2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

HIS VOTES DON'T MATTER. HIS MERE EXISTENCE WILL GIVE GOP MAJORITY OF SENATE!

People really need to understand how Congress works. The party with the most people in either chamber is the LEADER. They decide what bills come to the floor, what oversight gets done in committees, etc. Even if Hogan was an extremely liberal GOP he would give MAGA the Senate Majority. And we all know the leader will be from the MAGA wing.

It is no longer (not sure it ever was) about INDIVIDUALS. It's about WHO holds the MAJORITY.

And yes, I'm screaming because it doesn't seem like many people here get this.

No, they do get it.

The whites in western Maryland and Eastern shore don't want to vote for a black woman.

Don't worry: Montgomery, AA, Howard, Baltimore and its suburbs will carry the day for Alsobrooks in November.

Hogan might get 45%, if that much.

There are two universities in that region, UMES and Salisbury. The students will not vote for Hogan.

You aren't paying attention to the numbers.

PG County has almost as many people as the Eastern Shore and western panhandle combined. Montgomery County has more than both areas. Together, they have about 4x as many voters in the two regions. Both have more voters than the bottom 14 out of 24 counties COMBINED.

The top 5 counties in MD (Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore City, AA and Baltimore County) have almost 70% of the states votes and all but AA county lean heavily Democratic. Despite faulty polling, the numbers are NOT in Hogan's favor. The Senate is a very different animal than the Governor's mansion and MD is not putting a Republican into the Senate possibly flipping the majority back to the MAGA party.

Anyone who really thinks that Hogan will get better than about 48% is really deluding themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

HIS VOTES DON'T MATTER. HIS MERE EXISTENCE WILL GIVE GOP MAJORITY OF SENATE!

People really need to understand how Congress works. The party with the most people in either chamber is the LEADER. They decide what bills come to the floor, what oversight gets done in committees, etc. Even if Hogan was an extremely liberal GOP he would give MAGA the Senate Majority. And we all know the leader will be from the MAGA wing.

It is no longer (not sure it ever was) about INDIVIDUALS. It's about WHO holds the MAJORITY.

And yes, I'm screaming because it doesn't seem like many people here get this.

No, they do get it.

The whites in western Maryland and Eastern shore don't want to vote for a black woman.

Don't worry: Montgomery, AA, Howard, Baltimore and its suburbs will carry the day for Alsobrooks in November.

Hogan might get 45%, if that much.

There are two universities in that region, UMES and Salisbury. The students will not vote for Hogan.

You aren't paying attention to the numbers.

PG County has almost as many people as the Eastern Shore and western panhandle combined. Montgomery County has more than both areas. Together, they have about 4x as many voters in the two regions. Both have more voters than the bottom 14 out of 24 counties COMBINED.

The top 5 counties in MD (Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore City, AA and Baltimore County) have almost 70% of the states votes and all but AA county lean heavily Democratic. Despite faulty polling, the numbers are NOT in Hogan's favor. The Senate is a very different animal than the Governor's mansion and MD is not putting a Republican into the Senate possibly flipping the majority back to the MAGA party.

Anyone who really thinks that Hogan will get better than about 48% is really deluding themselves.

PP again.

If you want the actual numbers, I posted this on the David Trone thread in Metropolitan Politics.

I also made a correction. The top 5 jurisdictions are about 68% of the state.

Some of you people really need to learn how to do math.

There are 24 counties/jurisdictions in MD. The populations are
Montgomery County - 1.063M
Prince George's County - 948K
Baltimore County 843K
Anne Arundel County - 596K
Baltimore City 561K
...
Bottom 14 counties 826K TOTAL

PG County is bigger than the smallest 14 counties in the state.
The entire Eastern Shore is only about 415K
The entire western panhandle is 551K

Both PG and Montgomery are bigger than the entire panhandle and Eastern Shore put together.

And Alsobrooks will be winning the majority of the top 5 jurisdictions, which is just over half of the state.
Look at the votes today. There were more people that voted for Alsobrooks just in the primary than voted in the entire Republican primary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

HIS VOTES DON'T MATTER. HIS MERE EXISTENCE WILL GIVE GOP MAJORITY OF SENATE!

People really need to understand how Congress works. The party with the most people in either chamber is the LEADER. They decide what bills come to the floor, what oversight gets done in committees, etc. Even if Hogan was an extremely liberal GOP he would give MAGA the Senate Majority. And we all know the leader will be from the MAGA wing.

It is no longer (not sure it ever was) about INDIVIDUALS. It's about WHO holds the MAJORITY.

And yes, I'm screaming because it doesn't seem like many people here get this.

No, they do get it.

The whites in western Maryland and Eastern shore don't want to vote for a black woman.

Don't worry: Montgomery, AA, Howard, Baltimore and its suburbs will carry the day for Alsobrooks in November.

Hogan might get 45%, if that much.

There are two universities in that region, UMES and Salisbury. The students will not vote for Hogan.

You aren't paying attention to the numbers.

PG County has almost as many people as the Eastern Shore and western panhandle combined. Montgomery County has more than both areas. Together, they have about 4x as many voters in the two regions. Both have more voters than the bottom 14 out of 24 counties COMBINED.

The top 5 counties in MD (Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore City, AA and Baltimore County) have almost 70% of the states votes and all but AA county lean heavily Democratic. Despite faulty polling, the numbers are NOT in Hogan's favor. The Senate is a very different animal than the Governor's mansion and MD is not putting a Republican into the Senate possibly flipping the majority back to the MAGA party.

Anyone who really thinks that Hogan will get better than about 48% is really deluding themselves.

PP again.

If you want the actual numbers, I posted this on the David Trone thread in Metropolitan Politics.

I also made a correction. The top 5 jurisdictions are about 68% of the state.

Some of you people really need to learn how to do math.

There are 24 counties/jurisdictions in MD. The populations are
Montgomery County - 1.063M
Prince George's County - 948K
Baltimore County 843K
Anne Arundel County - 596K
Baltimore City 561K
...
Bottom 14 counties 826K TOTAL

PG County is bigger than the smallest 14 counties in the state.
The entire Eastern Shore is only about 415K
The entire western panhandle is 551K

Both PG and Montgomery are bigger than the entire panhandle and Eastern Shore put together.

And Alsobrooks will be winning the majority of the top 5 jurisdictions, which is just over half of the state.
Look at the votes today. There were more people that voted for Alsobrooks just in the primary than voted in the entire Republican primary.

Well stated. Thanks for the update and info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Just like Trone just showed, sometimes $ doesn’t matter.

That’s often the case when it’s a self financing candidate; much less so when not.

[Anonymous]

I think Republicans might win NJ Though. If Melendez gets 10% or more of the votes, as an independent there is a decent chance they Reps win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think Republicans might win NJ Though. If Melendez gets 10% or more of the votes, as an independent there is a decent chance they Reps win.

Only one thing to be done about Menendez...lock him up!

[Anonymous]

This Minnesota race is going to be fun to watch.

[Anonymous]

GOP - family values!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:GOP - family values!

Yup. Here’s Steve Garvey, GOP Senate candidate in California:
“In 1989, he was romantically involved with three women at once and impregnated two, both of whom sued. Garvey told courts repeatedly he was deep in debt and was late on payments large and small to his gardener, caterer and attorneys, The Los Angeles Times reported in 2006.” (All-time headline writing, btw)
https://www.tampabay.com/archive/2006/04/17/dodger-has-new-meaning-for-garvey/

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

This will do wonders for MAGA turnout in MD

[Anonymous]

Add Brown in Nevada to Hovde in Wisconsin, Rogers in Michigan and McCormick in Pennsylvania - that’s a long list of carpetbaggers.

[Anonymous]

And, in the first poll since the MD Senate primaries, Alsobrooks leads Hogan 45-34. This is much more in line with MD Senate voting for the last 40 years. I don't see much of anything that is going to help Hogan close the 10 point gap. I still think this is the closest that he will get in this race. It's only going to get worse for him, not better.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4737126-alsobrooks-leads-hogan-senate-poll/