2024 Senate Elections

[Anonymous]

Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

There were very few and no credible polling done of the Maryland primaries. I think most polls skipped the state as irrelevant. I wouldn't call it "another" major polling miss.

The big question is whether some of the Trone voters will now switch over to Larry Hogan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

There were very few and no credible polling done of the Maryland primaries. I think most polls skipped the state as irrelevant. I wouldn't call it "another" major polling miss.

The big question is whether some of the Trone voters will now switch over to Larry Hogan.

I was going to vote for Hogan over Trone but I've been spared that decision. Alsobrooks in November!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

There were very few and no credible polling done of the Maryland primaries. I think most polls skipped the state as irrelevant. I wouldn't call it "another" major polling miss.

The big question is whether some of the Trone voters will now switch over to Larry Hogan.

There are 11 polls from this year listed on 538. And they are from the same firms you see in the other trackers, like Emerson and

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Just like Trone just showed, sometimes $ doesn’t matter.

[Anonymous]

If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

There were very few and no credible polling done of the Maryland primaries. I think most polls skipped the state as irrelevant. I wouldn't call it "another" major polling miss.

The big question is whether some of the Trone voters will now switch over to Larry Hogan.

There are 11 polls from this year listed on 538. And they are from the same firms you see in the other trackers, like Emerson and

And they all missed, you say? It’s almost like the polls aren’t capturing the electorate.

Did anyone see Trump get kicked in the teeth in Maryland? I don’t think a good chunk of Republicans are coming home for the GOP anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alsobrooks projected to beat Trone in the MD Democratic Senate primary. Another major polling miss. Up until a few days ago, the polling averages had Trone up by 13+. It looks like Alsobrooks is going to win by 10 or so.

There were very few and no credible polling done of the Maryland primaries. I think most polls skipped the state as irrelevant. I wouldn't call it "another" major polling miss.

The big question is whether some of the Trone voters will now switch over to Larry Hogan.

There are 11 polls from this year listed on 538. And they are from the same firms you see in the other trackers, like Emerson and

And they all missed, you say? It’s almost like the polls aren’t capturing the electorate.

Did anyone see Trump get kicked in the teeth in Maryland? I don’t think a good chunk of Republicans are coming home for the GOP anymore.

35% of Republicans in my district (Raskin’s) voted for Haley over Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

If he votes for an abortion ban, his career is over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

Precisely. Hogan obviously isn't a wild-eyed crazy person like Hawley, Cruz, Vance or Tuberville. But he'd give those people power if he gives the Republicans the majority. He'd probably be kind of like Romney or Collins. He'd sometimes criticize the crazies and Trump, but when it comes down to it he'd vote along with them for the extremist judges, tax cuts for corporations, national abortion ban, etc.

If he votes for an abortion ban, his career is over.

And he would vote for an abortion ban, so let’s end his career in November.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the Dems are successful in painting Hogan as falling in line with MAGA despite his claims of independence, then Alsobrooks should do well in the fall.

He has said he’ll caucus with the GOP. Maga.

Why wouldn’t he caucus with GOP? He’s a Republican. He was recruited by McConnell. He’s anti-choice, pro corporate tax cuts. The only reason Hogan seemed “moderate“ is because Dems in the MD house and Senate kept him from implementing horrible right wing policies.

I agree he’s not a culture warrior except he’s anti-Choice, but who knows what he would’ve implemented had he thought he could’ve gotten away with it.

Anyone who thinks that Hogan’s going to have a moderating effect on the GOP Isn’t dealing with reality.

TLDR: A vote for Hogan is a vote for Senate leader, Ted Cruz/Josh Hawley

No, I agree with you. My point is just that Hogan wants to run away from the crazy, but he supports the crazy, hence he is the crazy. Democracy is on the edge of a cliff and another Republican in the Senate is just another vote to shove democracy over the edge.

[Anonymous]

Numbers, real votes, vs polls. Again, what people tell an anonymous poller is much different from what voters do in the polling booth.