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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly [b]will not accept[/b] a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died? 
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok) 
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

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Russia is in trouble.  They will not get out of sanctions without paying trillions to Ukraine.  Most likely outcome is just a general slide towards nothingness.  Nothing positive to be sure.  But right now Russia can't even fight Ukraine so they are well on the path.  [/quote]

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