an unholy cocktail and leads to bad decisions. We already have precedent from H1N1. Why is this so hard to understand?!?
Lawd have mercy.
And you think I'm not humble?
If you are the PP that was certain that deaths were being undercounted, then yes, a little more epistemic humility couldn’t hurt.
I’m sure you’re a lovely person overall and we can grab post-Corona drinks
No, I am not that poster. I rarely say anything in absolute terms. But you frequently speak in absolutes and drip with condescension. I don't know why you think that's okay for you but not for others. Especially when you condescend from such a low place.
If we were on plane that lost an engine, you'd be chiding your fellow passengers for "hysteria" that the plane might crash and cite general plane crash statistics. You'd say we need to wait for the official NTSB report on our incident before we can worry about the plane is crashingnor not.
So...just so we’re clear, is that a no to the drinks?
It's a no to your lame answers.
Lol, clever! Such a shame, drinks would have been fun, darling!
This is interesting. Social distancing is working. Though we added 33,000 new cases today, the growth rate probably slowed a little bit because the testing has picked up from yesterday. But we are still not doing enough social distancing as we should.
Anonymous wrote:OP here. I don't know whether PP who predicted we would have 6250 deaths by April 3rd two weeks ago is still visiting this board. That was one of the most accurate "models" I have seen. Perhaps PP can comment on the 100 - 240k deaths model that the WH is using. I predicted in another thread ("4 million deaths") two weeks ago we would have 100 - 250 k deaths.
As of April 03, 2020, 22:48 GMT, we have 7,086 deaths.
USA 275,744 +30,867 7,086 +1,015
I'm still here. The initial phase of the pandemic is relatively easy to model because it's simple exponential growth model that is common in many fields. But where we end up is harder to predict because there are lot of unknowns. You have to make a lot of guesses about when and how fast the curve will flatten. And we don't know how many people have already been exposed but get no symptoms. So my next guesses probably aren't going to be as accurate. With that in mind, I'm predicting 30,000 deaths by next Friday, at which point, I expect well see start to see some curve flattening.
Playing around on the other end of this with some too simple assumptions and math, I got 180,000 deaths, which is in the middle of the White House model. So I think they might be right. But it's a really hard call and small changes in assumptions can make a big difference.
We are starting to see some curve flattening now, which is very good news. If that keeps up, we might have around 15000 deaths by Friday.
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