Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/14htdwu/arch_conservative_joe_walsh_on_biden_and_ukraine/

[Anonymous]

UPDATE:

Belarus negotiated Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus. In exchange, all Wagner troops are “supposed” to sign crappy Russian .mil contracts for LESS pay.

And certainly more deadly assignments, as in: suicide missions. Payback is a you know what.

Word is: most Wagner troops are quietly going AWOL and heading home.

Putin did, however, learn who his friends are:

- Kyderov/ Chechen dictator: BEST NUMBER 1 FRIEND!

- Prigozhin: we are never, ever getting back together

- Kazakhstan: we were never really friends anyway

- Russian army: meh

- Belarus: do I have any other choice?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UPDATE:

Belarus negotiated Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus. In exchange, all Wagner troops are “supposed” to sign crappy Russian .mil contracts for LESS pay.

And certainly more deadly assignments, as in: suicide missions. Payback is a you know what.

Word is: most Wagner troops are quietly going AWOL and heading home.

Putin did, however, learn who his friends are:

- Kyderov/ Chechen dictator: BEST NUMBER 1 FRIEND!

- Prigozhin: we are never, ever getting back together

- Kazakhstan: we were never really friends anyway

- Russian army: meh

- Belarus: do I have any other choice?

I'm going to assume that the poster who can't spell Kadyrov has a similarly vague understanding what has transpired. Here's an alternative theory:

Wagner's base of registration is shifting to Belarus. It will become a Belarus proxy with its overseas operations in Africa, Libya, Syria, etc. unaffected. It will no longer have to contract with the Ministry of Defense.

Sources also report Prigozhin agreed to step down on terms most favorable to him, which means we should expect command changes at the top.

In the coming days we will know whether Prigozhin got what he wanted, or bet all he had.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Apparently the people were cheering the Wagner troops. Wonder why he stopped?

Because Prigo has no money. Someone ratted him out in St Petersburg and got hold of his hoard of cash that was all packed up ready to leave in vans. You can't take the Kremlin without money.

Somehow I'm betting that the owner of a global mercenary organization doesn't have all of his cash sitting in boxes in St. Petersburg. FFS he is making payroll in Africa.

Right. But 48M in St Petersburg is still a lot of bills he was planning to use right away, PP. Money in Africa can't get there fast enough.

My point wasn't that his money is IN Africa. But that he has to move money TO his mercenary groups regularly. He has a network of companies and he's been on sanctions lists since at least 2016, so he knows how to protect his wealth. His life is another matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Apparently the people were cheering the Wagner troops. Wonder why he stopped?

Because Prigo has no money. Someone ratted him out in St Petersburg and got hold of his hoard of cash that was all packed up ready to leave in vans. You can't take the Kremlin without money.

Somehow I'm betting that the owner of a global mercenary organization doesn't have all of his cash sitting in boxes in St. Petersburg. FFS he is making payroll in Africa.

Right. But 48M in St Petersburg is still a lot of bills he was planning to use right away, PP. Money in Africa can't get there fast enough.

My point wasn't that his money is IN Africa. But that he has to move money TO his mercenary groups regularly. He has a network of companies and he's been on sanctions lists since at least 2016, so he knows how to protect his wealth. His life is another matter.

Not so easy to just kill a man able to roll tanks up to Moscow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Apparently the people were cheering the Wagner troops. Wonder why he stopped?

Because Prigo has no money. Someone ratted him out in St Petersburg and got hold of his hoard of cash that was all packed up ready to leave in vans. You can't take the Kremlin without money.

Somehow I'm betting that the owner of a global mercenary organization doesn't have all of his cash sitting in boxes in St. Petersburg. FFS he is making payroll in Africa.

Right. But 48M in St Petersburg is still a lot of bills he was planning to use right away, PP. Money in Africa can't get there fast enough.

My point wasn't that his money is IN Africa. But that he has to move money TO his mercenary groups regularly. He has a network of companies and he's been on sanctions lists since at least 2016, so he knows how to protect his wealth. His life is another matter.

Not so easy to just kill a man able to roll tanks up to Moscow.

Meh.

He might want to check first if his tea tastes like plutonium. And avoid walking past any windows on the 2nd floor or above.

Anyone can run Wagner.

And most of his troops in the Ukraine war just lost most of their enthusiasm.

Putin remains a master strategist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UPDATE:

Belarus negotiated Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus. In exchange, all Wagner troops are “supposed” to sign crappy Russian .mil contracts for LESS pay.

And certainly more deadly assignments, as in: suicide missions. Payback is a you know what.

Word is: most Wagner troops are quietly going AWOL and heading home.

Putin did, however, learn who his friends are:

- Kyderov/ Chechen dictator: BEST NUMBER 1 FRIEND!

- Prigozhin: we are never, ever getting back together

- Kazakhstan: we were never really friends anyway

- Russian army: meh

- Belarus: do I have any other choice?

I'm going to assume that the poster who can't spell Kadyrov has a similarly vague understanding what has transpired. Here's an alternative theory:

Wagner's base of registration is shifting to Belarus. It will become a Belarus proxy with its overseas operations in Africa, Libya, Syria, etc. unaffected. It will no longer have to contract with the Ministry of Defense.

Sources also report Prigozhin agreed to step down on terms most favorable to him, which means we should expect command changes at the top.

In the coming days we will know whether Prigozhin got what he wanted, or bet all he had.

DP. No Prigozhin is dead in a week. Wagner personnel are used by Russian military as cannon fodder till none are left.

[Anonymous]

This does not seem over.

[Anonymous]

Russia was more calm about a literal warlord rolling up to moscow than Americans over j6

You tell me which country is more stable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Apparently the people were cheering the Wagner troops. Wonder why he stopped?

Because Prigo has no money. Someone ratted him out in St Petersburg and got hold of his hoard of cash that was all packed up ready to leave in vans. You can't take the Kremlin without money.

Somehow I'm betting that the owner of a global mercenary organization doesn't have all of his cash sitting in boxes in St. Petersburg. FFS he is making payroll in Africa.

Right. But 48M in St Petersburg is still a lot of bills he was planning to use right away, PP. Money in Africa can't get there fast enough.

My point wasn't that his money is IN Africa. But that he has to move money TO his mercenary groups regularly. He has a network of companies and he's been on sanctions lists since at least 2016, so he knows how to protect his wealth. His life is another matter.

Not so easy to just kill a man able to roll tanks up to Moscow.

Meh.

He might want to check first if his tea tastes like plutonium. And avoid walking past any windows on the 2nd floor or above.

Anyone can run Wagner.

And most of his troops in the Ukraine war just lost most of their enthusiasm.

Putin remains a master strategist.

Eh. No. Putin is now shown he can't keep the country secure. He had to let an insurrectionist the FSB announced they would arrest slide. Can anyone on this blog claim they've ever heard the infallible, all-powerful Putin do such a thing before?

But Prigozhin isn't suicidal and he isn't a fool. So far, he's managed to stay alive and relevant. He also chose regrouping versus a 'final-stand' so he can regroup his forces in Belarus.

Belarus is the perfect place for Prigozhin to get a foothold into power. The current speculation is Lukashenko fled to Turkey (we'll see if it's true, but he had one foot in the grave anyway..). Maybe can be the next Kadyrov. Maybe he can choose to roll to Moscow once Putin is dead. Maybe he can raid the country's banks and slip away to someplace quiet. Who knows. As far as money goes, there's always another golden sugar-daddy out there.

The question you all need to ask is, "who is the most dangerous man alive right now to Shoigu, Putin, and everyone in the Kremlin?"

[Anonymous]

Wagner being based out of Belarus is a win for wagner, win for Putin, short term gets lukasheno in better graces with Putin but medium term Wagner could take over Belarus and suddenly they have their own entire country

Imagine if bx or triple canopy had semi sovereign control over Montana

[Anonymous]

Oh btw - you also need to ask if Prigozhin will get his hands on the nukes just transferred there..

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-wont-tell-us-number-nuclear-warheads-belarus-2023-06-23/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wagner being based out of Belarus is a win for wagner, win for Putin, short term gets lukasheno in better graces with Putin but medium term Wagner could take over Belarus and suddenly they have their own entire country

Imagine if bx or triple canopy had semi sovereign control over Montana

There is a warlord already in Belarus. Bettas fish will always fight each other.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those of you hoping for a "coup" or regime change.......

Does it occur to you that regime change might make Russia even worse?
I think Putin is a dangerous dictator, but will people from the Wagner Group be better?

I’m no expert (and some here actually are; I barely follow this stuff) but yes, I know it could be worse. The thing is that Putin is terrible. For two quick examples, his invasion of Ukraine and his treatment of Alexei Navalny.

Also my weakly hoping for Putin to be deposed isn’t really going to move the needle anywhere. I just wish Putin were gone and that some of the promise of democracy that Russia had in the early 90s could be realized.

Russia lived a hungry life under that promise and they won’t forget it. They are completely disillusioned about the West and democracy (didn’t turn out well for them). I don’t think there is any hope now. It will always be some level of autocracy

💯

It’s as if people have no contact or Russian knowledge

There was a good foreign affairs piece recently on how Russia’s future lies to the east.

Russia needs to stop looking west as they have done for 400 years.

The reform Russia needs is to see the east as equals and not through a misguided racial superiority lens — 400 years of chasing European acceptance as been for naught.

Democracy and being a “Western European country” is not for Russia and deep down even the normal Russian person doesn’t want this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UPDATE:

Belarus negotiated Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus. In exchange, all Wagner troops are “supposed” to sign crappy Russian .mil contracts for LESS pay.

And certainly more deadly assignments, as in: suicide missions. Payback is a you know what.

Word is: most Wagner troops are quietly going AWOL and heading home.

Putin did, however, learn who his friends are:

- Kyderov/ Chechen dictator: BEST NUMBER 1 FRIEND!

- Prigozhin: we are never, ever getting back together

- Kazakhstan: we were never really friends anyway

- Russian army: meh

- Belarus: do I have any other choice?

Rostov and most of the rest of Russia: meh