2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Good points in here re accuracy of polling (different than poll aggregators like Silver/538/RCP)

[Anonymous]

Just for fun sharing Nate Silver’s polls from early August. At that time he showed Harris ahead and y’all thought he was the second coming, lolol.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-says-election-is-now-a-toss-up-as-harris-takes-polling-lead

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/08/us/politics/trump-and-harris-times-siena-poll.html

According to the liberal New York Times, Trump leading Harris 48-47%.

It seems like Harris hiding from reporters and voters is not working and you can’t win an election based on “vibes.”

[Anonymous]

Not a poll, but FWIW Professor Allan Lichtman has just released his official prediction for 2024:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/09/05/harris-trump-lichtman-election-prediction.html

The results are in, and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election — at least according to the historian dubbed the "Nostradamus" of presidential election predictions.

It's the latest election prophecy from Allan Lichtman, an American University distinguished professor who boasts of having successfully predicted the results of every U.S. presidential race since 1984.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Lol. If you want to be taken seriously, don't put the Biden "won" in quotes. Are you paying attention that even trump now casually just says he lost in 2020. The trump won in 2020 nonsense is so over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

NYT overestimated Biden’s support among white voters last time, too. My sense is that they seem to oversample liberal whites.

[Anonymous]

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[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

But not because young people are significantly more a Republican. Young people are more likely to identify as independent than other generations. Which given the last 10 years in politics isn’t exactly shocking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Scary!