Reply to US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]OP here. I don't know whether PP who predicted we would have 6250 deaths by April 3rd two weeks ago is still visiting this board. That was one of the most accurate "models" I have seen. Perhaps PP can comment on the 100 - 240k deaths model that the WH is using. I predicted in another thread ("4 million deaths") two weeks ago we would have 100 - 250 k deaths.

As of April 03, 2020, 22:48 GMT, we have 7,086 deaths.

USA	275,744	+30,867	7,086	+1,015	
[/quote]
I'm still here.  The initial phase of the pandemic is relatively easy to model because it's simple exponential growth model that is common in many fields.  But where we end up is harder to predict because there are lot of unknowns.  You have to make a lot of guesses about when and how fast the curve will flatten.  And we don't know how many people have already been exposed but get no symptoms.  So my next guesses probably aren't going to be as accurate.  With that in mind, I'm predicting 30,000 deaths by next Friday, at which point, I expect well see start to see some curve flattening.

Playing around on the other end of this with some too simple assumptions and math, I got 180,000 deaths, which is in the middle of the White House model.  So I think they might be right.  But it's a really hard call and small changes in assumptions can make a big difference.  [/quote]
We are starting to see some curve flattening now, which is very good news.  If that keeps up, we might have around 15000 deaths by Friday.[/quote]

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