Reply to A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.[/quote]

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.[/quote]

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24[/quote]

Still lower than 2016, right?[/quote]

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.[/quote]

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle [/quote]

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip. [/quote]

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign.  Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming [/quote]

So that's your theory. He was elected once, he's the same - incumbents enjoy an advantage, and so he'll get elected again.

OK! I hope that isn't the case. But I can see your reasoning at least.[/quote]

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