Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
A few points from a microbiologist:

1. The mortality rate from this new coronavirus is significantly lower than for SARS and MERS. It’s at about 3%, which is still higher than the flu. However that 3% could be artificially high, since it only counts diagnosed cases, and not the multiple (hundreds? thousands?) cases that were too mild to seek medical care or a diagnostic test. In other words, DO NOT PANIC. Take travel precautions, that’s all.

2. These viruses always originate from other animal species (in this case, snakes might be suspected), and become known to humans when a mutation in the viral code makes it able to jump the species barrier and infect humans.

3. Jumping the species barrier can occur in any location where humans come into contact with other animals, but are most likely to happen in crowded human-animal situations, such as live animal markets in China and similar countries, which is why many such viruses have originated in China in recent years. MERS originated in the Middle East via camel.

4. Pandemics are the bane of public health organizations. No country in the world is adequately prepared for one. Our current situation is not a pandemic. The nightmare pandemic is this: a virus that is easily transferred from person to person yet has a somewhat high mortality rate. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that are not as easily transmitted as influenza viruses, however they are more deadly. A worst scenario is a resurgence of Avian flu, or similar: very infectious, and higher mortality than regular flu.

5. In virus theory, the deadlier they are, the less far they go, because they kill hosts and thus alert authorities before spreading too far. One reason the supremely lethal Ebola devastates certain regions of Africa is that the medical response lacks resources and population education is low. But in our interconnected world, a less deadly but more easily-spreading virus could do more damage if authorities don’t react with lightning speed to cordon off viral epicenters and quarantine patients. China has reacted fast and is applying massive resources to this situation, and this will have a significant impact on viral spread. Other countries must keep tabs on all incoming cases and follow-up with their nearest flight neighbors.


And. Do not panic.

Thank you! Can I ask, should we be weary of domestic travel to Seattle or ORD?

PP you replied to. I think it's safe enough if you really need to travel, but wash your hands.

It's winter. Perfect season to wear light gloves while in the airport and boarding.

[Anonymous]

23:01 Microbiologist, where did you get the 3% mortality rate from? Chinese media reports? Makes me doubt anything else you say

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:23:01 Microbiologist, where did you get the 3% mortality rate from? Chinese media reports? Makes me doubt anything else you say

Microbiologist here. Do the math yourself: about 54 deaths to 1700 total confirmed cases. Numbers will change almost hourly, but the mortality rate is unlikely to change much unless there is under-reporting of total cases, in which case it will decrease.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
A few points from a microbiologist:

1. The mortality rate from this new coronavirus is significantly lower than for SARS and MERS. It’s at about 3%, which is still higher than the flu. However that 3% could be artificially high, since it only counts diagnosed cases, and not the multiple (hundreds? thousands?) cases that were too mild to seek medical care or a diagnostic test. In other words, DO NOT PANIC. Take travel precautions, that’s all.

2. These viruses always originate from other animal species (in this case, snakes might be suspected), and become known to humans when a mutation in the viral code makes it able to jump the species barrier and infect humans.

3. Jumping the species barrier can occur in any location where humans come into contact with other animals, but are most likely to happen in crowded human-animal situations, such as live animal markets in China and similar countries, which is why many such viruses have originated in China in recent years. MERS originated in the Middle East via camel.

4. Pandemics are the bane of public health organizations. No country in the world is adequately prepared for one. Our current situation is not a pandemic. The nightmare pandemic is this: a virus that is easily transferred from person to person yet has a somewhat high mortality rate. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that are not as easily transmitted as influenza viruses, however they are more deadly. A worst scenario is a resurgence of Avian flu, or similar: very infectious, and higher mortality than regular flu.

5. In virus theory, the deadlier they are, the less far they go, because they kill hosts and thus alert authorities before spreading too far. One reason the supremely lethal Ebola devastates certain regions of Africa is that the medical response lacks resources and population education is low. But in our interconnected world, a less deadly but more easily-spreading virus could do more damage if authorities don’t react with lightning speed to cordon off viral epicenters and quarantine patients. China has reacted fast and is applying massive resources to this situation, and this will have a significant impact on viral spread. Other countries must keep tabs on all incoming cases and follow-up with their nearest flight neighbors.


And. Do not panic.

PP, question about the mortality rate? Could you please elaborate how is this calculated and
how do they arrive with the 3Percent? Do you calculate a cases of deceased people against
the people who got sick at exact time and got well?
Do we know and can we be sure they do know who got sick when there and do they compare
those people diligently? What if the other people are still symptomatic and so their condition
is still not final so how the mortality rate can be assessed ad such point?
Thanks for your input.

[Anonymous]

With respect, no scientist should be making blanket ‘compared to SARS’ or “compared to seasonal flu” statements given the massive difference in data reliability that currently exists. You cannot make these comparisons with any academic rigor at this time.

Seasonal influenza reporting is considerably more reliable and tested than media reported numbers produced this week (yes, this week only) from Chinese government sources. SARS data has been scruitinized for over a decade. While I’m not a panic induced alarmist, ‘it’s not as bad as SARS’ is still, from a data standpoint, an unreliable position at this time.

[Anonymous]

Let me add as a comparative tool:

Rabies - nearly 100%
Ebola - 60 -90% depending on strain
H5N1 Avian flu - 60%
MERS - 34% mortality
1918 Spanish flu - 10 to 20%
SARS - 10%
Regular flu - 0.1%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:23:01 Microbiologist, where did you get the 3% mortality rate from? Chinese media reports? Makes me doubt anything else you say

Microbiologist here. Do the math yourself: about 54 deaths to 1700 total confirmed cases. Numbers will change almost hourly, but the mortality rate is unlikely to change much unless there is under-reporting of total cases, in which case it will decrease.

Use some common sense, do you put a huge city under quarantine because of 54 deaths and 1700 cases

[Anonymous]

Forgot to identify myself - I'm the microbiologist at 23:36.

To respond to 23:34, we can definitely compare different epidemics! Mortality rates are known and even if the previous SARS epidemic had data reporting issues, the mortality rates are accurate. I'm not sure why you're assuming they're not, or why you are so concerned with data reliability. The network of virologists monitoring pandemics and epidemics around the world are highly trained specialists.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:23:01 Microbiologist, where did you get the 3% mortality rate from? Chinese media reports? Makes me doubt anything else you say

Microbiologist here. Do the math yourself: about 54 deaths to 1700 total confirmed cases. Numbers will change almost hourly, but the mortality rate is unlikely to change much unless there is under-reporting of total cases, in which case it will decrease.

Use some common sense, do you put a huge city under quarantine because of 54 deaths and 1700 cases

Microbiologist again.

Definitely. If they hadn't, there wouldn't have been just 54 deaths. This is public health in action. When unexplained deaths start to occur in one location and you suspect a virus, and it's te height of travel season for your citizens to boot, you need to err on the side of caution, ASAP, in case the mortality rate and/or speed of infection is higher than you think. China was heavily criticized for its handling of Avian flu and SARS, and evidently has learned from its mistakes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:23:01 Microbiologist, where did you get the 3% mortality rate from? Chinese media reports? Makes me doubt anything else you say

Microbiologist here. Do the math yourself: about 54 deaths to 1700 total confirmed cases. Numbers will change almost hourly, but the mortality rate is unlikely to change much unless there is under-reporting of total cases, in which case it will decrease.

Use some common sense, do you put a huge city under quarantine because of 54 deaths and 1700 cases

Microbiologist again.

Definitely. If they hadn't, there wouldn't have been just 54 deaths. This is public health in action. When unexplained deaths start to occur in one location and you suspect a virus, and it's te height of travel season for your citizens to boot, you need to err on the side of caution, ASAP, in case the mortality rate and/or speed of infection is higher than you think. China was heavily criticized for its handling of Avian flu and SARS, and evidently has learned from its mistakes.

The virus is showing up all over China and all over the world. This "quarantine" isn't sensible or helpful.

[Anonymous]

”The virus is showing up all over China and all over the world. This "quarantine" isn't sensible or helpful.“

You can’t be serious. Better to quarantine rather than let all those people loose to travel the world and spread the virus even more.

Quarantining a virus always helps in the fight to contain infections. That’s like, basic knowledge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Forgot to identify myself - I'm the microbiologist at 23:36.

To respond to 23:34, we can definitely compare different epidemics! Mortality rates are known and even if the previous SARS epidemic had data reporting issues, the mortality rates are accurate. I'm not sure why you're assuming they're not, or why you are so concerned with data reliability. The network of virologists monitoring pandemics and epidemics around the world are highly trained specialists.

No one trusts the data out of China. No one. Not even highly trained specialists in country at this time feel the data is reliable. Besides the ‘fog of war’ like problems that always skews initial reports there are political and government considerations at play. Statistical models from Imperial College and HKU both are showing a massively higher infection rate than is being reported and mainstream media are running stories regularly throwing into question the accuracy of the mortality rate. Even the Post had a story on this last week. Social media users in China are also publishing death certificates that show discrepancies.

It’s just not reliable data at this time. Conclusions based on faulty data are faulty conclusions, just as statements proclaiming ‘the world is ending—panic’.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pneumonia-like-deaths-in-wuhan-some-wonder-if-china-virus-count-is-too-low/2020/01/22/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/2019-nCoV-outbreak-report-22-01-2020.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:With respect, no scientist should be making blanket ‘compared to SARS’ or “compared to seasonal flu” statements given the massive difference in data reliability that currently exists. You cannot make these comparisons with any academic rigor at this time.

Seasonal influenza reporting is considerably more reliable and tested than media reported numbers produced this week (yes, this week only) from Chinese government sources. SARS data has been scruitinized for over a decade. While I’m not a panic induced alarmist, ‘it’s not as bad as SARS’ is still, from a data standpoint, an unreliable position at this time.

Exactly

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:”The virus is showing up all over China and all over the world. This "quarantine" isn't sensible or helpful.“

You can’t be serious. Better to quarantine rather than let all those people loose to travel the world and spread the virus even more.

Quarantining a virus always helps in the fight to contain infections. That’s like, basic knowledge.

Over 900,000 people left Wuhan the week before the travel lockdown started. This quarantine may have been a good idea weeks ago, but then it would have been crazy then. Now it just doesn't make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Forgot to identify myself - I'm the microbiologist at 23:36.

To respond to 23:34, we can definitely compare different epidemics! Mortality rates are known and even if the previous SARS epidemic had data reporting issues, the mortality rates are accurate. I'm not sure why you're assuming they're not, or why you are so concerned with data reliability. The network of virologists monitoring pandemics and epidemics around the world are highly trained specialists.

No one trusts the data out of China. No one.

Not true, obviously the 23:01 microbiologist trusts it