A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

I don't have a crystal ball, it's way too early to even try to predict turnout.

Imagine for example it's Bernie vs. Trump. I suspect many moderate Dems would remain home, and most center to right voters would show up to vote Trump.

But that's what I'm asking - how those who do predict Trump winning again (NO NO NO NO) incorporate 2018 into their analysis.

I'll tell you why. Mid-year elections following a new president's election typically swing opposite of the new president's party. This is true of past presidents and it was true for Trump. I will concede that Republican's loses in 2018 were quite severe, even when put in historical context. I believe this was true because 2018 was the first opportunity that Democrats really got to act out what they believe was an unfathomable 2016 election result. Democrats were going strong on the Russian collusion theory, and Mueller was handing out indictments left and right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

Well you are one of the small minority. Vote for the conman, white supremacist all you want but he won't respect you.

I suspect Trump respects PP more than you do.

Oh yeah I don't respect any of the cult 45 members who care not about his constant lies, fraud, temper tantrum worse than a two year old, or his uncouth behavior. But race has nothing to do with it.

When you disrespect fellow citizens, do you think that makes them more or less likely to vote for Trump?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

I don't have a crystal ball, it's way too early to even try to predict turnout.

Imagine for example it's Bernie vs. Trump. I suspect many moderate Dems would remain home, and most center to right voters would show up to vote Trump.

But that's what I'm asking - how those who do predict Trump winning again (NO NO NO NO) incorporate 2018 into their analysis.

I'll tell you why. Mid-year elections following a new president's election typically swing opposite of the new president's party. This is true of past presidents and it was true for Trump. I will concede that Republican's loses in 2018 were quite severe, even when put in historical context. I believe this was true because 2018 was the first opportunity that Democrats really got to act out what they believe was an unfathomable 2016 election result. Democrats were going strong on the Russian collusion theory, and Mueller was handing out indictments left and right.

And now with Mueller loudly confirming there was NO EXONERATION, the avg approval that never went above 43% isn't gonna any higher. The 2020 election is gonna fought on new battle ground states TX,GA,AZ etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

Well you are one of the small minority. Vote for the conman, white supremacist all you want but he won't respect you.

I suspect Trump respects PP more than you do.

Oh yeah I don't respect any of the cult 45 members who care not about his constant lies, fraud, temper tantrum worse than a two year old, or his uncouth behavior. But race has nothing to do with it.

When you disrespect fellow citizens, do you think that makes them more or less likely to vote for Trump?

Dont give me the crap. The liar-in-chief disrespects the office and everyone who didn't vote for him. Let us start with him about showing RESPECT.

Not that the conservative gives any RESPECT TO THE DEMOCRATS either. We are a divided nation and the dems have a majority. The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. So no Americans aren't behind the GOP. Let us see how the GOP get some new, diverse, young and college educated women voters to back them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

Give it time. They are super motivated now because they are idealistic, and they've conjured up an image of what an ideal candidate the eventual Democratic nominee will be. They believe that man/woman is going to embody all that is good and wholesome about the intentions of the left. Just wait until the actual final candidates emerge. If 2016 is any indication, the potential nominees will tear each other apart and the corrupt Democratic party machine will all but ensure that the wrong candidate gets nominated. As we head into election day with a Democratic candidate with utterly no redeeming quality other than he/she is not Trump, any residual energy that Democratic voters feel will only keep them awake long enough to seek that Trump has won, again.

So I guess let me ask again, then: How does that jibe with what happened in 2018? Trump wasn't on the ballot. No one running for office was a perfect saint - they were mostly just good, reasonable alternatives to a Republican. Why do you think that 2018 isn't important when you consider 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated.
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes.
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.


Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated.
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes.
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.


Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone.

DP: many of those points are quite infantile and still full of too much senseless name-calling, so I have zero interest in a point-by-point discussion.

Instead, let me ask you this: back in May of 2015, who did you think would win in November of 2016, and for what 12 reasons?

My point is, it's way too early in the process to engage in such nuanced analysis.

Now, a new factor at play, that many PPs have described very well, is that for a number of reasons Trump's results have so far been better than expected. I understand you believe the opposite, but I'd encourage you to use this thread to learn more about what other people think.

It should help you find the most appropriate Dem challenger and platform

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

So that's your theory. He was elected once, he's the same - incumbents enjoy an advantage, and so he'll get elected again.

OK! I hope that isn't the case. But I can see your reasoning at least.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated.
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes.
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.


Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone.

DP: many of those points are quite infantile and still full of too much senseless name-calling, so I have zero interest in a point-by-point discussion.

Instead, let me ask you this: back in May of 2015, who did you think would win in November of 2016, and for what 12 reasons?

My point is, it's way too early in the process to engage in such nuanced analysis.

Now, a new factor at play, that many PPs have described very well, is that for a number of reasons Trump's results have so far been better than expected. I understand you believe the opposite, but I'd encourage you to use this thread to learn more about what other people think.

It should help you find the most appropriate Dem challenger and platform

Yeah sure, infantile for the "poorly educated" that the conman loves. You have Zero interest in any discussion because all you and your cult can do is demean others BUT never can make a reasonable data based discussion. I can't learn much from the conned infantiles who support a conman, liar and destroyer of America and the worst "Precedent" in American history. Good Bye.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated.
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes.
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.


Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone.

DP: many of those points are quite infantile and still full of too much senseless name-calling, so I have zero interest in a point-by-point discussion.

Instead, let me ask you this: back in May of 2015, who did you think would win in November of 2016, and for what 12 reasons?

My point is, it's way too early in the process to engage in such nuanced analysis.

Now, a new factor at play, that many PPs have described very well, is that for a number of reasons Trump's results have so far been better than expected. I understand you believe the opposite, but I'd encourage you to use this thread to learn more about what other people think.

It should help you find the most appropriate Dem challenger and platform

He didn't even win and lost by 3 million votes. He was selected by the slavery era EC. The reason he was selected by the EC is point #5. Thats about it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip.

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign. Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated.
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes.
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.


Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone.

DP: many of those points are quite infantile and still full of too much senseless name-calling, so I have zero interest in a point-by-point discussion.

Instead, let me ask you this: back in May of 2015, who did you think would win in November of 2016, and for what 12 reasons?

My point is, it's way too early in the process to engage in such nuanced analysis.

Now, a new factor at play, that many PPs have described very well, is that for a number of reasons Trump's results have so far been better than expected. I understand you believe the opposite, but I'd encourage you to use this thread to learn more about what other people think.

It should help you find the most appropriate Dem challenger and platform

back in May 2015, there was no candidate who was as terrible as the current liar. But now we have one who is a life long fraud and a majority of America can't stand him. He will go down as the worst and his cult better be ready for universal healthcare, tax on the rich, climate change action, Comprehensive Immigration reform and Comprehensive Criminal justice reform. The country is a changing and you are the neanderthals.

Progressives take the country forward and at best the CONS could do is slow down the change. Thats the way it goes. Too bad being a CON, because you always end up on the losing side of MOST issues.

[Anonymous]

I can't wait until the FBI announced it's reopening an investigation into Trump 10 days before 2020

It's going to be beautiful symmetry