2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Florida is living with the implementation of MAGA policies. Guess it’s not so great after all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really don’t understand how polling works nowadays. Does anyone under the age of 70 respond to a poll? Do they still do them by phone? I just hand up if anyone from a pollster calls me.

They will text you. I got one from CBS/ YOUTUBE/ back in July when Biden was still in office-

How many people respond to texts? I block all that stuff. I just don’t feel like the polls can get an accurate statistically sampling — it’s so skewed to people that either have nothing better to do, or have an agenda attached to inflating their candidates numbers.

They adjust based on demographics.

So if 80 old people answer and 5 young people answer, the young people count more in the extrapolatets weighted average. And same for every demographic they think of.

That's why different polls have different house effects / biases.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Significant or not, that’s an ugly hypocrisy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Having family there who are Jewish, Trump has shown to be the better friend to Israel and Jews in America. All this antisemitism and threatening Jewish students on college campuses is horrific. This is happening under Harris!

All the Jewish friends of my parents who live in Florida and their community there are voting for Trump.

The Dems have shown they care more about Islamic vote of people in Michigan compared to Jewish voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Significant or not, that’s an ugly hypocrisy.

LOL. Oh the irony. Felon Trump wouldn't be able to vote had it not been for the voter law the GOP fought so hard against.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Don’t worry about the elderly vote.

My conservative family and many of their friends have moved to Florida since 2020 from places like NY, Mass. So there will be plenty of “new” elderly voters there voting for Trump. They were happy to get out the tax hellholes of Mass and NY and places that their votes did not matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Having family there who are Jewish, Trump has shown to be the better friend to Israel and Jews in America. All this antisemitism and threatening Jewish students on college campuses is horrific. This is happening under Harris!

All the Jewish friends of my parents who live in Florida and their community there are voting for Trump.

The Dems have shown they care more about Islamic vote of people in Michigan compared to Jewish voters.

You sound like a bot. Let's not forget that this week alone Trump and Vance refused this week to condemn Tucker Carlson for interviewing and giving a forum to a Holocaust denier. But if you think the party of "Jews will not replace us" is your happy place, you do you.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/business/media/tucker-carlson-holocaust-interview-biden-administration.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Hillary was looking good in 2016 and everyone thought she might win Florida and she campaigned there and failed to visit Wisconsin which everyone thought was in the bag. I don't think Kamala will make the same mistake. She's laser focused on the states she must win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Having family there who are Jewish, Trump has shown to be the better friend to Israel and Jews in America. All this antisemitism and threatening Jewish students on college campuses is horrific. This is happening under Harris!

All the Jewish friends of my parents who live in Florida and their community there are voting for Trump.

The Dems have shown they care more about Islamic vote of people in Michigan compared to Jewish voters.

That may be. But apparently the polling would disagree (68 for Harris, 25 for Trump). Apparently many Jewish voters take issue with Trump telling them they are stupid if they don’t vote for him. So I guess your family is in the minority then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think Florida is worth the effort as it's gone so red in recent years, but Harris is within striking distance in these latest polls.

Trump leads Harris by just 2 points in Florida: Poll
by Julia Manchester - 09/09/24 7:46 PM ET

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4870702-florida-trump-harris-poll/

Winning Florida would make just about everything else negligible in terms of an Electoral College map...I don't think Trump would have a path to victory if that were to happen.

Lots of reasons that Trump needs to watch out there. The abortion ballot. The loss of many elderly voters to Covid. His massive unpopularity with Jewish voters. Plus the abject failure of the “culture war” policies.

And families of felons probably don’t think it’s fair he gets to vote - though I don’t know if that’s a significant demographic.

Having family there who are Jewish, Trump has shown to be the better friend to Israel and Jews in America. All this antisemitism and threatening Jewish students on college campuses is horrific. This is happening under Harris!

All the Jewish friends of my parents who live in Florida and their community there are voting for Trump.

The Dems have shown they care more about Islamic vote of people in Michigan compared to Jewish voters.

That may be. But apparently the polling would disagree (68 for Harris, 25 for Trump). Apparently many Jewish voters take issue with Trump telling them they are stupid if they don’t vote for him. So I guess your family is in the minority then.

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-09-09/ty-article-opinion/.premium/why-trump-and-vance-wont-condemn-tucker-carlson-and-his-holocaust-denying-pals/00000191-d69a-db58-afbb-defefa580000
Why Trump and Vance Won't Condemn Tucker Carlson and His Holocaust-denying Pals
At least Donald Trump is consistent. He's been defending antisemites and Holocaust deniers for years. But as the Republican presidential candidate, his proximity to Tucker Carlson constitutes a clear and present danger to the U.S., Israel, and Jews across the globe

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Huh?

This has Harris is a stronger position across more states than 2 weeks ago.

(unless that was meant to be sarcastic)

I got it wrong. This is not a stall in momentum for Harris, it is a reversal.
Morning Consult polling in late August:

🟡 MICHIGAN: Harris+3 ➡️ Harris+3 [=]
🔴 WISCONSIN: Harris+8 ➡️ Harris+3 [R+5]
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Harris+4 ➡️ Harris+3 [R+1]
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Harris+2 ➡️ TIE [R+2]
🔴 NEVADA: Harris+4 ➡️ TIE [R+4]
🔴 GEORGIA: Harris+2 ➡️ TIE [R+2]
🔴 ARIZONA: TIE ➡️ Trump+2 [R+2]..

.

[Anonymous]

are we ever going to see polls between Trump and Biden?